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Is your pocket 41 percent deeper?

Aidila Razak
Malaysiakini
Mar 23, 2013

COMMENT

Whether 41 percent or 49 percent, the numbers in the Economic Transformation Programme 2012 annual report is essentially trying to tell us this – Malaysia will reach high income status by 2020.

That gives the impression that the average Malaysian will be bringing home about RM48,000 (or US$15,000) a year by that time.

But will they? Does the average Malaysian feel 41 percent – or even the more modest 24 percent in ringgit terms – richer today compared to 2009? Are their pockets deeper?

The simple answer is no.

So is the government lying to us? Not exactly. Continue reading “Is your pocket 41 percent deeper?”

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20-Day Countdown to 13GE – Lies, Damn Lies and PEMANDU Statistics

Oh! What a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!
Sir Walter Scott, Marmion, Canto vi. Stanza 17.
Scottish author & novelist (1771 – 1832)

Datuk Seri Idris Jala, CEO of PEMANDU has issued a statement stating that growth of Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in US dollars from 2009 to 2012 has been revised down to 41 percent from 49 percent.

He is reported to have said that the revision arose following the adoption of a new accounting method, rather than a deliberate attempt to fudge numbers.

He pointed out that the change in figures was due to the adoption of the latest version of the United Nations System of National Accounting (SNA 2008) in 2012 which had pushed the GNI per capita up for 2009 from US$6700 to US$7059.

He offered other weak and lame reasons defending the method and the numbers put out by PEMANDU.

Little of what he said cuts much ice. The change in numbers makes little difference. The attribution to an adoption of a new method or international standard has little to do with the nature of the numbers.

He has been caught in a gross deception by applying the concept of GNI to project growth in per capita incomes of individuals. GNI is defined by the UN Statistical Division as: Continue reading “20-Day Countdown to 13GE – Lies, Damn Lies and PEMANDU Statistics”

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The myth of the rich and poor

by Anas Alam Faizli
The Malaysian Insider
MARCH 20, 2013

MARCH 20 ― “They are simply lazy”

“His father is a Tan Sri”

“He knows someone from the inside”

“I made it purely out of effort; I worked hard to get where I am today”

These are some typical expressions that are sure to be heard in coffee chats, every time the topic of rich and poor is brought up. People have grown easily accustomed to brushing off the topic of inequality as welfarist or socialist.

This happens even amongst supposedly “middle class” Malaysians, not realising that they are in actuality, most likely top income earners and wealth owners. Households earning RM10,000 a month and above already qualify as top 4 per cent Malaysians!

In fact, while partisan voices continue their discourse in the racial imbalance tone, Malaysia has silently migrated into new battles, concerning intra-racial, income, and class-based imbalances.

It is often argued that the poor and the low income earners are plain lazy and do not work hard; that one earns what one deserves. This is not true. Many are simply unlucky, to be born to parents who lack education or skills to escape from the clutches of poverty.

Some were born with disabilities and diseases, while some others live in flood-prone or hazardous places. On the other hand, we have sub-quality undeserving businessmen linked to political patrons, estate and fortune inheritors, and individuals plainly lucky to be placed in lucrative industries with high economic rent. Accusations like laziness then become hardly the issue. The rich can be lazy too! Continue reading “The myth of the rich and poor”

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26-Day Countdown to 13GE – Federal Government Deficits and Debts

Unlike many developing countries, Malaysia had until the last 15 years, avoided deficit funding and the accumulation of high levels of external and internal debt that culminated in debt crises of the type that afflicted Argentina, Mexico and many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Federal Government followed prudent policies and followed fiscal policies that were viewed favorably. Both Foreign Direct Investment flows and the domestic private sector contributed to growth.

Thus, through the early 1970s and the decade of the 1980s small deficits were recorded, indeed in the early 1990s small surpluses were recorded. The size of the public debt was largely stable and did not exceed RM 100 billion.

However, the 1997 East Asia crisis, triggered by contagion effects of the crisis in Thailand, led to a radical change in fiscal policy. The Federal Government embarked on a pump priming effort to revive the economy.

