Political change in Malaysia: Will there be a new normal?

Abdillah Noh
Straits Times
9th November 2015

Despite voices calling for reform, there is a leadership void

Talk of political change in Malaysia has become more intense in the last few months.

Malaysia’s continued political imbroglio puts the economy at risk. Even with an improved fiscal deficit and an economy averaging growth of 5 per cent, critics are not impressed, preferring to focus on the political reform story.

The big question they raise is: Will there be a new normal in Malaysian politics? Continue reading “Political change in Malaysia: Will there be a new normal?”

If DAP and Pakatan Harapan are only interested in our own political interests, we will do everything possible to ensure that Najib will remain as Prime Minister and lead UMNO/BN into the 14th General Elections because he will be an easier target

If DAP and Pakatan Harapan are only interested in our own political interests, we will do everything possible to ensure that Datuk Seri Najib Razak will remain as Prime Minister and lead UMNO/Barisan Nasional into the 14th General Elections because he will be an easier target with so many political and economic scandals exploding all over the place.

We will not force an issue of a vote of confidence in Parliament, whether in the form of a no-confidence motion or in defeating the government on an important measure like the Second Reading of the 2016 Budget which will be voted on Monday 16th November at the end of the three-day Ministerial winding-up of the budget debate.

But our national interests must override all our political party interests for we want to send a clear and unmistakable message that the present state of national affairs where confidence, whether national or international, has plumbed to the lowest depths in the nation’s history, cannot continue for the next two-and-half-years before the 14th General Elections, as the country cannot afford the great economic and nation-building costs of such prolonged crisis of confidence.

November 16. when there will be a vote in the Second Reading of the 2016 Budget, will be Najib’s first test of leadership in Parliament.

Pakatan Harapan has 72 Members of Parliament, but only 71 votes, as I have been suspended from Parliament for six months. PAS has declared that it will not support any effort to vote out the 2016 Budget.

In these circumstances, is it possible to expect 41 Members of Parliament from UMNO/Barisan Nasional to cross the floor on Nov. 16 to support Pakatan Harapan Members of Parliament to vote down Najib’s 2016 Budget by ensuring that there is an absolute simple majority of at least 112 votes out of a Parliament of 222 Members of Parlaiment? Continue reading “If DAP and Pakatan Harapan are only interested in our own political interests, we will do everything possible to ensure that Najib will remain as Prime Minister and lead UMNO/BN into the 14th General Elections because he will be an easier target”

Deal with reality, Najib is staying in power

– Koon Yew Yin
The Malaysian Insider
3 November 2015

Lately the Internet has been filled with stories of how Prime Minister Najib Razak is losing ground in Umno and likely to resign soon.

Much speculation is going on about what is happening behind the scenes in the Umno Supreme Council and the party’s divisional leaders.

There is also a lot of chatter about the infighting and horse trading that is taking place among the supporters of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah – all seen as contenders to succeed Najib should he be toppled.

In my view this is all sound and fury which signify nothing. Also that it will not amount to much. Continue reading “Deal with reality, Najib is staying in power”

As Najib’s Prime Minister popularity rating among Malay voters have fallen below 30%, the three million UMNO members must decide whether UMNO’s survival in the next general election will lie in having a new UMNO head and Prime Minister

It is reported today that at least 154 out of 191 UMNO division chiefs want the party’s supreme council to take against errant party leaders, referring to former Deputy Prime Minister and still Deputy UMNO President Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, former Rural and Regional Development Minister and UMNO Vice President, Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, and even former Prime Minister Tun Mahathir and former Cabinet Minister and former UMNO Secretary-General Tan Sri Sanusi Junid.

This is the result of an internal poll in UMNO conducted among 170 UMNO division leaders in an exclusive WhatsApp programme.

However, the result may be different if a poll is conducted among the three million UMNO members as it is becoming quite clear that for the first time since Merdeka, UMNO has never been so fragmented and fractured between the 300 UMNO chieftains versus the three million UMNO members.

The 300 UMNO chieftains are primarily Umno Supreme Council members and Umno division chiefs who are mostly in the pockets of the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak the majority of whom will toe the Najib line, as compared to the three million Umno members most of whom must be very embarrassed by the two Najib mega-scandals of the RM50 billion 1MDB and RM2.6 billion “donation”, and the lack of political will to resolve these two scandals until they mushroom to become international scandals, and the move to penalise UMNO leaders for speaking up against these two scandals.

