Hard Realities of Malaysian Politics – Hadi will again by “played out” by Najib in the next Parliamentary meeting as Hadi’s private member’s bill motion on hudud will not see the light of day as Najib has already achieved his objective of breaking up Pakatan Rakyat

I am shocked by the downright dishonesty of the PAS President, Datuk Seri Hadi Awang in continuing to accuse the DAP of wanting to grab political power for the Chinese as the reason why DAP wanted to restore local government elections and the break-up of Pakatan Rakyat.

I have just seen the video of Hadi’s interview with Channel News Asia (CNA) where he accused the DAP of violating the “morals” of Pakatan Rakyat and of wanting to grab political power for the Chinese in wanting to restore local government elections.

I am both shocked and saddened that a former Pakatan Rakyat leader could be reduced to a level to  tell such a lie, which is a most immoral act for any top political leader.

When UMNO spread lies about the DAP, top UMNO leaders stay out of the picture, leaving  the dirty work to their propagandists and low-level political characters.

 But in PAS, it is the PAS President himself who is actively spreading such UMNO lies and falsehoods!

One can be charitable and excuse Hadi for suffering from short memories, as it is a blatant lie for anyone to accuse the  DAP of launching a grab for political power by the Chinese in our demand for the restoration of the third vote, allegedly at the expense of the Malays on the ground that 60 per cent of the state assembly seats in the country are already under the DAP control.

Such lies are most preposterous and nonsensical for six reasons:

(i) DAP does not control 60% of the state assembly seats, as all the three Pakatan Rakyat parties of DAP, PKR and PAS (until PR was killed at the PAS Muktamar on June 3) did not even win 50% of the total state assembly seats in the 13th General Election. The total number and percentage of state assembly seats won by the three PR parties in the 13GE are 229 seats or 45% of the total of 505 state assembly seats in the country.

(ii) The DAP had never been a party for the Chinese or any one race or religion, as right from our establishment nearly 50 years ago, DAP had been committed to the goal of being a party for Malaysians of all races and religions. In fact, DAP is the first Pan-Malaysian political party in Malaysia, with branches in all the states in the country.

(iii) Restoration of local government had been the objective of DAP ever since our formation in 1966.

(iv) It is utterly misleading and irresponsible to suggest that restoration of local council elections would benefit the Chinese at the expense of the Malays.  It ignores the local government restructuring and the process of Malay urbanization in the past five decades, resulting in Malaysia having 148 local authorities, about 90% of which have Malay majorities of over 50% of the population, while only two per cent or three of the 148 local authorities have Chinese majorities, leaving a balance of 13 with plurality of races, seven of which are Chinese-dominant and six Malay-dominant.

(v)  It is the height of irresponsibility of accuse advocates of local government elections as “chauvinist” or “communist”, as local government elections are also held in Indonesia, Turkey and Iran. Surely Hadi is not suggesting that Presidents Jokowi of Indonesia  and Erdogan of Turkey and former Iranian President Ahmadnejad are “communist” and “chauvinist” for their success at local government elections?
 
(vi)  the allegation DAP had violated PR “morals” in unilaterally and arbitrarily seeking the restoration of the third vote in violation of Pakatan Rakyat Common Policy Framework is baseless. In actual fact, the restoration of local government elections was in both the Pakatan Rakyat national manifesto and the Selangor PR state manifesto for the 13th General Elections.
In March 2010, the Selangor Mentri Besar and the Penang Chief Minister wrote separate letters in the name of the respective PR state governments to the Election Commission asking it to conduct local government elections in their respective states, which was opposed by the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

I am sad to see Hadi resorting to UMNO lies and falsehoods to demonise the DAP, when he should know in his association with the DAP in the Pakatan Rakyat for seven years that  these allegations were  downright lies and falsehoods.

Even worse, Hadi tried to foment division and disunity in DAP, alleging that “some DAP leaders” and “state leaders” disagreed with the DAP national leadership and that the relationship of the PAS leaders with these DAP leaders are still “intact”.

Hadi is entitled to his hallucinations as there is not going to be any “witch-hunt” or “wild goose’ chase” in the DAP  as a result of Hadi’s mischievous insinuations.

What is more important is for everyone to recognise the hard realities of Malaysian politics.

Hard Reality One – Pakatan Rakyat (PR) would have been wiped out in the next general election if Pakatan Rakyat had contested the next polls in total disregard of the violation of the PR Common Policy Framework by PAS, making  hudud  a controversial issue in the election campaign.

In fact, if there had been a violation of the PR Common Policy Framework before the 13th General Election, with hudud as a controversial issue, the results on May 5, 2013 would have  been very different –  as  PR would have lost the Selangor state government which would have reverted  back to UMNO/Barisan Nasional while at the national level, UMNO/BN would have regained  parliamentary two-thirds majority with far-reaching long-term political consequences.

In such circumstances of the violation of the PR Common Policy Framework in the 13GE, the effect among Malay voters would be negligible, but the effect on non-Malay support would be quite devastating, leading to a loss of non-Malay voter support of  up to 20%.

