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Malaysia will survive GE13, says ‘Dr Doom’

By ZURAIRI AR | MARCH 01, 2013
The Malaysian Insider

KUALA LUMPUR, March 1 — The Malaysian economy will weather the next general election and stay robust even with a change in government, renowned world economist Nouriel Roubini said today.

Roubini, also known in the media as “Dr Doom” for his consistently pessimistic economic outlook, gave his prediction today amid previous warnings by names such as veteran statesman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and former top cop Tan Sri Musa Hassan that Malaysia will descend into political and economic chaos should Pakatan Rakyat (PR) wins the next polls.

“I would say whatever the result is going to be, this country has shown institutional and political stability,” Roubini said here in his keynote address at the Datum Economic Forum 2013.

“Investors recognised that, and therefore as long as there is a democratic process, as long as there’ll be policy clarity after those elections, it’s certainly going to be positive.”

Roubini admitted that the electoral process itself will introduce elements of uncertainty for investors, but refused to comment on the election date that has yet to be announced.
Continue reading “Malaysia will survive GE13, says ‘Dr Doom’”

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Pengiraan Detik 41 Hari ke PRU13 – Cabaran buat Najib untuk memastikan PRU13 adalah pertandingan antara perikatan mana yang mampu berkhidmat untuk Melayu, Cina, India, Orang Asli, Kadazan dan Iban bukannya pertandingan siapa lebih hebat menipu atau menghasut kebencian atau beralih kepadan politik ketakutan

Febuari 2013 telah tiba dan berlalu –bulan yang berkemungkinan tercatat di dalam sejarah sebagai bulan paling kritikal dan penting dalam empat tahun sebagai Perdana Menteri dan 37 tahun kerjaya politik Datuk Seri Najib Razak kerana ini merupakan bulan beliau membatalkan “keputusan muktamad” terbaru beliau untuk membubarkan Parlimen dan mengadakan Pilihan Raya Umum ke-13 pada bulan Mac.

Pada awal Januari, Perdana Menteri keenam Malaysia yang bakal berusia 60 tahun lagi enam bulan pada 23 Julai, telah dipujuk oleh strategis politiknya untuk tetapkan fikiran supaya mengakhiri dolak-dalik selama dua tahun dan membubarkan Parlimen pada minggu terakhir Febuari untuk akhirnya mendapatkan mandat daripada 13.3 juta pengundi dalam Pilihan Raya ke-13, diyakinkan bahawa beliau mempunyai “senjata rahsia” untuk memikat dan menakut-nakutkan pengundi, termasuklah:

  • RM3.5 juta jemputan kepada bintang K-Pop Korea Selatan Psy bukan sahaja untuk mempersembahkan Gangnam Style tetapi juga untuk mempopularkan Gangnam 1Malaysia Style yang dipersembahkan Psy bersama Najib, Rosmah dan Ng Yen Yen di Pulau Pinang pada hari kedua Tahun Baru Cina;
  • Filem 13 Mei yang boleh menimbulkan perbahalahan dan perpecahan, “Tanda Putera”, memberikan gambaran serong, memecah-belah dan kisah tidak benar punca rusuhan 13 Mei pada tahun 1969 untuk mengapi-apikan sentiment pengundi Melayu dan menakut-nakutkan pengundi bukan Melayu;
  • Janji BR1M 3.0 sekiranya UMNO/BN dipilih semula;
  • Perdana Menteri menandatangani Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya Transparency International bagi menggambarkan Najib sebagai wira baru memerangi rasuah dan salahguna kuasa;
  • Lanjutan Projek IC ke Semenanjung Malaysia bagi penipuan “warganegara untuk undi” di Sabah yang terbukti begitu berjaya dalam mengukuhkan kuasa politik UMNO di “Negeri Bawah Bayu”; dan
  • 10,000 tentera cybertrooper UMNO/BN untuk mencetuskan huru-hara dan kacau-bilau di media sosial dengan penipuan, pembohongan dan hasutan kebencian terhadap isu kaum dan agama.

Continue reading “Pengiraan Detik 41 Hari ke PRU13 – Cabaran buat Najib untuk memastikan PRU13 adalah pertandingan antara perikatan mana yang mampu berkhidmat untuk Melayu, Cina, India, Orang Asli, Kadazan dan Iban bukannya pertandingan siapa lebih hebat menipu atau menghasut kebencian atau beralih kepadan politik ketakutan”

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Two M’sians among 12 killed in Lahad Datu

From fb

Tweets:

1. Most shocking at death of 2 police cammandoes n 2 injured. http://goo.gl/YMnkq 2 M’sians among 12 killed in Lahad Datu (Mkini)

2. Death of two police commandoes unacceptable as Msian police enjoy superior security strength/logistics. Hisham also told press conference today “no deaths”

(From Malaysiakini) A spokesperson of the sultanate of Sulu claimed that 10 people were killed and four others wounded in a exchange of fire between Malaysian security forces and the Sulu sultanate intruders in Lahad Datu this morning.

