In the last two days, I had discussed the first two objectives of the Battle of Gelang Patah:
Objective One: to target the six Parliamentary and 13 State Assembly seats in south Johore to pave the way for Pakatan Rakyat to Putrajaya in the 13th General Elections. The six Parliamentary seats are Johor Bahru, Pasir Gudang, Tebrau, Gelang Patah, Kulai and Pulai. The 13 State Assembly seats are: Stulang, Tanjong Puteri, Johore Jaya, Permas, Puteri Wangsa, Tiram, Skudai, Nusajaya, Pengkalan Rinting, Kempas, Senai, Bukit Batu and Bukit Permai.
Objective Two: to target a total of 19 Parliamentary seats and 30 State Assembly seats in the state of Johor, including the six Parliamentary and 13 State Assembly seats in South Johore which I had already mentioned. The additional 13 Parliamentary seats in the rest of Johore are Tanjong Piai, Kluang, Batu Pahat, Bakri, Labis, Segamat, Sekijang, Ledang, Muar, Ayer Hitam, Sri Gading, Simpang Rengam and Sembrong. The additional 17 State Assemby seats are Pekan Nenas, Mengkibol, Penggaram, Bentayam, Sungai Abong, Bekok, Jementah, Tangkak, Paloh, Yong Peng, Mahkota, Layang-Layang, Parit Yaani, Maharani, Gambir, Tenang and Pemanis.
I am not claiming that Pakatan Rakyat can score a bullseye and win all the 19 Parliamentary and 30 State Assembly seats in Johore mentioned. In fact, if Pakatan Rakyat can achieve 50 per cent of this target, it is already a “phenomenal political revolution” in Johor, bearing in mind the arrogant boasts of Barisan Nasional leaders just five years ago before the 2008 general elections that they would ensure that Johore would become a “zero Opposition” state!
I am of course expecting hitting a more than 50% success for the PR target of 19 Parliamentary and 30 State Assembly seats in Johore the 13GE.
In fact, it would be easier to achieve the objective of winning more than one-third of the Parliamentary seats in Johore and help propel Pakatan Rakyat to Putrajaya to form the new Federal Government than to win a simple majority in the State Assembly seats to form the next Johore State Government in the 13GE.
For the past ten days, Barisan Nasional leaders have been attacking me for returning to my home state to contest in Gelang Patah, with more than one leader warning that it could backfire and that I could be defeated in Gelang Patah.
I agree that my leaving Ipoh Timor where I had won with a majority of 21,000 votes in the 2008 general election to contest in Gelang Patah where the MCA/BN candidates had won with humongous majorities of over 8,000 votes in 2008 and over 31,000 votes in 2004 is a very high-risk venture.
But I am prepared to accept all the risks of being “kubured” (word coined by BN propagandists) in Gelang Patah, as I am not prepared to be “kiasu” and “kiasi” like the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who up to now is unable to decide when the dissolve Parliament to hold the 13GE although his premiership, Cabinet and Government have long “expired” in credibility and legitimacy after the fifth anniversary of the “308 political tsunami” on March 8.
The Battle of Gelang Patah is never about the victory or defeat of an individual or the gains or losses of individual parties.
It is about the Battle of Johor, whether Johore can become a “kingmaker” in the 13GE to spark a political tsunami in the country from the south and cross the South China Sea to effect the first peaceful and democratic transfer of federal power from Barisan Nasional to Pakatan Rakyat.
It is about the Battle of Malaysia, which takes me to the Third Objective of the Battle of Gelang Patah – to signal in clear and unmistakable terms that the Barisan Nasional’s three fixed deposit states of Johore, Sabah and Sarawak are “Going, Going, Gone!”
In the 13GE, the three “fixed deposit states” of Sabah, Sarawak and Johore hold the keys to Putrajaya.
In the 2008 General Elections, PR won 82 parliamentary seats while BN won 140 seats. If in the 13GE, PR can win at least 40% of the total of 83 parliamentary seats in these three states, i.e. 33 out of a total of 83 seats in Johore, Sabah and Sarawak, PR would have exceeded the magic number of 112 for a simple majority of the 222 parliamentary seats.
The Third Objective of the Battle of Gelang Patah is to target to win 33 Parliamentary seats for Pakatan Rakyat in the three BN “fixed-deposit states” of Johore, Sabah and Sarawak.
However, PR can only win with a good and comfortable majority if we can win at least 125 parliamentary seats (i.e. a majority of 28) in 13GE, comprising say 45 seats for PKR and 40 seats each for DAP and PAS.
The question is whether PR can win another 10 – 12 parliamentary seats from Barisan Nasional’s total of 140 seats won in 2008 from states other than the three “fixed deposit states” of Johore, Sabah and Sarawak.
