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United Kingdom Election – five days to go

Adrian Beaumont
The Conversation
2 May 2015

The United Kingdom election will be held in five days on Thursday. The current UK Polling Report (UKPR) poll average has the Tories on 34%, Labour on 33%, the Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) on 9%, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) on 14% and the Greens on 5%; this represents a 1% gain for the Tories since last week.

Based on uniform swings in England and Wales, and a separate uniform swing for Scotland, UKPR has Labour winning 290 of 650 seats, to 263 for the Tories, 19 for the Lib Dems, 60 for the Scottish National Party (SNP) and a few Others, and 18 for Northern Ireland parties. My adjustment to this is to take 20 seats off Labour and give them to the Tories owing to sophomore surges; this method gives the Tories 283 seats to Labour’s 270. If this is the result, the Tories would be the largest party by 13 seats, but Labour would form some sort of government with SNP support.

There are some signs that Labour has regained ground in the last few days. Four of the last five polls have given Labour a 1-2 point lead, and the fifth was tied. As a result, the May 2015 poll average now has a dead heat between the major parties, after showing a slender Tory lead. A caveat is that the most recent polls are Internet based panel polls, and phone polls have been better for the Tories.

The last three Scottish polls all give the SNP over 50% of the Scotland vote, with Labour in the low to mid 20’s. As a result, there has been some speculation that the SNP could win all 59 of Scotland’s seats. The latest forecasts have the SNP winning between 49 and 56 seats. Continue reading “United Kingdom Election – five days to go”

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Baghdadi may be gone, but his empire will live on

By David Blair
Chief Foreign Correspondent
Telegraph
02 May 2015

The Isil leader may have been wounded in an air strike, but the terrorist movement no longer depends on him

After leading a desert blitzkrieg across Syria and Iraq, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi stood before thousands of followers and proclaimed himself “Caliph” of a new “Islamic State”.

Yet the bloodsoaked reign of a terrorist who achieved global prominence by conquering swathes of the Middle East now appears to have been cut short by one American air strike.

Iraq’s government and other sources are convinced that far from leading his men in battle, Baghdadi now lies critically wounded and receiving constant care. A US air raid near the town of Al-Baaj, 90 miles west of the Iraqi city of Mosul, appears to have injured Baghdadi and killed three of his companions on March 18.

The self-styled “Caliph” is understood have suffered spinal damage for which he requires continuous treatment. As a result, Baghdadi is thought to be incapacitated and no longer in command of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil).

Instead, de facto leadership of the movement has passed to a council of senior commanders, including Baghdadi’s supposed deputy, Abu Alaa al-Afri. Continue reading “Baghdadi may be gone, but his empire will live on”

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Two speeches by UMNO Ministers in Permatang Pauh yesterday highlighted the urgent need for UMNO to get a real education in democracy by being sent to Opposition benches with the end of its national monopoly of power since Merdeka in 1957 and Malaysia in 1963

Two speeches by UMNO Ministers in the Permatang Pauh by-election campaign yesterday highlighted the urgent need for UMNO to get a real education in democracy by being sent to Opposition benches with the end of its national monopoly of power since Merdeka in 1957 and formation of Malaysia in 1963.

The first was the haughty, arrogant and insufferable statement by the Agriculture and Agro-based Industries Minister, Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who said that applications for agricultural funds and projects in Permatang Pauh will not be approved if Pakatan Rakyat wins the by-election again.

Speaking at the Kuala Mengkuang polling district, Ismail said:

“This is an agricultural area. I will surely approve if it is Suhaimi Sabudin (BN candidate) who is making the applications.

“If it is (PKR’s president and candidate Datuk Seri Dr) Wan Azizah (Wan Ismail), she will not even get past my office lobby.

“There is no reason for me to see her. She is from the opposition.”

Ismail, of the “call to Malay consumers to boycott Chinese businesses” notoriety, who not only highlighted the ingrained racist thinking of certain UMNO Ministers but also the double standards in the “administration of justice” by the Police and the Attorney-General’s Chambers, clearly had no notion that his Ministerial responsibility is to 30 million Malaysians regardless of race, religion, territory or political affiliation; that he is not paid by UMNO funds but by public funds by all taxpayers and his duty is to be a Minister for all Malaysians, and not just to UMNO (which, eventually, ends up in only UMNO cronies)!

