by Lim Mun Fah
The Malaysian Insider
March 22, 2013
MARCH 22 — Many Pakatan Rakyat supporters were filled with a wild ecstatic happiness and believed that it would be a sure-win battle when Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim made the announcement that DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang will contest in Gelang Patah, Johor. Most members of public also believe that his odds of winning are extremely high.
If we analyse calmly, however, the MCA might not necessarily lose the battle. Nothing is impossible in politics. Moreover, Lim is not God, he has suffered five defeats in his political career over the past nearly half a century, including the Serdang state seat in the 1968 by-election, the Bandar Hilir state seat in 1982, the Tanjung Bungah state seat in 1995, and the Bukit Bendara parliamentary seat, as well as the Kebun Bunga state seat in 1999, plunging his political career into a trough.
There is a certain risk for Lim to contest in Gelang Patah, the MCA’s turf. If we look at the election records of Gelang Patah, the MCA’s Chang See Ten @ Teu Si won the seat with 24,219-vote majority in 1995 and 26,405-vote majority in 1999. In 2004, the MCA’s then fresh candidate Tan Ah Eng achieved a peak by winning the seat with a 31,666-vote majority, and given the anti-ruling party sentiment in 2008, Tan still won the seat with 8,851-vote majority. The record shows that Gelang Patah has been a stronghold of the MCA and it is not that easy to pull it down.
The two Gelang Patah MPs, namely Chang and Tan, have been recognised as people-serving lawmakers with a cordial image. They have gained a good reputation over the past 18 years and secured a certain number of votes for the MCA. However, it was said that Gelang Patah MCA division chairman Teoh Sew Hock would be fielded to contest this time, triggering an internal factional struggle. The DAP, which has eyeballed the seat for 20 years, sees it as an opportunity and thus, came out with such an arrangement and strategy.
Obviously, the DAP is targeting not only the Gelang Patah parliamentary seat, but to make a breakthrough in Johor with Lim’s personal charisma and popularity and to achieve the ultimate goal of seizing Putrajaya.
Lim’s risky move reminds me of two opposition leaders in a neighbouring country: Low Thia Khiang and Chiam See Tong. They used similar strategies but received different outcomes.
In the 2011 Singapore election, both Low and Chiam decided not to seek re-election in their respective Single Member Constituencies and instead contested in Group Representation Constituencies. As a result, Low successfully made a breakthrough and increased the number of parliamentary seats of the Workers’ Party from one to six, while pushing the party’s and his personal prestige to the peak.
As for Chiam, his team was defeated by the PAP’s team in Bishan-Toa Payoh Group Representation Constituency while his wife narrowly lost in Potong Pasir. The setback has basically ended Chiam’s political career.
The above examples show that even with seemingly similar strategies, there are still differences in deployment and tactic, which will lead to different outcomes. The political situation is still evolving and the BN’s strategy remains unknown. It is now a bit too early to say Lim will surely win and it will also lead to the mistake of underestimating the enemy! — mysinchew.com
Yes it will be a tough battle. For PR to take over Putrajaya it must be seen to be able to take over BN stronghold seats and this just happens to be one of them. This is seen to be going for broke and Johor being known as one of BN’s fixed deposit state its image must be shed as otherwise we will not have the opportunity.
The next time round, it will be difficult as BN will go for another of delineation and the chances for a change will disapear. UBAH. ABU.
Yes, true!
To a certain point!
This state even have a porn star as a president of the second largest component party in BN!!
Really unfathomable!!!
But then, a lot of water has already flowed under the bridge since the last GE!
Malaysians are repulsed by the blatant, brazen, in-your-face corruption, scams and scandals that have been the hallmark of UMNO/BN since they took the reigns of government since Independence.
Not only that, there is collective punishment for everybody, including UMNO/BN members in opposition areas when these areas are denied public facilities that they should be enjoying as citizens and taxpayers!!!
Malaysians have already woken up to the reality of what those in the ruling party has been delivering to the people all these decades versus what their propagandists in the MSM has been crowing about.
And people are desperate for a change in government.
For a capable, accountable and transparent government that only the PR can provide.
Having said that, the PR must also touch base on everything that needs to be done to ensure success.
Uncle LKS has morally won this seat, even before najib dare to think about election.
No sure win battle in politic, but neccessary risk to take. If PR serious about taking over putrajaya, LKS did not venture into BN FD state. Then what different PR from BN, merely blowing hot air?
LKS has little to lose, even he lost the battle. If LKS lost gelang patah, then Tsunami did not hit, bn retain their putrajaya. Pointlesd to win a battle but lost the war.
That is uncle LKS, always take nevcessary risk, however big the risk. If win, lets win the war, if lost, lets risk to lost all the battle. Only then, PR can bring real about change.
PR leader! Get into the lion dens, it is an opportunity of lifetime, lets win over putrajaya, or lost all the seats.
It is not the time for personal gain, no safe seats, it is either do or die. FORCE the voters to think and decide. It is now or never, send that message down to the voters.
One cannot expect a different result if one keeps doing the same thing. We can see PR strategic thinkers are thinking out if the box. To win the war, one must device strategies that will surround the enemy, strike where the enemy least expected, bring the battle to their turf. Yes oh yes, convince OTK to join PR. It is high noon. Bring out all the artillery. Aim at Fortress Johor. ABU ABU…
Yeah, GO 4 d HEART, GO 4 d B@LLs, make it or BUST, U only live ONCE
Did anyone said it was sure-win? I have not heard it from anyone from Pakatan side..
If Gelang Patah is situated in any other state, Lim’s win is certain. In Johore the Chinese there seems to believe that so long as they can work in Singapore, there is no need for a change of government in Malaysia, and that is how they have voted BN all the time.
To end race-based politics in Malaysia, Chinese Malaysians have no choice but to make sure that those so-called Chinese based parties in Barisan Nasional are defeated completely so that UMNO does not have the stage to perform its racist show. MCA politicians do not suffer the fate of other Chinese Malaysians after selling out their interest. They want to maintain the status quo. Some rich Chinese businessmen do not want a change until others make them give up their controlling share in their companies; by then it would be too late for the individuals who forgot that it was their votes which kept MCA people in politics.
We hope that there will be a change of tenant at PutraJaya. Chinese Malaysians should at least make sure that MCA and Gerakan candidates are completely wiped out in the coming election; that would be a consolation price if UMNO retains Putrajaya.
insyaala,boleh menang..
I no betting man but I will happily give LKS a 5000 vote handicap to start Tsunami II in
Johor.