The Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (ASLI) forecasts a Barisan Nasional victory in the 13GE with an expected 123 to 135 seats ( i.e. a majority of 24 – 48 seats) and presented three possible outcomes for the 13th General Elections, viz:
• Scenario 1: The present status quo remains, i.e. 140 Barisan Nasional (BN) seats as against 82 seats for Pakatan Rakyat (PR) following the March 8, 2008 “political tsunami” in the 12th General Elections.
• Scenario 2: A reduced majority for BN, i.e. less than 58-seat majority after the 308 “political tsunami”; and
• Scenario 3: BN regains two-thirds majority, i.e. winning at least 148 parliamentary seats or minimum of 74-seat majority.
There are however two other possible outcomes, predicated on a Pakatan Rakyat victory, viz:
• Scenario 4: Victory for Pakatan Rakyat with narrow majority.
• Scenario 5: Victory for PR with good and comfortable majority.
The fourth scenario has been postulated by none other than the Johore Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman when he spoke to Kulai Chinese organisations early last month, conceding that the most the PR could win would be a slim majority of 5% to 10% of the parliamentary seats.
PR winning a slim 5% to 10% parliamentary majority would range from PR winning 117 seats to BN’s 105 seats giving PR a 12-seat majority (i.e. 5.5% majority) to PR winning 122 seats to BN’s 100 seats with a majority of 22 seats (i.e. 10% majority).
In fact, Ghani’s estimate that PR could win in the 13GE with a majority ranging from 12 – 22 parliamentary seats is very close to the estimate given by the former Bank Islam Malaysia chief economist, Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajudin at the Singapore Regional Outlook Forum last month that BN was likely to win only between 97 and 107 of the 222 parliamentary seats – yielding for a PR victory with a majority ranging from eight to 28 seats.
The fifth scenario is my dream results for the 13GE, i.e. PR winning with a good and comfortable majority of at least 125 parliamentary seats (i.e. a majority of 28) – with a distribution of 45 MPs for PKR and 40 MPs each for DAP and PAS.
Although UMNO/BN seems at present to enjoy an edge over PR, the 13GE is going to be a very tight race and the general election campaign itself will be the final determinant as to which coalition will win in the race for the Federal Government in Putrajaya.
That there is no surety that UMNO/BN is going to win the 13GE is best seen from the numberless flip-flops of the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak in the past two years agonising on when to dissolve Parliament, as he is just not confident that he would not go down in history as the last Umno/BN Prime Minister to fulfil the RAHMAN political prophecy.
Early last month, Najib had thought he was ready to dissolve Parliament and hold the 13GE when he approved the “secret weapon” for the 13GE, spending RM3.5 million to invite the Korean pop superstar, Psy, to Penang for BN Chinese New Year Open House, to swing the electoral tide in his favour.
However, Najib lost such confidence when his Psy initiative was drowned in a sea of “No, No, No” not only in Penang but reverberating throughout the country since the political and public relations disaster of the first magnitude in the Psy and Gangnam Style appearance on Feb. 11.
The last University of Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) polls conducted between Dec. 26 and Jan. 11 reinforce the forecast that the outcome of the 13GE is too close to call, as the difference between those who believe BN can beat PR in the 13GE has been slashed from 25% in December 2011 to 5% in January 2013.
Respondents who believe that Pakatan Rakyat can take Putrajaya in the 13GE have steadily climbed from 18% in December 2011 to 21% in April 2012 to 30% in Sept. 2012 and 37% in Jan 2013.
In contrast, respondents who believe that Barisan Nasional can win the 13GE had fluctuated from 43% in Dec. 2011 to 49% in April 2012 to 44% in Sept. 2012 and 42% in Jan 2013.
Respondents undecided or unsure who could win the 13GE fell from 39% in Dec. 2011 to 30 per cent in April 2012 and 26% in Sept 2012 and 21% in Jan 2013.
On this Umcedel scenario, all that is needed for PR to beat BN in the race to Putrajaya in the 13GE is to win over more than five per cent of the undecided or unsure respondents, which stands at 21% in January 2013.
The latest Merdeka Centre poll on the Prime Minister’s approval rating is the new headache for Najib and his strategists.