Many large scale projects were mounted; many heavily indebted crony corporations were bailed out. The public sector surplus of RM 6.6 billion recorded in 1997 evaporated and became a deficit of RM 5 billion in 1998.

Since 1998, despite the recovery, the Barisan Nasional (BN) Government has continued to run deficits ever increasing deficits which peaked under the Prime Ministership of Datuk Seri Najib to RM 47 billion. Continue reading “26-Day Countdown to 13GE – Federal Government Deficits and Debts”

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‘Najib’s economic figures are fictional’

By Ong Kian Ming | 4:56PM Mar 14, 2013
Malaysiakini

COMMENT Yesterday, March 13, 2013, national news agency Bernama quoted Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak as saying:

“We have been able to buck the external global economic trend. In the last quarter, we achieved 6.4 percent growth, which indicates the resilience of the national economy.

“When we talk about benefits to the people from 2009 to 2011, our gross national income (GNI) per capita has grown from US$6,670 to US$9,970, roughly about 49 percent. There is no country in the world that has achieved this kind of result.”

Najib said this in the ‘Conversation with the PM’ programme aired by Media Prima group’s TV3 on Tuesday night (March 12).

Where did our prime minister-cum-finance minister get these figures from? I suspect that it’s from none other than Idris Jala (left), the chief executive officer of the Performance Management and Delivery Unit (Pemandu), which comes under the PM’s Department.
Continue reading “‘Najib’s economic figures are fictional’”

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27-Day Countdown to 13GE – IMF Report Card warns of an austerity scenario for Malaysian economy not too dissimilar to that of several EuroZone countries

The nation is just weeks away from choosing a Government to steer the ship of state.

The upcoming General Election will be momentous and will demand a choice between Barisan Nasional, a coalition that has ruled the nation for almost five and a half decades, and Pakatan Rakyat, an alternate group that offers change and a new direction.

Meaningful choices should ideally be based on full information about the current state of affairs and the alternative visions offered by the two coalitions.
The information on the state of the economy is less than transparent and that which is available is skewed in favour of the incumbent regime. The opposing coalition lacks full access to information.

Under these circumstances, it is necessary to look to alternative independent sources to arrive at objective assessments.

Such an objective and comprehensive assessment is indeed available. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted its Annual Article IV Consultations in Nov –Dec 2012. A report based on the consultations was considered by the IMF’s Board of Executive Directors in late February 2013. The Fund has released the report and posted it on its website. Continue reading “27-Day Countdown to 13GE – IMF Report Card warns of an austerity scenario for Malaysian economy not too dissimilar to that of several EuroZone countries”

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28-Day Countdown to 13GE – Najib’s “Alice-in-Wonderland Statistics in his Transformational Malaysian Economy”

I have received an email from a retired international banker from the Malaysian Diaspora, who describes himself as a “Fact-Finder” monitoring the Malaysian economy, sharing his outrage on what he described as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s “Alice-in-Wonderland Statistics in his Transformational Malaysian Economics” in his hour-long television interview on Tuesday.

I find this email so interesting, perceptive and pertinent that I am reproducing it in full, viz:

” Misuse of Data

The Prime Minister cut a rather sorry figure in his appearance on TV3’s programme entitled ‘Conversation with the PM’ aired on March 12th.

His remarks were a disappointment as he indulged in delivering clichés and ‘feel good’ statements concerning the state of the economy. He missed an opportunity to present a clear a vision of what he stands for. Continue reading “28-Day Countdown to 13GE – Najib’s “Alice-in-Wonderland Statistics in his Transformational Malaysian Economy””

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Mahathir kata bankrap, Musa kata tidak

— Aspan Alias
The Malaysian Insider
March 14, 2013

14 MAC — Kenyataan Musa Hitam semalam memberikan pencerahan yang sangat baik untuk politik rakyat dan negara. Beliau tidak bersetuju apa yang didakyahkan oleh pimpinan Umno khususnya Dr Mahathir Mohamad yang negara akan bankrap jika Pakatan Rakyat memerintah selepas pilihanraya yang akan datang ini.