In a truly democratic administration, a Minister who make such petty-minded, anti-people and undemocratic sentiments would be immediately hauled up by the Prime Minister and made to retract his statement, even facing the risk of being sacked from the Cabinet, with or without such a retraction. Continue reading “Two speeches by UMNO Ministers in Permatang Pauh yesterday highlighted the urgent need for UMNO to get a real education in democracy by being sent to Opposition benches with the end of its national monopoly of power since Merdeka in 1957 and Malaysia in 1963”

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Don’t rely on our university rankings alone, QS tells Putrajaya

by Anisah Shukry
The Malaysian Insider
2 May 2015

Despite Malaysian universities’ continued strong showing in QS Quacquarelli Symonds’s world rankings, the London-based firm has cautioned Malaysia not to solely rely on its results to gauge the performance of the nation’s varsities.

While Putrajaya often cites QS’s rankings as proof Malaysian universities are world class, QS head of research Ben Sowter agreed with Times Higher Education (THE) that Malaysia must refer to multiple sources to get an accurate picture of how local varsities fare compared with the rest of the world.

“Ours is only one of range of publicly available measures. Universities and policy-makers should combine data from multiple sources to form an accurate diagnosis of their strengths and weaknesses,” Rowter told The Malaysian Insider in an email interview.

“We strongly discourage anyone from making important choices on the basis of only one input.” Continue reading “Don’t rely on our university rankings alone, QS tells Putrajaya”

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Najib should come to Permatang Pauh before polling day for a “1MDB scandal – Answer All Questions” Dialogue or he should seek a motion of confidence when Parliament re-convenes on May 18 to demonstrate he still commands support of the majority of MPs

One of the mysteries of Permatang Pauh by-election is not only the disappearance of the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, but also his posters, which like his two Prime Minister predecessors, had always pride of place in all previous Barisan Nasional by-election campaigns – and invariably given greater prominence than the contesting Barisan Nasional by-election candidate.

But this is not the case in Permatang Pauh. Has the Barisan Nasional leaders come to a stage where they are embarrassed about the presence of the Prime Minister, even his posters?

Is the disappearance of the Prime Minister and his posters in the Permatang Pauh by-election an eloquent testimony that Najib had got very serious things to hide from the voters of Permatang Pauh?

The voters of Permatang Pauh have a right to chant: Where is the Prime Minister? In particular with regard to his accountability and answers to the endless questions which are being asked by Pakatan Rakyat leaders and recently, former Prime Minister, Tun Mahathir about the “mother of mother” of all financial scandals in Malaysia – the RM42 billion 1MDB scandal? Continue reading “Najib should come to Permatang Pauh before polling day for a “1MDB scandal – Answer All Questions” Dialogue or he should seek a motion of confidence when Parliament re-convenes on May 18 to demonstrate he still commands support of the majority of MPs”

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Was Mahathir a leader or a boss?

By Tajuddin Rosli
Malaysiakini
30th April 2015

I am sure most people who decide to read this article are doing so because the title of my article questions the popular belief. Some may already begin deploying their cavalry and loading their artillery even before reading past the first paragraph. I look back at Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s 22 years at the helm and wonder if he was a leader or a boss.

Management is efficiency in climbing the ladder of success; leadership determines whether the ladder is leaning against the right wall. – Stephen Covey

Dr Mahathir brought enormous success to the development of the nation. It is because of him we now have the Petronas Twin Towers. It is because of him Malaysia is on the Formula 1 circuit map. It is because of him Malaysia experienced economic growth. He definitely broadcasted Malaysia globally in many aspects of science and technology.

Unfortunately, it is also because of him corruption has seeped deep into the genes of the nation. It is because of him cronyism has become a well-known word in Malaysian politics. It is because of him racism went on a malignant spurt. He was for sure a success but the success he brought jeopardised the nation such that its effect is still being felt today. Continue reading “Was Mahathir a leader or a boss?”

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What is Dr M really fighting for?

By Dennis Ignatius
Malaysiakini
Apr 30, 2015

COMMENT The redoubtable Dr Mahathir Mohamad is once again on the warpath.

In recent months, he has fired salvo after salvo of withering criticism against Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak accusing Najib of a whole array of sins – mismanaging the economy, squandering billions, living lavishly, mishandling the Altantuya Shaariibuu murder investigation, not being a strong leader, burdening the people with Goods and Services Tax, kowtowing to the United States on the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement etc.

He has even levelled against Najib what is perhaps the ultimate insult in his lexicon – being worse than former prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi!

His attacks on Najib have, of course, thrilled the hearts of the legions of Malaysians who are fed up with Najib’s leadership.

Indeed, many now look to Dr Mahathir as the would-be saviour of the nation. Even the equally redoubtable Lim Kit Siang has offered to work with him to save the nation.