All over the country, the question that is commonly asked is how long Najib can survive as the sixth Prime Minister of Malaysia, whether he would suffer the fate of his predecessor, Tun Abdullah in having to give up the Prime Ministership before the end of his term. Continue reading “As Najib’s Prime Minister popularity rating among Malay voters have fallen below 30%, the three million UMNO members must decide whether UMNO’s survival in the next general election will lie in having a new UMNO head and Prime Minister”

UMNO leaders should not count chicken before they are hatched expecting UMNO/BN to replicate Singapore PAP’s rebound and resounding election victory in 14GE in Malaysia

Strangely enough, many UMNO leaders are celebrating Singapore PAP’s general election results last Friday on 11th September 2015 as if the UMNO/Barisan Nasional would be able to replicate Singapore PAP’s rebound and resounding general election victory in the 14th General Election in 26 – 32 months’ time.

In Singapore PAP’s resounding victory, the Singapore ruling party scored 69.9% of the popular vote, up from the record low of 60.1% in the previous general election, and won 83 of 89 parliamentary seats.

It came within a hair’s breadth of taking five more seats in one hotly contested district where a recount was held.

Last Friday’s mandate is Lee Hsien Loong’s strongest since 2001.

What of Malaysia?
Continue reading “UMNO leaders should not count chicken before they are hatched expecting UMNO/BN to replicate Singapore PAP’s rebound and resounding election victory in 14GE in Malaysia”

Bersih not about rhetorics

– Bong Chan Siong
The Malaysian Insider
21 August 2015

What Bersih wants? You know. I know. A lot of people know. So it is clear what Bersih wants.

Yes, Bersih wants a clean government. Bersih wants free and fair elections. Now, Bersih also wants to “save the economy”.

Why does Bersih want these? For the lack of vocabulary, #BetterNation heh.

And how to achieve these? The specifics of it? May I direct you to some of the recommendations made by Bersih.

Bersih’s 10 institutional reforms: Continue reading “Bersih not about rhetorics”

New Pakatan Rakyat to be formed must not repeat the mistakes of Pakatan Rakyat which died an early death because of the lack of trustworthiness of one of its component parties

Recently, the PAS Deputy President Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man called for the revival of a united opposition amid the twin scandals of 1MDB and RM2.6 billion deposited into Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s oersonal bank accounts in AmBank just before the 13th General Election.

He said this was the “crucial hour for all opposition parties to unite” and sit together to find common ground and minimise their differences.

I admit to great wariness of such a call after the early death of Pakatan Rakyat despite the high hopes and trust placed on it by Malaysians regardless of race, religion or region rooting for the first political change on the national landscape, vesting it with 52% of the popular vote in the 13th General Election. Continue reading “New Pakatan Rakyat to be formed must not repeat the mistakes of Pakatan Rakyat which died an early death because of the lack of trustworthiness of one of its component parties”

Reading the tea leaves of 1MDB

– Meredith Weiss
The Malaysian Insider
9 August 2015

The 1MDB scandal shows that Malaysia is in desperate need of political finance reform. But can the country clean up its messy “money politics”?

By the time this piece comes out, even if it’s only a few hours from the writing, the array of known facts about Malaysia’s bewilderingly complex 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal will almost certainly have changed.

There may well be another conspiracy theory or two making the rounds by then, and some creative new threat/spin/bombast from one or another of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s currently trusted spokesmen. Continue reading “Reading the tea leaves of 1MDB”

The new coalition of Malaysian progressives – whether Pakatan Rakyat 2.0, New Pakatan Rakyat or Harapan Rakyat – will be sequel to 13GE battle in 14GE to rekindle hopes and aspirations of Malaysians for political change in Putrajaya

Five days ago, I posed the question whether PAS could lose Kelantan in the next 14th General Election.

I said that based on the 13th General Election performance, if there is a 4% swing of voters against PAS in Kelantan in the next poll, PAS will lose power in the state it had governed for 25 years since 1990.

Is a 4% swing in a state an unlikely happening?

In the 13th General Election in Kedah, PAS and Pakatan Rakyat lost the Kedah State Government because there was a 3.8% swing of the voters against PAS.

The voter swing against PAS was even greater and more overwhelming during the 2004 General Election in Terengganu, where there was a 15% swing of voters against PAS, sweeping out the Terengganu PAS State Government after only one term of Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi as the Terengganu Mentri Besar.