Meanwhile, Bernama reported that two Malaysian police commandoes were killed in a mortar attack, and that another two injured soldiers have since been airlifted to a hospital.

ABS-CBNnews reported that Sulu sultanate spokesperson Abraham Idjirani said he had just talked to the self-proclaimed Sulu sultan Jamalul Kiram’s (left) brother Azzimudie Kiram, who heads the armed group in Lahad Datu. Continue reading “Two M’sians among 12 killed in Lahad Datu”

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Pengiraan Detik 42 Hari ke PRU13 – Keputusan impian saya untuk PRU13: Pakatan Rakyat menang dengan sekurang-kurangnya 125 Ahli Parlimen PR terdiri daripada 45 Ahli Parlimen PKR dan 40 Ahli Parlimen dari DAP dan PAS tiap parti

he Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (ASLI) meramalkan kejayaan Barisan Nasional dalam PRU13 dengan anggaran 123 hingga 135 kerusi ( iaitu majoriti 24-48 kerusi) dan membentangkan tiga kemungkinan untuk Pilihan Raya PRU13, yakni:

  • Senario 1: Status quo sekarang kekal, iaitu 140 kerusi Barisan Nasional (BN) berbanding82 kerusi untuk Pakatan Rakyat (PR) berikutan “tsunami politik” 8 Mac, 2008 dalam Pilihan Raya Umum ke-12.
  • Senario 2: Merosotnya majoriti untuk BN, iaitu kurang daripada majoriti 58 kerusi selepas “tsunami politik” 308; dan
  • Senario 3: BN memperoleh semula majoriti dua pertiga, iaitu memenangi sekurang-kurangnya 148 kerusi parlimen atau minimum majoriti 74 kerusi

Akan tetapi ada dua lagi kemungkinan, meramalkan kemenangan Pakatan Rakyat, yakni:

  • Senario 4: Kemenangan buat Pakatan Rakyat dengan majority tipis.
  • Senario 5: Kemenangan buat PR dengan majoriti selesa.

Continue reading “Pengiraan Detik 42 Hari ke PRU13 – Keputusan impian saya untuk PRU13: Pakatan Rakyat menang dengan sekurang-kurangnya 125 Ahli Parlimen PR terdiri daripada 45 Ahli Parlimen PKR dan 40 Ahli Parlimen dari DAP dan PAS tiap parti”

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Pengiraan Detik 43 Hari ke PRU13 – Apakah Transparency International Malaysia boleh memadam dan membatalkan penandatangan kepada Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya yang terang-terangan melanggar empat prinsipnya menjelang PRU13?

Menteri Besar Pahang Datuk Seri Adnan Yaakob telah mengikut jejak Perdana Menteri, Datuk Seri Najib Razak dan Menteri di Jabatan Perdana Menteri, Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz untuk mengkritik pemimpin Pakatan Rakyat kerana enggan menandatangani Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya Transparency International-Malaysia (TIM) yang telah ditandatangani Perdana Menteri Rabu lalu.

Adnan mengulangi topik lama bahawa pemimpin Pakatan Rakyat enggan menandatangani Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya TIM kerana mereka menyembunyikan sesuatu dan mereka masih ragu-ragu sama ada perikatan oposisi mampu metadbir negara dengan bertanggungjawab jika mendapat kuasa.

Bercakap ketika pembukaan mesyuarat Kongres Kesatuan Sekerja Malaysia (MTUC) di Kuantan pada Ahad, Adnan berkata: “jika berlaku salah guna kuasa nanti mereka tidak mahu bertanggungjawab dan memberi alasan bahawa mereka tidak sign ikrar tersebut.”

Saya terkejut dengan hujah tidak masuk akal yang dilontarkan seorang Menteri Besar, mengabaikan terus undang-undang, ajaran agama dan etika terhadap rasuah dan salahguna kuasa.

Adakah Adnan benar-benar bermaksud bahawa pemimpin Barisan Nasional, baik di perinkat negeri atau negara, baik Perdana Menteri, Timbalan Perdana Menteri, Menteri-Menteri, Menteri-Menteri Besar, Ketua Menteri dan Exco Negeri boleh didakwa mengamalkan rasuah dan salahguna kuasa semata-mata kerana mereka belum lagi menandatangani Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya TI?