If anybody can succeed against Najib, it is, of course, Dr Mahathir. He alone has the stature, the authority, the political smarts and, of course, the impunity, to go head to head with the PM.

There is none more implacable, more skilful, more determined than he. He also has the experience, having brought down a sitting PM before. When the doctor gets his political scalpel out, somebody is most likely to get scalped. Continue reading “What is Dr M really fighting for?”

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10 things 1MDB should disclose

By P Gunasegaram
Malaysiakini
Apr 29, 2015

QUESTION TIME Perhaps, just perhaps, 1Malaysia Development Bhd or 1MDB does not understand what it needs to do to convince the public all is well with it. To help it along, here are 10 things that we feel our national self-styled strategic development company can do to soothe frazzled nerves and convince us Malaysians our money is safe.

CIMB Group chairperson and the prime minister’s brother Nazir Razak is not the only one who has been urging 1MDB towards greater disclosure, but he does make some pertinent points.

“I have no solution to it (IMDB) but I think we probably should know – disclose what needs to be disclosed in order for people to have a full picture and allay their worst fears.

“I just said it’s something that’s there, everyone is concerned about it, so you need to allay concerns. Put concerns to rest, that is all,” he told a press conference recently. Continue reading “10 things 1MDB should disclose”

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The focus of 14GE will be on eight states, led by Johor, as to whether state power and government could change hands

The focus of the 14GE will not only be on Putrajaya, as to whether Federal power could change hands, but also on eight states led by Johor, as to whether state power and government could change hands.

These are Johor, Kelantan, Pahang, Melaka, Negri Sembilan, Terengganu, Kedah, and Perak.

The UMNO/Barisan Nasional Federal Government is a minority government, securing the support of only 47% of the national electorate.

Based on the 13GE results, there are eight states where the political party/coalition forming the State Government has secured 55% or less of the total state votes cast and are vulnerable to change of state government in a general election. Continue reading “The focus of 14GE will be on eight states, led by Johor, as to whether state power and government could change hands”

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“Cross” episode testimony of failure of over half-century of Malaysian nation-building

This is the sixth of my kopitiam ceramahs in five Johor State Assembly constituencies in the past three days to take the political pulse in the country by sharing with the people the latest political events in the country and to learn about their concerns about what is happening in the country.

Undoubtedly, the top issues of the day jostling for pole position include the RM42 billion 1MDB scandal; the 6% GST tax; the revolt of Dr. Mahathir calling for Najib’s resignation as PM; the two scandals in the administration of justice – the unanswered question as to who was the mastermind of the murder of Mongolian Altantuya Shaariibuu and the second jailing of Anwar Ibrahim; the Permatang Pauh by-election; the worst racial and religious polarization in the country as highlighted by the protest of a group of Malay residents at a sight of a cross in a Christian church in Taman Medan, Selangor and the future of Pakatan Rakyat.

The protest by a group of Malay residents at the sight of a cross on the ground that it was a threat to Malays and Islam is testimony of the failure of over half a century of Malaysian nation-building.

Such a reaction and protest would be quite unheard-of and even unthinkable in the first five decades of our nation-hood from Merdeka in 1957, but it seems to become quite commonplace and the norm in the country in the past five years, which is most ironical as it coincides with the period when the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak is going the world as a globe-trotting salesman of his “Global Movement of Moderates”! Continue reading ““Cross” episode testimony of failure of over half-century of Malaysian nation-building”

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How The Islamic State’s Slick Recruiting Campaign Threatens To Radicalize Americans

USA Today | By Kevin Johnson
04/27/2015

WASHINGTON — The arrests of six Minnesota men accused earlier this month of attempting to join the Islamic State group, highlights an unprecedented marketing effort being waged by the militant group in Iraq and Syria, U.S. law enforcement officials and terror analysts said.
It’s a campaign that is finding resonance from urban metros to the American heartland.

“This is not so much a recruitment effort as it is a global marketing campaign, beyond anything that al-Qaida has ever done,” said a senior law enforcement official.

The official, who is not authorized to comment publicly, said the Islamic State’s slick multimedia productions, its use of social media and personal “peer-to-peer” communication are proving to be effective parts of a sophisticated program aimed at the West.