Musa berkata Pakatan Rakyat akan bekerja keras untuk memastikan yang negara akan terus mencapai kemajuan dan tidak akan melalaikan tanggungjawab yang buat pertama kali diberikan oleh rakyat terhadap pihak pembangkang.

Musa juga tidak bersetuju dengan politik rasis yang menebal sekarang dan pihak yang memainkan sentimen perkauman itu merupakan permainan poltik bankrap yang sudah tidak relevan lagi buat masa dan zaman ini. Kenyataan Musa ini tentunya bertentangan dengan pandangan Dr Mahathir, seorang pemimpin yang boleh berjalan di atas air itu.

Dr Mahathir yang akhir-akhir ini seperti orang yang dalam ketakutan yang amat sangat itu telah membuat kenyataan-kenyataan yang menghangatkan dengan bermatlamat untuk membina dan meningkatkan sentimen perkauman di negara ini.

Beliau (Mahathir) telah meminta Felda untuk memainkan filem Tanda Putera bagi menaikkan perasaan kebencian orang Melayu terhadap kaum Cina dan ianya tentulah untuk menghalang DAP yang menjadi sasaran cemuhan Mahathir akhir-akhir ini.

Seperti yang saya sebutkan selalu Umno hanya akan kekal berkuasa jika ada perbalahan dan perpecahan. Umno tidak kekal jika rakyat dan negara dalam keadaan aman dan damai. Maka itulah sebabnya Umno sentiasa berusaha untuk meningkatkan perasaan benci-membenci di antara kaum agar parti itu terus menjadi parti pemerintah yang berkemampuan untuk melakukan rasuah secara sistematik. Continue reading “Mahathir kata bankrap, Musa kata tidak”

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It’s not the economy, stupid

by ONG KIAN MING
MARCH 13, 2013
KiniBiz

A foreign fund manager asked me this question last month – “What exactly are Malaysians unhappy with?” After all, the country grew by 5.6% in 2012 compared to a lethargic 1.2% for Singapore for the same year. Investment, measured by gross fixed capital formation grew by an astounding 25% in 2012 compared to a lacklustre 10.2% in 2011.

As a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP – sum of goods and services produced in a year), investment was approximately 26% in 2012 compared to only 18% in 2009. Foreign direct investment in 2012 reached RM34.8 billion, a significant improvement on the abysmal RM5.0 billion in 2009.

The government seems to have a clear plan of action in putting the country back on track via the Economic and Government Transformation Plans (ETP and GTP). The shopping malls and hotels are bustling in Kuala Lumpur. New buildings and hotels are sprouting up all around the Klang Valley area.

The LRT and MRT projects will address the congestion problems in the Greater KL area and increase property values and development opportunities around their vicinity. Malaysia also had the 2nd and 3rd largest public listing in the world after Facebook via Felda Global Ventures Holding (FGVH) and IHH Healthcare.

Things seem to be looking pretty good for the country. But why is there still talk of the Barisan Nasional losing power in the upcoming general election? Continue reading “It’s not the economy, stupid”

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29-Day Countdown to 13GE – Najib doth claim too much, that Malaysia is world’s fastest country in GNI per capita growth which is as believable as his boast to make Malaysia “world’s best democracy”

I do not envy in Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s shoes at present as he must continue to put up an external front of supreme confidence that he will not be the last Umno/Barisan Nasional Prime Minister and would even survive a coup d’etat in Umno ala-Abdullah Badawi after the 13GE while internally he must be quaking with gnawing doubts whether he could survive the final countdown for the “life-and-death” test for his political life.

As a result, he doth protest and claim too much.

Yesterday, the TV3 programme “Conversation with the PM” provided another example that the sixth Prime Minister of Malaysia “doth claim too much” when he said:

“And when you talk in terms of benefit for the people, within three years, from 2009 to the end of 2011, our GNI (gross national income) per capita, it grew from US$6,670 to US$9,970. That’s roughly a 49 per cent (increase). There is no country in the world that has achieved that kind of result”.

