Mohd Ariff Sabri Aziz | February 7, 2013
Free Malaysia Today
If the voting trends go along the same lines as it did in 2008, it is then the end for both Umno and MCA.
COMMENT
If only 30% of the Malay electorate in each of the parliamentary seat where MCA is the incumbent vote for PKR, then MCA is wiped out.
But Umno wants to save its Islam-bashing partner at all costs even if it means speaking like an infidel.
MCA, on its part, must do everything to keep the Chinese intact but it’s facing an uphill battle.
MCA has lost its credibility and relevance. It goes to town, saying if Pakatan Rakyat wins, then PAS will “Talibanise” everything.
It claims if Pakatan wins you can’t play mahjong, eat pork, bah kut teh, wash hair, yam seng and all that.
But we all know that MCA must say that PAS will restrict everything.
Umno and MCA are playing two sides of the same coin, but the subterfuge is not fooling everyone.
So, how do we kill off MCA for good? There is a simple formula.
If only 30% of the Malays vote for Pakatan and 80% of non-Malays vote the same way, MCA is finished. This is all we need.
MCA can lose all its 15 parliamentary seats in the next general election.
50% Malays with Pakatan
MCA has 15 parliamentary seats, most of them in Johor. Out of the seven seats in Johor, only two have Malay majority.
The fact is MCA is safe only in two parliamentary seats – Air Hitam and Alor Gajah. The rest are shaky if not gone already.
The prospects of eliminating MCA as such is good. Some 80% to 85% of non-Malays are supporting Pakatan and 50% of the Malays will vote for Pakatan.
We have many instances where voters in areas with Malay majority gave substantial support to Pakatan.
In Jerantut, Pahang, for instance, the almost 90% Malay community gave 46% support to Pakatan.
Therefore Umno can’t assume that just because an area has a majority Malay electorate, it has their big support.
In 2008, Umno candidates got only two 2 million votes from the 5.7 million Malay voters. That’s only 35% Malay support.
Let us now assume Pakatan has 30% Malay support and the backing of 80% of non-Malays. This will be enough to ensure MCA is finished. All we need to ensure is the 30:80 formula.
And if voting goes along the same line as it did in 2008, then Umno is doomed.
The writer is a former Umno state assemblyman but has now joined DAP. He is a FMT columnist.
RIP, MCA.
Yeah, RIP.
Honestly think MCA will hang themselves going down the last stretch. How hard it is to get 30% Malay support when they have been Islam bashing? Its simply insulting to PAS and Anwar if can’t nudge MCA down the rest of the grave they dug themselves
MCA – good riddance to bad rubbish.
Just as well to get rid of the MCA snake that has sold out Malaysians in this Year of the Snake.
Nob, nobody at all in helons of MCA has even a trace, no, not an iota of credibility left.
Chua Soi Lek – forget it!
Liow Tiong Lai- you must joking!
Ng Yen Yen – find me any other woman any other day!
Whats that guy’s name form PJ again? Some Deputy Minister? OK, he’s best forgotten!
Who elase – oh, forget it. Just consign them all to the rubbish heap of history.
MCA is just a flattering, fawning, feeble party of fawners, flatterers, feeble pussyfooters.
UMNO / BN is not stupid. It already has set up a buffer of ‘instant citizen and ghost voters’ who are likely to give them almost 100% support. Also the many army and Rela voters that have been conveniently placed everywhere?
So don’t be too optimistic.
Have you done your homework to find out all the padding done to date and their implications? PR can lose badly.
Becareful sabri is giving this info to put us off track..remember he was the other side Like Aziz and a few…. once they get a contract he will flip…. How to believe him….. 2 kali 5
Even in semi-urban area, I did ask an MCA branch leader if the MCA candidate were to contest the Klang MP seat; what are the chances? He shook his head, No chance! If UMNO is this desperate, then they won’t offer any Malay majority seats to MCA, as if they [UMNO] still command their votes. Basically, it is time for a Change! Otherwise, we will enter the twilight zone of NO Return for the nation!
Nah you are joking. UMNO will win and win big.
You are forgetting phantom vote (people who continue to vote from beyond the grave), instant Malaysian votes, flying votes, votes from people who did not realize that they were registered to vote and finally votes from those 21 and below.
I am sure the age group of 1-10 year old (ie those in primary school) are solidly behind UMNO and BN.
Which such solid support, only crazy people would be worried that BN would lose. Why, Malaysian might even give 120% support to BN.
Nobody could save MCA this time.
The ordinary and independent Chinese do not have any ‘obligations’ to the present govt…….they do not benefit DIRECTLY from govt. policies.
You don’t believe in the Phantom Vote? I believe in it. Masked man will descend on the polling stations come election day and stuff the ballot box with enough UMNO win to save MCA from disaster. MCA will win 150% of the chinese vote, despite DAP winning a mere 80% of the chinese vote.
Don’t worry MCA. You will have the usual complement of Senators entering, as window-dressing, by Parliament’s back door.
Many are now confirmed death sentences. Some have no ball to even tell others they are members. Different from those days where they romp around showing how great and privilege the club is. Pity those fellows. Must be doing a lot of soul searching or some already have no soul.
I am waiting to celebrate the demise of MCA.