I will discuss this Fourth Objective of the Battle of Gelang Patah tomorrow.
My dear leaders,
NO AROOOOOOOOGANCE PLEASE. Please stay humble. Please stay relevant. Avoid all the minefields that they are laying out for you.
GE13 is for you all to lose. Please continue to campaign, continue to engage with the people, continue to preach the need for change to save Malaysia especially for the younger generation.
We must change the tenant at Putrajaya. GE 13 is coming soon. He cannot run away for too long. We have waited 4+years. Another few weeks to go. Let us double our effort and head for the finishing line. We have to finish the work we started in 2008. First to GE 13, then to Putrajaya.
Change we must. Change we can. Change we shall.
Kit, I salute your gallant effort to spark a political tsunami in the country from the south and cross the South China Sea to effect the first peaceful and democratic transfer of federal power from Barisan Nasional to Pakatan Rakyat.
For the past ten days, Barisan Nasional leaders have been attacking me for returning to my home state to contest in Gelang Patah, with more than one leader warning that it could backfire and that I could be defeated in Gelang Patah. – End of quote
LKS’s return to his home state has stirred mortal fear in the scums’ party in JB!
Especially those in the MCA which must seek Malay areas to field their candidates because their own community despised them!
Under the circumstances, what can these collaborators do, except to obey every whim and command of their UMNO/BN masters?
That shows how irrelevant they are to the Chinese community.
It’s been one long, long sell-out!!!!
I live in JB.
For people in Johor who have not decided or not sure about the important issues, this may help you to decide –
http://www.malaysiawatch4.blogspot.com/2013/03/undecided-watch-malaysia-question-of.html
What Lim Kit Siang is doing will make Najib feels more confuse and insecure.
LKS is famous to lead a charge in every election…with his do or die attitude…putting his fate onto voters hands….and today’s voters are totally different from the past…..plus thousands of new young voters…that are dead set to want a change of guards at Putra Jaya.
UMNO/BN = Devils’ Party
Speciality: Corruption, Irresponsibility and Opaqueness.
PR = Angels’ Party
Speciality: Competence, Accountability and Transparency.
So, between the two, who will you vote for in GE13?
It’s a cinch!!!
Isn’t it?
Of course Kit could lose Gelang Patah and be relegated to margins of retired opposition’s spokesman like TDM is to UMNO but it is risk worth taking. After all he is returning to his home state. The GE 13 is a defining point of electoral history. For the first time the Opposition has a chance, no matter slim. Its message: let’s move beyond politics of identity and grievance based on race and narrowly defined patronage politics when service to all groups and nation is more important than serving oneself or one’s own group – no different actually from Najib’s 1 Malaysia except that the ruling party could only give it lip service, being torn by internal factionalism. It is calling to younger generation of Malaysians comprising many new voters tired of partisan politics of race/entailment and patronage and hoping for change to bring it to the tipping point. Here whilst the Sarawak and Sabah fixed deposit states are now facing pressure from global environmental campaigner (Global Link)’s expose and Sulu insurgency respectively, the DAP takes the charge against the odds to the gates of UMNo’s Southern bastion/citadel. It is signal that the enemies are already at the gates, whilst the general inside is still afraid to call the day for the fight! In terms of morale of troops, it is Confidence versus Diffidence!
“….politics of race/enTITLEment….
big dream , too much snoring not good for your health
ABCD
Stay calm and focused. The tide is still strong for PR to take over from BN (against all the fraud BN will do); and best of luck. Saudra’s move to Gelang Patah may be a loss to him personally (hope not) but will be great boost for PR all over Malaysia and to Johor especially. Hope PAS and PKR will also field “strong candidates” to match DAP and Kit Siang, in Johor.
Dear LKS,
Your recent articles/blogs on GE13 may turn off some would be favourable voters for PR/DAP. You may want to create panic in UMNO-BN by counting the seats to be won, but by doing so will infuriate some fence-sitters, counting the chicks before they are hatched.
Sometimes it’s better to move your chess in silence.
Just don’t be over-articulating and be construed as being arrogant.
I think PM will let Parliament dissolve on its own even after coming back from umrah. A weak and indecisive leader will lead us no where but deeper into the red. Our debts are already at an all time high of 54% of our GDP and it can only go up.
Since LKS has decided to return home to contest in Gelang Patah to lead PR to another “Political Tsunami” in the Southern Region, it is only RIGHT that Johoreans come out in full force to give PR their full support by voting them in for a change.
LKS for PM’ship , can eh
Can also Chengho…..but LKS prefers to be a moderator…checking things…country’s anti corruption chief…and smart enough not to be PM.
The Constitution didn’t say only Malay can be PM