Najib’s claim to be the fastest country in the world for GNI per capita growth in the three years from 2009 to 2011 is as believable as his other claim to transform Malaysia to be the world’s best democracy, when he could not even stand up to national and international scrutiny for the conduct of a free, fair and clean general elections despite his recent signature of the Transparency International-Malaysia’s Election Integrity Pledge. Instead, Najib is branded internationally as a “false democrat”.

Najib made two false claims in one short assertion last night – for Malaysia’s per capita GNI did not increase by 49 per cent in the three years from 2009 to 2011, and Malaysia is definitely not the world’s fastest country in per capita GNI growth in those three years.

The World Bank website shows the true numbers for Malaysia’s GNI per capita for the relevant period, viz: Continue reading “29-Day Countdown to 13GE – Najib doth claim too much, that Malaysia is world’s fastest country in GNI per capita growth which is as believable as his boast to make Malaysia “world’s best democracy””

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Don’t fear the consequences of change

Anwar Ibrahim
Malaysiakini
Mar 12, 2013

COMMENT

The present Umno-BN government of Najib Abdul Razak is living on borrowed time. It doesn’t want to admit it but its legitimacy is now totally in question because constitutionally, its full term has expired.

The people’s patience is tested to the limit here by the audacity of a government that goes on ruling without a mandate.

A number of bogus analysts and self-appointed doomsday prophets, especially those driven by very personal agendas, have warned that Malaysia will descend into political and economic chaos in the event of a Pakatan Rakyat victory.

On the other hand, the more genuine and independent observers have expressed greater optimism. For instance, the original ‘Dr Doom’, Prof Roubini, says that our economy will stay robust even with a change in government.

We know that a mandate for change is not limited to the political sphere though it is true that without that mandate, economic management itself will be off to a false start.

When Indonesia made that break from military autocracy to constitutional democracy, much of the focus of the free world was on how its economy would weather the transition.

And in their case, transition would stretch for years and indeed the fruits of that initial process of political upheaval are for all to see.

In the case of the Arab Spring, the major worry remains the lack of clearly defined policies that would set the road map to economic recovery and growth.

They are still finding their way and it won’t be an easy way but that is no excuse for rejecting freedom and democracy.

Certainly, political stability is a key factor, and I might just emphasise the most crucial factor in setting the direction and objectives of economic management. Continue reading “Don’t fear the consequences of change”

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The best way to produce competitive Bumiputera contractors

by Koon Yew Yin

I recently published an article with the title, “Room for Competitive Bumiputera Companies – A Wasteful National Mission”. My intention was to support Petronas Chairman Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas who is under fire from the Malay Economic Action Council (MTEM) for allegedly marginalizing Bumiputera companies and favouring more competitive foreign companies.

In fact MTEM has conveniently forgotten that in 2010 and 2011 alone, Petronas awarded a huge sum of about Rm 74 billion worth of contracts to Bumiputera controlled companies. Apparently this is not enough for MTEM which has called for Tan Sri Shamsul and the board members of Petronas to resign. MTEM expects to get most of the contracts irrespective of whether they are competent to undertake the contracts.

This politicking against Petronas – a national company with all Malaysians as stakeholders – is certainly not good for our economy. I wish to emphasize that Petronas is not a Malay company and Malay cronies of UMNO should not expect hand outs and contracts as if we are still living in the NEP era.

It is time that all Malay business enterprises and individuals grow up and realize they have to become competitive if they wish to survive in the business world. Nowhere in the real world is there preferential treatment for Bumiputera or any other ‘putera’!

Continuously giving out contracts to Bumiputeras as MTEM is calling for – without competitive tenders – will make them more inefficient and result in poor quality work. At the end of the day, it will be all Malaysians who will have to bear the collapse of a crony-driven and Malay-oriented Petronas if it loses its standing in the global market.