In a poll between January 23 and February 6, just before the Chinese Year and his “Psy” disaster as well as the string of embarrassing developments for the Prime Minister (the continuing Royal Commission of Inquiry hearings in Sabah, the criticisms by private investigator P. Balasubramaniam, carpet trader Deepak Jaikishan and former police chief Musa Hassan), Najib’s popularity rating has slipped down further two percentage points from a similar survey held last December.
According to Merdeka Centre, the decline is mainly attributed to a four-point drop in satisfaction among Malay voters, down from 77 percent a month earlier.
Chinese satisfaction with Najib’s performance was at status quo at 34 percent, while Indian support dipped one point to 75 percent.
Najib’s dissatisfaction rating has increased by two points to 32 percent – making it the highest since he took power in 2009.
March 8, 2013 will furnish the final test whether Najib is so lacking in confidence about the 13GE that he must brave the infamy of being the one and only Prime Minister in Malaysia to drag out Parliament’s tenure over its five-year natural term and to fall back on the constitutional provision to allow him another 50 days of “breathing space” as Prime Minister as constitutionally Parliament’s five-year term is calculated from its first meeting (i.e. on April 28, 2008) and not the previous general elections on 8th March 2008.
In 2008, the political tsunami in Peninsular Malaysia came down from the north with PR scoring victories in Penang, Kedah, Perak and Selangor.
In the 2013, the political tsunami must go up from the south, creating new breakthroughs in Johore, Malacca, Negri Sembilan, Johore and Terengganu.
Pakatan Rakyat has set the 13GE goal of winning more than nine parliamentary seats in Johor, as together with breakthroughs in Sabah and Sarawak, to pave the way to Putrajaya in 13GE and more than 19 state assembly seats to deny UMNO/Barisan Nazional two-thirds majority in the Johor State Assembly.
Are these goals achievable?
Dear Ubahans,
Let the numbers work out themselves. Let us not be distracted. Roll up your sleeves, and fold up your pants. Let us work as hard as we can, for what we believe in. We cannot do better than our best. Malaysia expects that each men and women give of their best to save her, save her from the tyranny and corruption of UMNO / BN.
We must change the tenant at Putrajaya. GE 13 is coming soon. He can run, but he cannot hide forever. Work! Work! Work! and more Work! We are very near the finishing line and the trophy is within grasp. First to GE 13, then to Putrajaya.
Change we must. Change we can. Change we shall.
LKS, your dream scenario could very well be true!
A landslide for PR!
In fact, UMNO/BN contributes in no small way to this scenario with their brazen in-your-face, couldn’t give a damn, never ending corruption, scams and scandals.
And squandering taxpayers’ money to score brownie points by dispensing money to all and sundry as though it’s an institutionalised ATM machine!
All this is done against a backdrop of a National Debt of hundreds of billions of Ringgit!!!
This last fact alone is enough to earn them an ignominous demise at the hands of long victimised Malaysians.
PAKATAN RAKYAT MUST GEL NOW. DO NOT SPOOK THE VOTERS, THOSE ON THE FENCE IN PARTICULAR. NEVER TO SHOOT OWN FEET NOW.
If unavoidable then go back first principle of PAKATAN TO UNSEAT Umno/bn !
BE PREPARED !
Hope the PR will win with majorities and making history with shockwaves to the entire world!!! Tired and sicken to see those BN/UMNO suckers sucking around for their own good…
If PR won, Malaysia can strive forward as to restore its former top 5-position in Far Eastern Asian region, esp. Top-2 in S East Asia. It’s unbelievable to see Malaysia is losing to Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Ironically, if BN suckers won, Malaysia is going to lose to Maymmar (Burma) and Cambodia or Laos soon. Certainly, cost of living would be much-much higher as those BN suckers are going to impose all kinds of funny taxes and raise prices to replenish those gave-away that are supposed to be their own pockets for their own greed…
Change is essential as to save Malaysia, smart Rakyat…
One cannot deny that the Internet has played an important role in shaping the political landscape of the country (that is why Najib called GE13 a social media election). Tsunami 308 was partly the result of exploitation of the Internet by the Opposition as an effective campaigning platform. Five years have passed since Tsunami 308. Today, household broadband penetration in the country has exceeded 66.7 per cent which is a drastic rise compared with just 22 per cent in 2008. It is interesting to see whether the 66.7 per cent broadband penetration rate will bring about a Super Tsunami in the upcoming general election as the Internet is still seen as an opposition-dominated domain.
