Yesterday I wrote about how hudud was never a vote-winner for PAS in previous elections and would have given back to the Barisan National (BN) two-thirds majority control of parliament and cost Pakatan Rakyat (PR) the state of Selangor if hudud had been part of the PR Manifesto prior to GE2013. PR would still have lost the Kedah state government and Johor would have reverted to being a BN “fixed deposit” state.
How would PR’s performance in the other states been affected namely Perak, Pahang, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka if hudud had been a major controversial issue in the 13GE?
The answer is that Pakatan Rakyat would have suffered devastating setbacks in Perak, Pahang, Negri Sembilan and Melaka in the 13GE if hudud had been a major controversial issue in the 2013 general elections.
In Perak, Pakatan was two seats short of forming the state government in GE2013. If hudud had been part of Pakatan’s manifesto, instead of the 28 state seats won, PR would have only won 17 state seats with a 20% drop in non-Malay support (Scenario 3). PAS and PKR would have been reduced to 1 and 2 seats respectively from 5 seats each. DAP would have only won 14 seats rather than the 18 it actually won. (Table 1 below)
Table 1: Number of state seats PR would have won in Perak in GE13 under 3 different scenarios
| Actual GE13 results | Scenario 1 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 10%) | Scenario 2 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 15%) | Scenario 3 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 20%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAS | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| DAP | 18 | 18 | 17 | 14 |
| PKR | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Total | 28 (47%) | 23 (39%) | 21 (36%) | 17 (29%) |
In Pahang, PR won 12 out of 42 state seats or 28% in GE2013. With hudud, PR would have only won 4 seats under the worst outcome of a 20% fall in non-Malay support (Scenario 3). PAS and DAP would have only won 2 seats each (Table 2 below).
Table 2: Number of state seats PR would have won in Pahang in GE13 under 3 different scenarios
| Actual GE13 results | Scenario 1 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 10%) | Scenario 2 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 15%) | Scenario 3 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 20%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAS | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| DAP | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| PKR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 12 (28%) | 11 (26%) | 5 (12%) | 4 (10%) |
In Negeri Sembilan, PR was successful in denying BN a two-thirds control of the state legislature by winning 14 out of 36 state seats or 39% in GE2013. With hudud, PR would have won a mere 6 seats or 17% under Scenario 3. (Table 3 below)
Table 3: Number of state seats PR would have won in Negeri Sembilan in GE13 under 3 different scenarios
| Actual GE13 results | Scenario 1 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 10%) | Scenario 2 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 15%) | Scenario 3 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 20%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DAP | 11 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| PKR | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Total | 14 (39%) | 12 (33%) | 9 (25%) | 6 (17%) |
In Melaka, PR won 7 out of 28 or 25% of state seats in GE2013. With hudud, under the worst projection of a 20% fall in non-Malay support, PR would have been reduced to a mere 3 seats or 11%, all won by the DAP.
Table 4: Number of state seats PR would have won in Melaka in GE13 under 3 different scenarios
| Actual GE13 results | Scenario 1 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 10%) | Scenario 1 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 15%) | Scenario 1 (PR Malay vote increase by 1%, Non-Malay vote decrease by 20%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| DAP | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| PKR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 7 (25%) | 5 (18%) | 4 (14%) | 3 (11%) |
We have been down this path before just prior to the 2004 general elections.
PAS insistence of passing the hudud enactment in Terengganu led to the DAP leaving the Barisan Alternatif in 2001. BN went on to a historic victory in 2004 by winning 91% of parliament seats and 89% of state seats in Peninsular Malaysia.
Pakatan Rakyat has been through many challenges since 2008. We have governed and continue to govern as a coalition at the state level.
Many of our comrades-at-arms in PR continue to be persecuted and prosecuted by the BN regime.
Many of them could lose their state and parliament seats if the judicial system dispenses the same kind of justice which was shown to Karpal Singh and Anwar Ibrahim.
Our focus should be on those who continue to abuse their powers, who continue to benefit from corruption, who continue to destroy our institutions and not to be distracted from our larger goal of reforming the country and focusing on the goal to win Putrajaya in GE14 in order to give Malaysians a better future for all.