Giving out contracts without a full tender process is akin to corruption. Why a closed tender or Bumiputra favouring policy has to be pursued by Petronas needs to be openly justified by MTEM rather than swept under the carpet and hidden by the veil of threats.

The best way to produce efficient and competitive Bumiputera contractors Continue reading “The best way to produce competitive Bumiputera contractors”

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Hopes for Malaysia to be a high-income economy are not bright because Najib’s NEM does not dump the NEP policy

by Dr. Chen Man Hin
DAP life advisor
2nd March 2013

Look at the FDIs inflow to Malaysia compared to other Asean countries for 2012.

According to UNCTAD Malaysia FDI for first half of 2012 was US4 billion, and for the full year would be around US 8 billion.

Whereas it was Singapore US 27.4 billion, Indonesia 8.2 billion, Thailand 5.6 billion.

World bank figures for PER CAPITA INCOME for 2011 are:

Malaysia US$ 9500 ( US$ 7440 in 2008)

Singapore 46241

Thailand 4972

HONG KONG 36012

South Korea 22424

But Malaysia’s PCI of US9500 is far way from the required high income level of US$ 16,000 Continue reading “Hopes for Malaysia to be a high-income economy are not bright because Najib’s NEM does not dump the NEP policy”

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Malaysia will survive GE13, says ‘Dr Doom’

By ZURAIRI AR | MARCH 01, 2013
The Malaysian Insider

KUALA LUMPUR, March 1 — The Malaysian economy will weather the next general election and stay robust even with a change in government, renowned world economist Nouriel Roubini said today.

Roubini, also known in the media as “Dr Doom” for his consistently pessimistic economic outlook, gave his prediction today amid previous warnings by names such as veteran statesman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and former top cop Tan Sri Musa Hassan that Malaysia will descend into political and economic chaos should Pakatan Rakyat (PR) wins the next polls.

“I would say whatever the result is going to be, this country has shown institutional and political stability,” Roubini said here in his keynote address at the Datum Economic Forum 2013.

“Investors recognised that, and therefore as long as there is a democratic process, as long as there’ll be policy clarity after those elections, it’s certainly going to be positive.”

Roubini admitted that the electoral process itself will introduce elements of uncertainty for investors, but refused to comment on the election date that has yet to be announced.
Continue reading “Malaysia will survive GE13, says ‘Dr Doom’”

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Malaysian government’s debt to approach RM1 trillion by 2020

by Pak Sako | Monday, 25 February 2013 14:53
CPI

CPI Introduction

This is the second part of a three-part CPI series on Malaysian debt. The first part, entitled, ‘Investigate Malaysia’s debts now’ , surveyed the overall debt situation.

This part examines the trend in government debt. The upcoming part will concern Malaysia’s total debt.

Statistics reveal that in the last 15 years, the Malaysian government’s debt increased at an unprecedented rate.

The graph below shows the statistics for the government’s combined domestic and foreign debts from 1991 till the present. Forecasts are provided up to the year 2017.


Continue reading “Malaysian government’s debt to approach RM1 trillion by 2020”

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Pengiraan Detik 47 Hari ke PRU13 – Suruhanjaya Siasatan Diraja menyiasat kerugian RM100 bilion daripada skandal kewangan sepanjang 22 tahun Mahathir menjadi Perdana Menteri

Semalam, portal berita perniagaan yang baru berusia tiga hari KiniBiz melaporkan “Syed Mokhtar eyes Malaysia Airlines” oleh Jose Barrock, laporan bahawa Syed Mokhtar Albukhary mencadangkan kerajaan persekutuan mengambil alih cabang pelaburan negara, 69.3 peratus kepentingan ekuiti Khazanah Nasional Berhad di dalam Malaysia Airlines yang termasuk sebahagian daripada subsidi minyak jangka panjang oleh kerajaan untuk 60 tahun.