Alasan tempang dari pemimpin UMNO/BN seperti itulah yang telah membangkitkan persoalan dan kebimbangan sama ada

Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya TIM bermakna atau sama ada digunakan untuk “membersihkan” semua rasuah dan salahguna kuasa yang telah dilakukan pemimpin UMNO/BN dulu baik di peringkat negara atau negeri. Continue reading “Pengiraan Detik 43 Hari ke PRU13 – Apakah Transparency International Malaysia boleh memadam dan membatalkan penandatangan kepada Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya yang terang-terangan melanggar empat prinsipnya menjelang PRU13?”

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Pengiraan Detik 44 Hari ke PRU13 – Sekiranya Suharto atau Marcos telah menandatangani Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya sewaktu di puncak kuasa, apakah akan memperhebat atau mencemar ikrar itu?

Saya tidak terkejut bahawa tiada sebarang jawapan atau apa-apa saja daripada Perdana Menteri, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, Kabinet atau UMNO/Barisan Nasional terhadap cadangan saya di Kuching semalam supaya dilampirkan 10 Poin Tambahan kepada Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya Transparency International (TI) bagi memastikan penandatangan menurunkan tandatangan ke atas dokumen yang bermakna supaya membawa era baru integrity dan tadbir urus baik dan bukan sekadar aksi publisiti yang tidak memberikan apa-apa kesan terhadap kualiti integriti dan tadbir urus baik kerajaan akan datang.

Beberapa Ahli Parlimen Pakatan Rakyat telah menandatangani Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya TI sebelum Najib menurunkan tandatangan dengan heboh Rabu lalu.

Disebabkan Najib telah menandatangani Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya TI yang maka timbul keraguan tentang tujuan dan makna menandatangi ikrar sedemikian, memandangkan sepanjang empat tahun sebagai Perdana Menteri, Najib tidak pernah menunjukkan sebarang iltizam atau keseriusan untuk memerangi rasuah dan salahguna kuasa.

Ini sebabnya mengapa Malaysia telah menjunam ke kedudukan terburuk dalam Indeks Persepsi Rasuah (CPI) TI sepanjang empat tahun beliau menjadi Perdana Menteri dari 2009 ke 2012 berbanding 18 tahun lalu.

Bagaimana Najib dapat meyakinkan rakyat Malaysia bahawa beliau kini telah “bertukar haluan” memerangi rasuah dan salahguna kuasa apabila Malaysia sepanjang empat tahun lalu paling korup dalam tempoh 56 tahun jika dibandingkan dengan lima Perdana Menteri sebelumnya, baik Tunku Abdul Rahman, Tun Razak, Tun Hussein, Tun Mahathir atau Tun Abdullah?

Bolehkah dengan menurunkan tandatangan pada Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya TI Najib menyucikan dirinya daripada semua kegagalan untuk memeriksa rasuah dan salahguna kuasa sepanjang empat tahun lalu atau penglibatannya sendiri dalam urusan rasuah dan salahguna kuasa? Continue reading “Pengiraan Detik 44 Hari ke PRU13 – Sekiranya Suharto atau Marcos telah menandatangani Ikrar Integriti Pilihan Raya sewaktu di puncak kuasa, apakah akan memperhebat atau mencemar ikrar itu?”

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41-Day Countdown to 13GE – Challenge to Najib to ensure 13GE is a contest which coalition can do more to serve the Malays, Chinese, Indians, Orang Asli, Kadazans and Ibans instead of a contest of who could tell more lies or incite hatred or resort to politics of fear

February 2013 has come and gone – a month which will probably go down in history as the most critical and crucial month of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s four-year premiership and 37-year political career as this is the month he abandoned his latest “final decision” to dissolve Parliament and to hold the 13th General Elections in March.

In early January, the sixth Malaysian Prime Minister who turns 60 in five months’ time on 23rd July, had been persuaded by his political strategists to make up his mind to end his two-year flip-flops and to dissolve Parliament in the last week of February to finally seek a mandate from the 13.3 million voters in the 13th General Elections, buoyed up by the knowledge that he had an armoury of “secret weapons” to woo or intimidate the voters, including:

  • The RM3.5 million invitation to South Korean K-Pop superstar Psy not only to perform Gangnam Style but to popularise Gangnam 1Malaysia Style starring Psy with Najib, Rosmah and Ng Yen Yen in Penang on the second day of the Chinese New Year;

  • The tendentious and divisive May 13 film, “Tanda Putra”, giving a totally divisive, distorted and untrue account of the causes of the May 13 riots in 1969 to inflame the sentiments of Malay voters on the one hand and to frighten the non-Malay voters on the other;

  • Promise of BRIM 3.0 if UMNO/BN is re-elected;

  • The Prime Minister’s signing of Transparency International’s Election Integrity Pledge to present Najib as a new convert to the battle against corruption and abuses of power;

  • The extension of Project IC to Peninsular Malaysia for the “citizenship-for-votes” scams in Sabah which have proved to be so successful in entrenching UMNO political power in the “Land below the Wind”’; and

  • An army of 10,000 UMNO/BN cybertroopers to create havoc and mayhem on the social media with lies, falsehoods and incitement of hatred on race and religious issues.