There is no doubt that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) would have been wiped out in the next general election if Pakatan Rakyat had contested the next polls in total disregard of the violation of the PR Common Policy Framework by one of the component parties, with hudud as a controversial issue in the election campaign. Continue reading “The new coalition of Malaysian progressives – whether Pakatan Rakyat 2.0, New Pakatan Rakyat or Harapan Rakyat – will be sequel to 13GE battle in 14GE to rekindle hopes and aspirations of Malaysians for political change in Putrajaya”

Pakatan Rakyat would have been wiped out in the 14GE if it had contested the next polls in total disregard of the violation of the PR Common Policy Framework by one of the component parties

Three days ago, I posed the question whether PAS could lose Kelantan in the next 14th General Election.

I said that based on the 13th General Election performance, if there is a 4% swing of voters against PAS in Kelantan in the next poll, PAS will lose power in the state it had governed for 25 years since 1990.

Is a 4% swing in a state an unlikely happening?

In the 13th General Election in Kedah, PAS and Pakatan Rakyat lost the Kedah State Government because there was a 3.8% swing of the voters against PAS.

The voter swing against PAS was even more overwhelming as it was nearly four-fold during the 2004 General Election in Terengganu, where there was a 15% swing of voters against PAS, sweeping out the Terengganu PAS State Government after only one term of Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi as the Terengganu Mentri Besar. Continue reading “Pakatan Rakyat would have been wiped out in the 14GE if it had contested the next polls in total disregard of the violation of the PR Common Policy Framework by one of the component parties”

More politics or less in local elections?

– Liew Chin Tong
The Malaysian Insider
17 July 2015

There are two sets of contradictory ideas when it comes to the discussion of local democracy in Malaysia.

While many call for local elections, there are also some activists who call for “less politics, more professional appointments” to local councils.

At a conference on decentralisation in Penang in September 2014, a social activist and local councillor said Malaysians should emulate Seoul for electing an NGO mayor and he went on to argue the ills of having politicians at the council level. Continue reading “More politics or less in local elections?”

Ex-PAS man chides party over vote-splitting plan

By Terence Netto
Malaysiakini
Jul 16, 2015

PAS would be doing a ‘childish thing’ if the party decides to field candidates from its supporters’ wing against the DAP in the next general election.

This intention was broached by the Islamic party’s Election Director Mustafa Ali in the course of remarks made to a web news portal on the DAP and the new political entity being set up by PAS progressives who were routed in internal elections at the party’s muktamar held last month.

Hu Pang Chow, a founding member of the Dewan Himpunan Penyokong PAS (DHPP), said PAS should instead engage in public debates with the DAP over its vision of Malaysia rather than choose to split the votes for the opposition by fielding candidates against established opposition political parties.

“Engage in public debates with the DAP, outline your vision of a new Malaysia,” was the advice to PAS offered by Hu, who was chairman of DHPP from its inauguration in 2004 until 2010. Continue reading “Ex-PAS man chides party over vote-splitting plan”

Can PAS lose Kelantan in 14GE?

PAS leaders, like its President Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and former Secretary-General Datuk Mustafa Ali have publicly stated that the PAS Progressive’s Gerakan Harapan Baru will not last more than two years.

DAP had always been concerned particularly since the Kelantan floods last December as to whether PAS could again win the Kelantan state government in the next general election.

DAP had informed the top PAS leadership before the 13th General Election in May 2013 that Pakatan Rakyat was on the way to losing Kedah state government in the 13GE and changes were needed in the Kedah Pakatan Rakyat State administration but our concerns and warning fell on deaf ears.

Is it possible that PAS will lose the Kelantan state government in the next general election (GE14)?

Even though the political sentiment at the national level does not seem favourable to UMNO/BN due to factors such as the GST, 1MDB and the worsening economic situation, unique local factors may be sufficient such that PAS may lose votes in Kelantan even as the opposition gains more votes at the national level in the other states.

This is not unprecedented.
Continue reading “Can PAS lose Kelantan in 14GE?”

Cut losses in 30 BN bastions, DAP strategist says in polls gambit

The Malay Mail Online
July 10, 2015

KUALA LUMPUR, July 10 — The opposition should forgo 30 Barisan Nasional (BN) strongholds in its bid for Putrajaya and focus resources on 38 marginal seats to make Umno fall like dominoes, a DAP strategist said today.

Liew Chin Tong, the DAP election planner whose brazen plan to contest against Umno in its stronghold state Johor in Election 2013 saw Pakatan Rakyat taking five out of 26 seats, said the opposition should not stretch itself by trying to take seats where the odds of victory are low.

