The die seems to be cast, with the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) Common Policy Framework (CPF) set to be broken by PAS Kelantan in the Kelantan State Assembly on Wednesday.
The Kelantan Deputy Mentri Besar Datuk Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah has reiterated almost everyday that against the decision of the Pakatan Rakyat Leadership Council on March 12, the PAS Kelantan State Government is going ahead with the Kelantan Syariah Criminal Code Enactment.
It is would appear that no one in the national PAS leadership is prepared, capable or have the power to remind the PAS Kelantan State Government that it should honour the PR Common Policy Framework.
If hudud had been a hot controversial issue in the 13th General Election on May 5, 2013, the UMNO/Barisan Nasional coalition would not only have regained its two-thirds parliamentary majority, Pakatan Rakyat would have lost Selangor apart from Kedah, and Johore would have reverted as an invincible UMNO/Barisan Nasional “fixed-deposit” state.
Past general elections have proven that hudud issue was never a vote winner for PAS, and Terengganu provides the best illustration.
In the 10th General Election in 1999, PAS and PKR won all eight parliamentary and 28 out of 32 state assembly seats in Terenganu because of the backlash against UMNO arising from Anwar Ibrahim’s “black eye” and the Reformasi movement.
But despite the passing of the Terengganu state hudud enactment in 2001, PAS and PKR only managed to retain 1 out of 8 parliament seats and 4 out of 28 state assembly seats in the 11th General Election in 2004 – losing the Terengganu State Government in the process.
If hudud was a leading campaign issue in the 13th General Elections in 2013, PR would not have achieved the good electoral results of 89 Parliamentary seats and 229 State Assembly seats, as any increase in Malay support for the Pakatan Rakyat parties would be negligible while the loss of non-Malay support for PR candidates would be very significant.
A loss of 10% non-Malay voter support for PR in the 13GE in 2013 would translate into PR losing 19 Parliamentary seats and 40 State Assembly seats; while a loss of 20% non-Malay voter support would translate into PR losing 43 Parliamentary seats and 95 State Assembly seats.
In both scenarios of loss of 10% or 20% of non-Malay voter support, UMNO/Barisan Nasional would have regained two-thirds parliamentary control of Parliament.
If there is a 20% loss of non-Malay voter support, PAS would be reduced from 15 to five state assembly seats in Selangor; from 9 to 5 in Kedah; from 5 to 1 in Perak; from 3 to 2 in Pahang; from 1 to 0 in Malacca, and from 4 to 0 in Johor.
DAP, PAS and PKR achieved their best parliamentary and state assembly results during their tripartite co-operation in the 1999, 2008 and 2013 General Elections as compared to all previous general elections.
In the case of PAS, from a regional party confined largely to its “northern” heartland of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, PAS had gone “national” in the 13th General Election with parliamentary and/or State Assembly representation in every state in Peninsular Malaysia, except for Negri Sembilan.
All these gains will go to nought if hudud had been a hot controversial issue in the 2013 general election, or if Pakatan Rakyat is forced to disintegrate because of the failure to uphold the PR Common Policy Framework.
In such a case, the victors will be UMNO/Barisan Nasional, while the losers will be the healthy democratic development in Malaysia leading to the ousting of UMNO/BN from Putrajaya in the 14th General Elections.