Continue reading “41-Day Countdown to 13GE – Challenge to Najib to ensure 13GE is a contest which coalition can do more to serve the Malays, Chinese, Indians, Orang Asli, Kadazans and Ibans instead of a contest of who could tell more lies or incite hatred or resort to politics of fear”

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From race and religion to Psy

Hafiz Noor Shams
The Malaysian Insider
Feb 28, 2013

FEB 28 — For better or worse, quantity is important in a democratic contest. It is about gaining the majority. It is about popularity.

With that as the context, we have to remember we live in a young society. The Department of Statistics estimates that the median Malaysia age in 2010 was slightly above 26 years. In simpler terms, the age of one half of the population today is younger than the median just three years ago. The profile of the Malaysian electorate pretty much reflects the demographics of our society.

Thanks to their sheer size, those in their 20s and 30s are clearly the biggest and thus the most important group. Collectively they can decisively determine the path which the country would take.

But what makes these young people stand out further politically is that most of them will be voting in a national election for the first time in their lives. Their minds more flexible than those belonging to the older generation who more often than not are hung up on legacy issues. Ibrahim Ali, for instance, still has the May 13 incident as his talking point.

So, young adults are the cool kids on the block and the two nationally-relevant political factions are competing to be the friend of these cool kids. The Barisan Nasional-led federal government has launched several policies for that purpose and chief among them are affordable housing and other cash transfers. The federal opposition Pakatan Rakyat promises the same young adults free tertiary education, among others. Both sides are pulling out all stops to be the one special friend.

While I find many of those policies too populist, at least those policies are serious in the sense that they affect a person’s welfare. The existence of a real policy competition between two credible sides is heartening since previously, it was really all about the old, stale, suffocating issues of race and religion. That is not to say that race and religion are no longer factors but at the very least, we have something substantive to base our election on.

But I do have a feeling that the courting is starting to go a bit too far and starting to appear regressive. It is starting to go into the realm of the trivial that debases the very serious nature of our elections. In an effort to become ever more popular, political parties are starting to make entertainment the focal point of their political events, instead of what the parties stand for. Continue reading “From race and religion to Psy”

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Who will be PM?

P Gunasegaram
Malaysiakini
5:50PM Feb 28, 2013

QUESTION TIME On the surface, that seems an easy enough question to answer. Perhaps if Pakatan Rakyat wins, then almost everyone expects Anwar Ibrahim to become prime minister, even though there are minor dissenting voices from among coalition partners, notably PAS.

So why should not Najib Abdul Razak become prime minister if Barisan Nasional wins? Sure he will, for a start but how long he remains prime minister will depend crucially on how well – or badly – BN does at the polls.

As it is there is not a single person I could find who does not think there is some kind of tension between Najib and his deputy, both as Umno head and prime minister, Muhyiddin Yassin. The popular wisdom is that Muhyiddin is poised to take on Najib if BN does not do well enough in the polls.

This column took a look at who is likely to win the polls about a month ago. In the unlikely event that Pakatan wins, Anwar is the clear choice for prime minister.

In the likely event that BN wins, the situation is not very clear-cut. Recall that Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was pressured to step down as Umno head and prime minister even though he was a mere eight seats short of a two-thirds majority in the 2008 elections.

At the federal level it was a victory that would have counted as respectable in most countries except Malaysia, and of course our neighbour down south, Singapore.

The bigger rub was the unprecedented loss of five states in peninsular Malaysia and the popular vote here being just over 50 percent – for the opposition. Unquestionably Sabah and Sarawak saved the day for BN.

Abdullah had to come down from a major victory previously in 2004 when BN won over 90 percent of parliamentary seats and all states but Kelantan. The strong turn against BN in the peninsula was the reason Abdullah had to relent to pressure within his party to go, which he did later in 2008.

That resulted in Najib becoming the longest serving prime minister and Umno head without a direct mandate from the people via elections. But the day of reckoning is near and by June 28 at the latest the die will be cast. Then it will become clear, if BN wins, whether Najib will face pressure to cede the reins of power to Muhyiddin.

At the federal level, the common view, which I share, is that BN will not regain its two-thirds majority but is likely to remain in control via a smaller majority. That is not likely to help Najib’s case any, unless there are mitigating factors, aka the results of the state elections. Continue reading “Who will be PM?”