“Let’s be clear, elections are won or lost in marginal seats. For the new Opposition coalition to form the next government which is stable and with a strong legitimacy, defeating Umno in the Peninsula has to be the priority.

“But to cause Umno to fall like dominoes, we should not set our sights on its strongholds but work on where it is weakest: the marginal seats,” the DAP national political education director said in his analysis titled “The Peninsula Dominoes”. Continue reading “Cut losses in 30 BN bastions, DAP strategist says in polls gambit”

The Peninsula dominoes

— Liew Chin Tong
The Malay Mail Online
July 10, 2015

JULY 10 — Let’s be clear, elections are won or lost in marginal seats.

For the new Opposition coalition to form the next government which is stable and with a strong legitimacy, defeating Umno in the Peninsula has to be the priority.

But to cause Umno to fall like dominoes, we should not set our sights on its strongholds but work on where it is weakest: the marginal seats.

Umno won 88 seats nationally, of which 14 are in Sabah and one in Labuan. The rest of the 73 seats are in the Peninsula.

Of these 73 Peninsula seats, Umno would win at least 30 rural seats, which were “tailored-made” for Umno in the first place anyway, with the “built-in” Felda votes, postal votes and government machineries assisting Umno in campaign. The Opposition should forget about these 30 seats.

But the rest of the seats, which are mostly multi-ethnic, are ready to fall on the back of antipathy against Umno since 2008 among non-Malay voters and a Malay tsunami against the economic hardships imposed by the Umno government.

Of the 38 marginal seats which Barisan Nasional won with less than 10 percent margin in the last election, 32 are Umno seats.

This is the battleground where the next election will be fought.

Focusing on the middle ground with strong leadership, clarity in policy and a convincing message to unite all ethnic groups while riding on the wave of a brewing Malay revolt could just tilt the balance. Continue reading “The Peninsula dominoes”

Has the MACC thrown even ethics out the window?

By JD Lovrenciear
Malaysiakini
Jul 7, 2015

The Malaysiakini latest news report (Pre-polls goodies not graft, says MACC official, July 7, 2015) on how the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) interprets corruption probably best sums up why this nation is all tangled up in a web of political turmoil laced with allegations of billions of ringgit gone missing. And in all likelihood then we may never get out of this sinking hole of corrupt practices.

According to the deputy chief in charge of prevention at MACC, pre-election promises and handouts by the government is not to be regarded as bribery.

For Mustafar Ali of MACC, a case of graft applies only when gratification is ‘given for the purpose of inducing the recipient to do something, or refrain from doing something’.

In other words, when the government gives out goodies in kind or cash close to or during election campaigns there is no inducement whatsoever. It is charity? It is some kind of goody-boy Santa at work? It is a reward to the citizens for being poor and deprived these past five years since the last voting exercise? Continue reading “Has the MACC thrown even ethics out the window?”

MACC should do soul-searching why its credibility on war against corruption in high political places is zero and explain why it has failed to land a single shark in the past six years

The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) should come out of its cushy air-conditioned offices and go to the ground and do a soul-searching why its credibility on the war against corruption in high political places is zero, whether the RM42 billion 1MDB scandal, the MARA property corruption scandal blowing up in Melbourne or the recent Wall Street Journal expose that 1MDB funds were used to bankroll Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s campaign in the 13th general elections.

It is a reflection of the MACC’s utter lack of credibility and impotence as far as fighting corruption in high political places is concerned that 10 days after the Wall Street Journal report (June 19) on electoral abuses and corruption in the 13th General Elections, several NGOs, led by Coalition for Free and Fair Elections (Bersih 2.0), Centre to Combat Corruption and Cronyism (C4) and Transparency International Malaysia (TI-M) had to gather at the MACC to demand action by the anti-corruption agency yesterday.

What have the MACC officials been doing in the past 10 days over the WSJ report?

Just twiddling thumbs?

Have MACC officers called in the officers and personnel from 1MDB, Genting Plantations and Yayasan Rakyat 1Malaysia (YRIM) in the past 10 days to begin investigations arising from the Wall Street Journal report?

Has the MACC opened a file to investigate whether Najib as Prime Minister had misused his position and channel funds from 1MDB to bankroll his 13GE campaign?

Or has absolutely nothing been done on the Wall Street Journal report in the past 10 days? Continue reading “MACC should do soul-searching why its credibility on war against corruption in high political places is zero and explain why it has failed to land a single shark in the past six years”

Which is in worse shape: BN or opposition?