Assuming an increase of 1% Malay support and decrease of 20% support among non-Malay voters in the 13th General Election, the ensuing political scenario on both the national and various state  scenes in Peninsular Malaysia  would be far-reaching, as shown by the following scenarios:

State by State GE13 Projections if Hudud had been an election issue

Scenarios

Support for Opposition	New Scenario
Malay	+1%
Non Malay	-20%

Summary by State

	GE13			New Scenario
Summary Parliament	PAS	PKR	DAP	PAS	PKR	DAP
PERLIS	0	0	0	0	0	0
KEDAH	1	4	0	0	0	0
KELANTAN	9	0	0	9	0	0
TERENGGANU	4	0	0	4	0	0
PULAU PINANG	0	3	7	0	2	7
PAHANG	1	2	1	0	1	0
SELANGOR	4	9	4	2	4	4
W.P. KUALA LUMPUR	0	4	5	0	0	5
NEGERI SEMBILAN	0	1	2	0	0	1
MELAKA	0	1	1	0	0	1
JOHOR	0	1	4	0	0	0
TOTAL	21	28	31	16	7	21

	GE13			New Scenario
Summary Parliament	PAS	PKR	DAP	PAS	PKR	DAP
PERLIS	1	1	0	0	0	0
KEDAH	9	4	2	5	1	0
KELANTAN	32	1	0	34	0	0
TERENGGANU	14	1	0	14	0	0
PULAU PINANG	1	10	19	1	7	17
PERAK	5	5	18	1	2	14
PAHANG	3	2	7	2	0	2
SELANGOR	15	14	15	5	5	11
NEGERI SEMBILAN	0	3	11	0	0	6
MELAKA	1	0	6	0	0	3
JOHOR	4	1	13	0	0	4
TOTAL	85	42	91	62	15	57

Under such  scenarios, instead of winning a total of 89 Parliamentary seats or 40% of the total parliamentary seats, PR’s parliamentary score would have been slashed to 53 seats (44 in Peninsular plus 9 in Sarawak/Sabah) seats or 24%, with the UMNO/BN coalition regaining two-thirds parliamentary majority, enabling it to redelineate electoral constituencies to perpetuate its undemocratic hold on political power.

At the State Assembly level, the 229 State Assembly seats in Peninsular Malaysia won by Pakatan  Rakyat would have been slashed by 42% to 134 State Assembly seats.

Although PR would retain Penang state government with 25 State Assembly seats (DAP 17, PKR 7, PAS 1) as compared to the 13GE total of 30 (DAP 19, PKR 10, PAS 1) , the Selangor state government would be lost back to Umno/Barisan, with the 13GE result of 44 PR seats (DAP 15, PAS 15, PKR 14) slashed to 21 (DAP 11, PAS 5, PKR 5).

The results in the other West Coast states would have been equally devastating.

In Johore, instead of the breakthrough winning 18 PR State Assembly seats (DAP 13, PAS 4, PKR 1) in the 13th General Election, the state  would revert back  to a “fixed deposit” state, with PR winning only 4 state assembly seats – all from DAP with nil seats for both PKR and PAS.

In Perak, the PR score of 28 state assembly seats (DAP 18, PKR 5, PAS 5)  in May 2013 would be slashed to 17 (DAP 14, PKR 2, PAS 1);  in Pahang, the PR  total of 12 seats (DAP 7, PAS 3, PKR 2) reduced to 4 (DAP 2, PAS 2, PKR 0); in Negri Sembilan, PR’s score of 14 (DAP 11, PKR 3, PAS 0) reduced to 6 (DAP 6, PKR 0, PAS 0); and  in Malacca, from 7 (DAP 6, PAS 1, PKR 0) reduced to 3 (DAP 3, PAS 0, PKR 0).

If Hadi had violated the PR Common Policy Framework before the last general election  and hudud had been a controversial election issue in the 13th General Election, PAS would have been completely  wiped out in Johore,   Malacca and Perlis, reduced to only 1 State Assembly seat in Perak, 2 in Pahang and 5 each in Selangor and Kedah – only maintaining their positions in Kelantan and Terengganu.

Hard Reality Two:  In the next 14GE, PAS may lose Kelantan which it had governed for 15 year since 1990, as all that is needed is a 4% swing of votes in the state against PAS in Kelantan.

Hard Reality Three: It will be a major mistake to dismiss the possibility of PAS losing Kelantan state government in the next general election with a 4% swing of votes against PAS, as there was a 15% swing of voters against PAS in Terengganu in the 2004 general election, sweeping out the Terengganu PAS State government after only one term of Hadi as Terengganu Mentri Besar.

Hard Reality Four: Hadi will again by “played out” by Najib in the next Parliamentary meeting as Hadi’s private member’s bill motion on hudud will not see the light of day as Najib has already achieved his objective of breaking up Pakatan Rakyat.