Rakyat Malaysia menanti pendedahan sepenuhnya perkembangan terbaru ini dalam kerumitan hubungan korporat-kerajaan, dengan “sumber yang dekat dengan Syed Mokhtar” menafikan terdapat cadangan untuk mengambil alih MAS dengan “dua sumber berlainan” mengesahkan bahawa urusan sedemikian sedang difikirkan.

Bagaimanapun laporan ini telah mengkedepankan isu utama dalam Pilihan Raya Umum yang bakal menjelang tentang kebimbangan orang ramai terhadap tadbir urus yang baik di Malaysia sama ada melibatkan skandal kewangan lama yang muncul dari penswastaan secara menyeluruh dan khususnya tentang penerbangan milik negara yang bermasalah; empayar perniagaan Syed Mokhtar dan hutang mega beliau mewujudkan kebimbangan sama ada ianya akan diselamatkan (bail out) kerajaan menggunakan duit penbayar cukai dan sejarah korupsi, kronisme dan penyalahgunaan kuasa di dalam senarai panjang Umnoputra yang diselamatkan dengan tanggungan rakyat sejak berdekad lalu.

Pilihan Raya Umum ke-13 merupakan waktu paling sesuai untuk meninjau kembali isu-isu yang membimbangkan orang ramai tentang akauntabiliti, ketelusan dan tadbir urus baik.
Continue reading “Pengiraan Detik 47 Hari ke PRU13 – Suruhanjaya Siasatan Diraja menyiasat kerugian RM100 bilion daripada skandal kewangan sepanjang 22 tahun Mahathir menjadi Perdana Menteri”

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Najib practices a two faced NEP cum NEM economic policy

By Dr Chen Man Hin, DAP Life advisor
23 Feb 2013

Events have shown that the NEP is still enforced in the economic development of the economy – two faced NEP and NEM economic policy.

Soon after being Prime Minister, Najib launched his New Economic Model to stimulate development with the aim of achieving a high economy like that of the Asian Tigers of Singapore, S Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan

To do this he had to get rid of the economic handicaps wrought by the New Economic Policy. It is on record that Najib announced on May 2nd 2009 that he would replace NEP with his New Economic Model (NEM).

It is now 2013, and the signs of a high economy are not encouraging. For Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) of 2012 Malaysia scored 9 billion US dollars compared to Indonesia’s US$19 billion and Singapore US$130 billion. (World Bank figures)

Per capita income for Malaysia in 2012 was US$9500 million, compared to Hong Kong US$30 million, Singapore US$50 million and South Korea US$25 million. Can Malaysia reach a high income status of US$20million by 2020.
Continue reading “Najib practices a two faced NEP cum NEM economic policy”

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47-Day Countdown to 13GE – Royal Commission of Inquiry into the RM100 billion losses from financial scandals in the 22-year Mahathir premiership

Yesterday, the three-day-old business news portal KiniBiz carried the report “Syed Mokhtar eyes Malaysia Airlines” by Jose Barrock, reporting that Syed Mokhtar Albukhary is proposing to the federal government to take over national investment arm, Khazanah Nasional Berhad’s 69.3 per cent equity interest in Malaysia Airlines which includes as part of the deal a long-term fuel subsidy by the government for as many as 60 years.

Malaysians await the full disclosure of this latest development in the byzantine government-corporate nexus, with a “source close to Syed Mokhtar” denying that there is such a proposal to take over MAS with “two separate sources” confirming that such a deal is being contemplated.

This report has, however, brought to the fore as priority issues in the impending 13th General Elections public concerns about good governance in Malaysia whether about past financial scandals arising from privatisation as a whole and specifically about the ailing national airline; Syed Mokhtar’s far-flung business empire and his mega-debts creating genuine fears whether they will require a massive bailout using taxpayers’ money and the history of corruption, cronyism and abuses of power in the long list of bailouts of Umnoputras at the public expense in the past few decades.

The 13th General Elections is the most appropriate time to revisit these issues of public concern about accountability, transparency and good governance.
Continue reading “47-Day Countdown to 13GE – Royal Commission of Inquiry into the RM100 billion losses from financial scandals in the 22-year Mahathir premiership”