Ong Kian Ming | Jan 29, 11
Malaysiankini
PREDICTION
Tomorrow, Jan 30, and just four days before Chinese New Year, voters in Tenang will decide on the 14th by-election since the 2008 general election.
The outcome is not in doubt. BN will win this seat. Even the opposition has conceded as much. The only question that remains is BN’s winning majority and why the margin may (or may not) be important in the larger electoral picture.
Like most analysts and observers, I anticipate a higher vote margin for the BN than in 2008 as a reflection of the larger national trend of voters moving back to the BN in 2010, especially the Malay and Indian voters.
But the winning majority will fall far short of the 5,000-vote majority Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has been predicting. Instead, I anticipate a majority of roughly 3,200 votes, or a 700-vote increase from 2008.
The increase in the BN majority will be from a five percent increase in the Malay vote, from 80 percent to 85 percent, and in the Indian vote from approximately 70 percent to 80 percent.
I expect the Chinese vote for the BN to remain at approximately 35 percent. I base these calculations on a 71 percent turnout rate, two percent less than the 2008 general election because of the proximity to Chinese New Year, and turnout rates of 77 percent, 71 percent and 58 percent among the Malay, Chinese and Indian voters. Continue reading “BN to win with 700-vote boost in majority”