Ong Kian Ming | Feb 2, 11
Malaysiakini
ANALYSIS
Right off the bat, I’d like to state that the Tenang by-election result, including who voted for whom and at what percentage, is far less important than the property damage and hardship experienced by the voters in that constituency and in other parts of Johor as a result of the devastating floods.
Having said that, I still have the responsibility of analysing the by-election results. I had earlier predicted that the BN would win the by-election with a majority of 3,200, a 700-vote increase to the majority it got at the 2008 general elections.
The turnout assumption among the Malay, Chinese and Indian voters were 77%, 71% and 58% respectively and the support for the BN by ethnic group were 85%, 35% and 80%.
The eventual majority was 3,700 with the BN winning 70% of the popular vote on a lower than expected turnout of 67%.
One of the points of contention with regard to the election results has been whether or not the BN’s share of the Chinese vote has increased or decreased.
The DAP has said that Pakatan Rakyat’s share of the Chinese vote has increased to 70% based on the results in the 96% Chinese-majority Bandar Labis Tengah polling station. MCA has said that the BN’s share of the Chinese vote has increased to 45% based on the fact that the BN won three out of the four Chinese-majority polling stations.
At the same time, there is broad agreement that the Malay and Indian vote did indeed swing back to the BN, which explains the 1,200 increase in BN’s winning majority.
Is the DAP or the MCA right? Does it even matter? Continue reading “Soi Lek wrong on Chinese support”