Category: Finance

Malaysia’s Development Strategy Revisited (1)
by Dr. Mohamed Ariff*

Malaysia has turned 180 degrees since Independence in 1957, transforming itself into a thriving modern economy and leapfrogging from a low-income to a middle-income trajectory. The country owes its prosperity to its economic openness, with trade as the lifeblood and foreign direct investment (FDI) as the backbone of the economy.

Economic Openness and Vulnerability to External Shocks

The price Malaysia has had to pay for this success is greater vulnerability to external shocks, but it has learned to cope with cyclical ups and downs with remarkable dexterity. This does not mean, however, that all of the crises in the Malaysian economy were caused entirely by external forces, as if domestic policy missteps had nothing to do with them. The Malaysian experience shows that crises tend to be blessings in disguise, as they force the authorities to step back, take a hard look at their policies, learn lessons and move on. Continue reading “Solution to the problems of economic openness is not less openness but more openness”

Equity Restructuring and Ownership

The Plan restates that the target of attaining at least 30% Bumiputra corporate equity ownership at macro level remains. It goes on to indicate that the focus will be on promoting genuine economic participation, consistent with the objective of sustainable high growth, rather than corporate equity allocation.

The Plan proclaims that this will be achieved through more transparent, market-friendly and merit-based instruments, focused on:

• Strengthening Bumiputra entrepreneurship to help create competitive businesses in high impact sectors;

• Increasing wealth ownership beyond corporate equity to include other properties and business assets such as retail space landed properties,
commercial buildings, intellectual properties and other services through pooling of funds and institutional investment; and

• Promoting Bumiputra representation in high paying jobs through enhanced capability building and demand-side incentives.

These statements can be cautiously welcomed as they represent a nuanced shift. However, if the past is any indicator, this shift may be no more than illusionary and a mutation of the NEP. Continue reading “The 10th Malaysia Five Year Plan : Old Wine in New Bottles – Part 6 (Equity Restructuring/Ownership)”

Poverty

Chapter 4 of the Plan document together with several Tables dealing with Thrust 3 in the Appendices present fairly detailed statistics on poverty and income distribution.

In a somewhat self-congratulatory tone, the Plan proclaims that hardcore poverty was reduced from 1.2% in 2004 to 0.7% in 2009 and that the incidence of overall poverty fell from 5.7% in 2004 to 3.8% in 2009. These claims are questionable because of the underlying methodology employed in deriving these estimates.

In the first place there is no indication as to how the Poverty Lines were estimated. Assuming that the methodology used mirrors that used in the 9th Plan, the bar to define poverty is set at far too low a level.

In the second place, the use of “households” rather than “persons” distorts the measurement.

On the flawed basis, 228,400 households were categorized as poor. It is most significant that of these 99,100 were in Sabah with another 27,100 in Sarawak. Thus, there were a disproportionate number of the poor in these two states highlighting gross neglect by the Federal government of Malaysians in these two states. Continue reading “The 10th Malaysia Five Year Plan : Old Wine in New Bottles – Part 5 (Poverty)”

The Five Thrusts of the 10th Malaysia Plan

The Prime Minister stressed that the 10th Malaysia Plan is oriented around five key strategic thrusts, namely:

* Stimulating Economic Growth – implementing a policy framework that will galvanize the private sector and promote trade and investment;

* Moving towards Inclusive Socio-Economic Development – focusing government support on those most in need and reforming affirmative action policies;

* Developing and Retaining a First-World Talent Base – improving schools, providing skills training to those in the workforce and implementing important labour market reforms;

* Building an Environment that Enhances Quality of Life – investing in housing, transport, healthcare, utilities, crime prevention and the environment to support economic activity and improved living standards; and

* Transforming Government to Transform Malaysia – building on the success of the Government Transformation Program to continue to improve government performance and transparency to best serve the people

The question that arises is: How different are these in comparison with the corresponding thrusts that were outlined in the 9th Five Year Plan? Continue reading “The 10th Malaysia Five Year Plan : Old Wine in New Bottles – Part 4 (5 Thrusts of TMP)”

Unlearnt Lessons from the Past: Where have we come from?

A brief review is in order to understand how the nation got to the precarious point best amplified by a Minister sternly warning that Malaysia is heading towards bankruptcy by the end of the decade.

Malaysia is more integrated into the global economy than many other countries of a similar size and at a comparable stage of development. Globalization is a fact of life. It has contributed both positively and negatively to Malaysian development. On the upside, integration with the global economy permitted the nation to prosper through trade and flows of FDI in the years prior to the East Asian Crisis of 1997. There was rapid economic growth, rising income levels, declining poverty and unemployment and a somewhat more egalitarian distribution of wealth. A contributing factor was the fact that Malaysia was blessed with a rich resource base – its forests and oil and gas. It had reasonably well functioning institutions in the form of an established public service, a modestly independent judiciary and institutions that measured well against those in other developing countries. The nation progressed despite creeping corruption, growing race polarization, authoritarianism and a general deterioration in the delivery of public services. The early 1990s saw a degree of deregulation and the privatization that gave momentum to modest reforms. The economic fundamentals were essentially sound with the budget largely balanced, and low inflation and robust growth. These outcomes occurred despite the constraints and distortions imposed by the NEP.

The 1997 East Asia crisis provided a rude awakening. Absence of accountability, lack of transparency and the growing cronyism, nepotism and the megalomaniac obsession with mega projects Continue reading "The 10th Malaysia Five Year Plan : Old Wine in New Bottles – Part 3 (Unlearnt lessons from the past)"