“I don’t think there has been one case in which we haven’t found some connection to the videos or other media the group has produced,” the official said. Continue reading “How The Islamic State’s Slick Recruiting Campaign Threatens To Radicalize Americans”

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Pakatan Rakyat voters in five Johor state assembly constituencies have one common message – they would not support Pakatan Rakyat in 14GE if PAS reneges on PR Common Policy Framework and unilaterally pushes for hudud implementation

In the past three days, I visited five state assembly constituencies in Johore – Skudai, Nusajaya, Pengkalan Rinting, Johor Jaya and Stulang – and I received one common message from the voters who had voted for Pakatan Rakyat in the 13th General Elections in May 2013: that they would not support Pakatan Rakyat in the 14th General Election if PAS reneges on the PR Common Policy Framework and unilaterally pushes for hudud implementation.

One of the greatest electoral breakthroughs in the 13th General Election in 2013 was the end of Johor as the Barisan Nasional “fixed deposit” state, as Pakatan Rakyat won five Parliamentary and 18 State Assembly seats – which nobody, whether in BN or PR, would have expected before the May 5, 2013 general election.

In fact, Pakatan Rakyat won 45.8% of the total votes cast in Johor in the 13th General Election, an if the redelineation of the electoral constituencies had been fair and democratic, Pakatan Rakyat would have denied the Barisan Nasional two-thirds majority in the Johor State Assembly with at least 25 and not just 18 State Assembly seats. Continue reading “Pakatan Rakyat voters in five Johor state assembly constituencies have one common message – they would not support Pakatan Rakyat in 14GE if PAS reneges on PR Common Policy Framework and unilaterally pushes for hudud implementation”

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Either have snap general election or the present batch of 222 MPs should rise above race, religion and party affiliation to elect a “Save Malaysia” Prime Minister who is committed to defend constitutionalism, the rule of law and moderation

Malaysia is indeed in “No Man’s Land”, never before have the nation been so sick and wracked by so many crises, whether the RM42 billion 1MDB financial scandal; the 6% GST imposed on April 1; the worst racial and religious polarisation in the nation’s history with the unprecedented rise of extremism and intolerance as illustrated by the “cross” incident at Taman Medan in Selangor; the loss of national and international confidence in the Prime Minister; major crisis in the two major political coalitions – Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat; and above all, the future and survival of the Merdeka Constitution of 1957 and the Malaysian federation formed in 1963!

For the first time in the nation’s history, there is open speculation as to who should be the new Prime Minister of Malaysia – by-passing not only the incumbent Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak but also the incumbent Deputy Prime Minister, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin!

A former deputy prime minister said UMNO is “imploding” with internal wars tearing the party apart.

Another former UMNO Minister warned of a “Malay tsunami” in the next general election, claiming that Najib’s belief that UMNO warlords are behind him has led him to sign off on unpopular policies which could push the people to turn against him at the polls.

A former law minister has even named UMNO veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah as the best choice to replace Najib as Prime Minister, by-passing Muhyiddin as “the current number two is unlikely to reform the country and undo what Najib has done in the past few years”.

He believes that if former Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir “wants better and more accountable leaders for UMNO in the years to come, and at the same time put an end to systemic corruption and improve the quality of the public institutions”, the choice of successor must be none other than Tengku Razaleigh. Continue reading “Either have snap general election or the present batch of 222 MPs should rise above race, religion and party affiliation to elect a “Save Malaysia” Prime Minister who is committed to defend constitutionalism, the rule of law and moderation”

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Excerpt #4: The Future: From Blue Chip To Penny Stock

by Bakri Musa
Malaysia’s Wasted Decade 2004-2014. The Toxic Triad of Abdullah, Najib and UMNO Leadership.#4
April 26, 2015

Long before the twin tragedies of Malaysia Airlines (MAS) Flight MH17 (shot down in eastern Ukraine in March 2014) and MH370 (disappeared literally from thin air over the South China Sea less than four months earlier), the company’s shares were already languishing at the bottom floor of the KLSE at around 22 sen. Yes, that is sen, as in cents, or pennies. Even bottom feeders were shunning MAS shares.

To think that less than two decades earlier the Mahathir Administration paid RM8.00 for those same shares! Factoring in for inflation and devaluation, it should be about RM32.00 in today’s devalued ringgit. If you add in the expected appreciation as per the KLSE Index, the shares should be trading at around RM100 today.

From RM100 to 22 sen! Formerly blue chip MAS now a penny stock! It would be cheaper to use MAS shares to wallpaper your bathroom; they are useless for toilet paper. Continue reading “Excerpt #4: The Future: From Blue Chip To Penny Stock”

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Excerpt #3: Intra Racial (Specifically Intra-Malay) Conflict The Greater Threat

by Bakri Musa
Malaysia’s Wasted Decade 2004-2014 Excerpt #3
April 19th, 2015

In an inaugural Millennium Essay for The New Straits Times (November 1999) I wrote, “The greatest threat to Malaysia’s social stability is not inter-racial confrontation rather intra-communal, specifically among Malays.” There are three potential fault lines along which Malays could fracture: religious, cultural, and socioeconomic. Conflict on any one is unlikely to trigger a severe crisis but a confluence of any two or all three could be cataclysmic.

