The reiteration of the PAS Kelantan Deputy Mentri Besar Datuk Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah that PAS would table the Kelantan Syariah Criminal Code Bill “without any amendment, regardless of DAP’s view” in the Kelantan State Assembly on Wednesday, 18th March 2015, would be pushing the seven-year-old Pakatan Rakyat to breaking point.
It is not just the DAP views, but if the decisions made at the Pakatan Rakyat Leadership Council, represented by the top leaders of DAP, PKR and PAS, including the latest PR Leadership Council meeting of March 12, 2015, are repeatedly disregarded or violated, then the present format of Pakatan Rakyat cannot function or continue.
This will be a great pity, for it will mark the triumph of UMNO conspirators who have been trying their utmost in the past seven years to use the bait of “UG” (unity government between UMNO and PAS) and in the past year the additional bait of “hudud implementation in Kelantan” to achieve their objective to divide, destabilize and destroy the most formidable coalition challenge to be faced by UMNO/BN – the Pakatan Rakyat of DAP, PKR and PAS – as well as to save UMNO from being voted out of office in Putrajaya in the 14GE.
The writing on the wall is unmistakable.
For the first time in electoral history in Malaysia, the UMNO/BN government in Putrajaya is a minority government with support of only 47% of the electorate – and for the second successive general elections, denied of its unbroken two-thirds parliamentary majority for 51 years from 1957 – 2008.
A recent opinion survey showed that the Prime Minister’s approval rating dropped to 44% in January from 48% in October 2014 as more people felt his government was headed in the wrong direction in economic matters.
The UMNO/BN is set for both an implosion and an explosion, despite the brave talk by the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak at the 2015 Kedah UMNO Convention in Alor Setar yesterday that it was capable remaining in power and winning the 14GE if “unwanted people” and “jemuan jemuan” like Mahathir, Daim and Zam are not in the party.
There can be reason for such bravado from Najib (who even faced a revolt from his No. 2, the Deputy Prime Minister, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin over his handling of the RM42 billion 1MDB scandal), unless he believes that Pakatan Rakyat, the most formidable threat to UMNO/BN, is on the verge of rupture and even disintegration because of the success of UMNO “UG” conspirators using the lure of hudud implementation in Kelantan to divide, destabilize and destroy PR.
If Pakatan Rakyat is no more, Najib and UMNO leaders believe that the multiple crisis of confidence arising from 1MDB scandal and the stack of problems relating to political, economic, educational, good governance, rule of law and human rights issues would be more manageable.
MCA and Gerakan leaders are playing with fire by buying into the UMNO “UG” plot to divide, destabilize and destroy PR, and giving the mandate to UMNO Kelantan State Assemblymen to vote in support of PAS Kelantan’s hudud proposal in the Kelantan State Assembly – working on the Machiavellian principle that “the end justifies the means”.
The end is the destruction of Pakatan Rakat and the means their acquiescence to Kelantan UMNO State Assemblymen supporting PAS Kelantan on hudud implementation in the Kelantan State Assembly.
If MCA and Gerakan can open the breach to agree to UMNO Kelantan State Assemblymen supporting PAS on hudud implementation in Kelantan, aren’t they setting a precedent to future agreement to UMNO State Assemblymen in other states agreeing to hudud implementation, and even finally, agreeing to UMNO MPs supporting hudud implementation in Parliament?
DAP will remain constant and consistent that hudud laws are not within the Pakatan Rakyat Common Policy Framework and this was also the stand not only of the late Mursyidul Am, Datuk Seri Nik Aziz Nik Mat but also of PAS President, Datuk Seri Hadi Awang that hudud is not in the list of PR priorities.
In May 2012 in Hulu Terengganu, PAS President Datuk Seri Hadi Awang said hudud could only be implemented if there are adequate conditions, giving as examples that if there is no minimum wage provision or resolution of the unemployment problem, the conditions for implementation for hudud do not exist.
If Pakatan Rakyat, the second Opposition Coalition in the nation’s history after Barisan Alternative, comes to the end of the road, it will have far-reaching political implications and repercussions with the likely loss of all the historic electoral gains in the 2013 General Elections.
Firstly, DAP, PAS and PKR achieved their best parliamentary and state assembly results during their tripartite co-operation in the 1999, 2008 and 2013 General Elections.
In the case of PAS, from a regional party confined largely to its “northern” heartland of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, PAS had gone “national” in the 13th General Election with parliamentary and/or State Assembly representation in every state in Peninsular Malaysia, except for Negri Sembilan.
DAP and PKR have also benefitted from the Pakatan Rakyat partnership, with the DAP winning 38 Parliamentary and 107 State Assembly seats and PKR winning 28 Parliamentary and 42 State Assembly seats.
All these electoral gains of the three Pakatan Rakyat parties are in the balance if there is no Pakatan Rakyat in the 14th General Elections.
Secondly, Pakatan Rakyat offers Malaysians the first opportunity of a new Federal Government which does not come from UMNO/BN.
Both these historic electoral gains are likely to be lost if Pakatan Rakyat is no more.
However, if the electorate loses confidence in the Pakatan Rakyat because of a fundamental breach of the PR Common Policy Framework, then the three component parties of DAP, PKR and PAS can fare even worse in the 14th GE compared to the results achieved in the 1999, 2008 and 2013 General Elections.
These are among the sober realities and conundrums PR leaders will have to confront in the next few days.