– Koon Yew Yin
The Malaysian Insider
26 June 2015

Although it is a long way to the next general election, the current developments we are seeing will, in my opinion, be decisive in shaping the outcome and winner of the next elections. Firstly, we have seen a lot of adverse publicity given the break up of opposition pact, Pakatan Rakyat.

Pro-Barisan Nasional (BN) observers and also some disillusioned opposition supporters are claiming this is dealing a death blow to the opposition’s election hopes. But is this so? I beg to differ from them.

What is happening to the Pakatan is actually a blessing in disguise for them. In fact, it is a big blessing. This is because if we look at the political configuration closely, it is not that the opposition coalition is breaking up. It is the hard line faction of Pas that is splitting from the rest of the Pakatan. This faction wants to chart a future for the country based on Islamic law and a more rigid Islamic state. But can they succeed?

Well, despite the conservative candidates sweeping all the leadership positions in the recent Pas elections, deep down I am sure that they realise that they represent only a minority of the Malay Muslim population. My reading is that the majority of Muslims do not want a more fundamentalist Islamic society. They may have concerns about some aspects of modern life and western values. But even the less educated among them know what has been happening in fundamentalist Islamic nations. Continue reading “Which is in worse shape: BN or opposition?”

Whether the 11th Sarawak state general election will be the third time Sarawakians spearhead Malaysian political changes as happened in the 2006 and 2011 state polls?

Whether the 11th Sarawak state general election will be the third time Sarawakians spearhead Malaysian political changes as happened in the 2006 and 2011 state polls?

The question I want to pose tonight is whether the 11th Sarawak state general election, whether held this year or next, will be the third time Sarawakians spearhead political changes in Malaysia.

In the ninth Sarawak state general election in 2006, DAP made history in Sarawak winning from one to six state assembly seats, spearheading the “308 political tsunami” of the 2008 Malaysian general election where the Umno/BN coalition was ousted from power as the government in five States and lost for the first time its two-thirds parliamentary majority.

The 2011 Sarawak State General Election made further history when Pakatan Rakyat won 15 State Assembly seats, with DAP winning 12 and PKR three. The major electoral shifts in the 2011 Sarawak state general election spearheaded the “Ubah” political awakening in the 13th Federal general elections, where Datuk Seri Najib Razak became the first minority Prime Minister in the nation’s history and still without two-thirds parliamentary majority – as UMNO/BN won 48% of electoral support although he won the majority of the 222 parliamentary seats because undemocratic constituency redelineations.

What is in store for the 11th Sarawak state general election which must be held by next August? Continue reading “Whether the 11th Sarawak state general election will be the third time Sarawakians spearhead Malaysian political changes as happened in the 2006 and 2011 state polls?”

Hopes for achievement of PR Common Policy Objectives without PR in 14GE is not impossible as UMNO/BN in self-confessed terminal stages from being in “wad biasa”, “wad kecemasan”, “ICU’ and “tanah kubur”

Today is special for two reasons.

Firstly, it is Duanwu Festival, which the Chinese celebrate with zongzi or dumpling. It commemorates the death of the poet and minister Qu Yuan 2,355 years ago in ancient state of Chu during the Warring States period of the Zhou Dynasty, for his sacrifices in his principled stand against corruption and abuses of power.

Malaysia is today mired in the biggest financial scandal in the nation’s history, the RM42 billion 1MDB scandal, with new exposes almost everyday highlighting the lack of good governance, accountability and transparency in an administration which had at first boasted about National Transformation Programme and commitment to combat corruption and abuses of power in high political places.

The latest chapter in the 1MDB scandal is the Wall Street Journal expose yesterday alleging that the 1MDB funds running into billions of ringgit were used to bank-roll Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib’s 13th General Election campaign.

Najib’s extraordinary and ominous silence, coupled with the failure by the Prime Minister either to announce his readiness to appear before the Public Accounts Committee to undergo full investigation on the Wall Street Journal allegations or institution of legal suit against Wall Street Journal for defamation signify that Najib does not lead a Nothing2Hide administration as he seems to have a lot of things to hide.

If Qu Yuan had been alive today, he would be in the forefront against such government abuses regardless of the cost to his life and future. Continue reading “Hopes for achievement of PR Common Policy Objectives without PR in 14GE is not impossible as UMNO/BN in self-confessed terminal stages from being in “wad biasa”, “wad kecemasan”, “ICU’ and “tanah kubur””