Interracial conflict is bad, and Malaysians already had a taste of it many times. The May 13, 1969 incident was only the most bitter. Bad as it was, the intra-ethnic or intra-racial variety would be far worse. More Arabs had been killed by their fellow Arab brethrens than by the Israelis. The carnage of the 1956 Arab-Israeli War pales in comparison to the current intra-Arab strife in Syria. Continue reading “Excerpt #3: Intra Racial (Specifically Intra-Malay) Conflict The Greater Threat”

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Excerpt #2 The Decay Long In The Making

by Bakri Musa
Malaysia’s Wasted Decade 2004-2014. The Toxic Triad of Abdullah, Najib, and UMNO Leadership. #2
April 12th, 2015

Abdullah and Najib squandered Malaysia’s precious first decade into the new millennium. It was a wasted if not lost decade. It would be academic to judge who is worse, Abdullah or Najib. When both scored “Fs”, it matters less whether one is F minus and the other simply an F.

There is little prospect for change, at least until the next election due no later than mid 2018. Even if there were to be divine intervention, Najib’s deputy, Muhyiddin, is no better. Malaysia is doomed; it cannot escape its present sorry trajectory.

If nations do not progress, then ipso facto they regress. Human progress is neither automatic nor inevitable, noted Martin Luther King. Continue reading “Excerpt #2 The Decay Long In The Making”

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Excerpt #1: Chicken Coop At Dusk

by Bakri Musa
Malaysia’s Wasted Decade 2004-2014. The Toxic Triad of Abdullah, Najib, and UMNO Leadership #1
April 5th, 2015

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad stunned his followers when he announced his resignation at his UMNO’s General Assembly in June 2002. He had been in office for over 22 years. The unexpected announcement triggered mass hysteria among his followers. Senior ministers and party leaders openly wept, and pandemonium broke out in the hall.

The scene resembled a chicken coop at dusk when the birds were settling down in their comfort zone when suddenly their head rooster flew the coop, or attempted to. The cacophony settled down and calm returned only after senior leaders cajoled Mahathir to delay his retirement until October 31st the following year, and he agreed.

That collective hysteria and mass crying were reflective of how dependent UMNO members were on Mahathir. He was their messiah, and now he was abandoning them. Continue reading “Excerpt #1: Chicken Coop At Dusk”

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Your faith may be weak, but mine isn’t

Syerleena Abdul Rashid
The Malaysian Insider
24 April 2015

I am a Muslim and a Malaysian who has no problem with other religions displaying their religious symbols. As a matter of fact, I have no problem sitting down and having a cup of coffee with my non-Muslim friends in a “kedai kopi Cina”, or having them eat in front of me during Ramadhan because my faith will not shatter into pieces, by the temptations of such petty things.

I know I am not the only one, and that there are countless other Malaysian Muslims who were repulsed by the idiocy displayed, in Taman Medan a few days ago. Malaysians aren’t stupid – even if the powers that be are adamant about keeping us dim-witted and daft.

We don’t need to be reminded of how gullible, some of our fellow Malaysians have become because of our inept system, favours the illogic and reward random acts of violence. Continue reading “Your faith may be weak, but mine isn’t”

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Islamic State takes military barracks, dam in Iraq’s Anbar: sources

Reuters
Sat Apr 25, 2015

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Islamic State militants in Iraq took partial control of a water dam and military barracks guarding it in the western Anbar province after fierce fighting through the night that continued on Saturday, security sources and witnesses said.

The Iraqi government announced a new offensive this month to recapture parts of Anbar, Iraq’s Sunni Muslim heartland, from Islamic State, in an attempt to build on an earlier victory against the group in the central city of Tikrit.

But the hardline Sunni militants struck back by attacking Ramadi, the provincial capital of Anbar, prompting thousands of families to flee. They also hit Baiji, Iraq’s largest refinery last week.

Late on Friday, the insurgents attacked the security perimeter at al-Thirthar dam with explosive-laden vehicles and then battled army forces in clashes that continued on Saturday, police and army sources told Reuters. Continue reading “Islamic State takes military barracks, dam in Iraq’s Anbar: sources”