Its very important for Malaysia and the rakyat that PR wins this coming GE. Its actually NOT that important for those who are involved in the opposition whether its PR or others. They are all heroes already for fighting a just and necessary cause. They have made a mark in all Malaysian lives and driven their point home in history of this country and the nation’s conscience and moral fibre.
For Anwar, it would only be glorious if he made it to PM but he has already made the point that he deserved the PM job so getting it is just icing in a course of life whereas Mahathir has lost the battle that his cause is all just and moral- its perverted and tainted and history will remember it as if only he did not. He and his family may be richer than any Malay could ever and may ever imagine but he will go down in Malaysian history that money and power isn’t everything.
For the rest of PR, they will all be remembered, no matter if they fail, what being Malaysian truly is even if so many have forgotten and can’t remember. Whether we become what we can or we fail to be, history will remember the Malaysian species of what it should be because of PR..That is priceless and truly a life well spent.
A change of govt. is best achieved with a landslide.
This is to send traitors and racial and religious extremists is very clear, undivided and strong message….including total rejection of rampant corruption, abuse of power, gross mismanagement and etc..
All boils down to voters and a change of govt is their dream…..their main priority….especially for the 3 million young voters….who are inspired ..understand…the power of People’s Power over elected politicians.
For decades….voters voted blindly…voted to strong opposition…under the strong atmosphere of a racist country..ruled by dictators.
For decades….millions lived in silence .helpless..with sadness and shame.
You can say..the teaming of keDAILan…DAP..and PAS…was a dream came true…..for millions upon millions…middle aged and old folks….who are Malaysians first….race second …from 1st day Merdeka….and seeing Umno b keep twisting …to disunite Malaysians…..failing now….and out come “1 Malaysia” slogan to fool Malaysians….Najib style!!
Millions of seasoned voters had their dream came true at 12th GE…seeing the light of the tunnel at the other end for the first time…in 55 years…a true democratic country in the making.
Bala and Deepak is keeping Najib busy with their Altantuya’s murder details.
Najib’s silence will not win votes for him!!!
42 days left….yet Najib keep mum on 13th GE date….all know why la.
I just returned from overseas to make sure I will not miss voting.
///Malay rights group Perkasa has challenged former private investigator P Balasubramaniam, who has just returned to the country to campaign for Pakatan Rakyat, to furnish evidence to back his allegations that Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is involved in the murder of Mongolian woman Altantuya Shaariibuu.///–Malaysiakini
Was Perkasa’s statement meant to be response from Najib who has been accused in front of a thousand person audience? Shouldn’t Najib sue Balasubramaniam so that the court will demand evidence on defamation charge.
What does Perkasa think it is; police, AG, or judge? The murder case ended with two persons, who did not have a grudge against Altantuya Shaariibuu whom they did not know, or them known to her before the killing, convicted of murder. Surely the convicts did not kill for fun. Who pay them to do the killing?
A BN win with 2/3 majority is highly, highly unlikely!!
Malaysian Chinese should remember who is the guy who waved his kris (in 1987, operation lallang time) and want the kris drinks Chinese blood !!
So they vote Who ??
A BN win is highly unlikely……period!!
The delay by Najib for 4 years and seems to be to the last day…speaks for itself.
Even through cheating with votes…the win is not guaranteed.
Go..read so many have confessed in assisting registering illegal voters….and exposed the codes…thus making watchdogs arresting illegal voters easier….especially in Sabah.
Veri veri soon, 08 Mar will b here, 5 full years after 080308!
D corrupt racist, clutching his keris, is still clueless: 2 CALL or NOT 2 call GE13
PR – R U ReaDY? YES, yes, YES or NO, no, NO
R voters ready with their BROOMs? SWEEP, sweep, SWEEP, ABU
What a timely DEVINE mesej fr above on SATU lagi projek kerajaan UmnoB/BN; also on d FATE of UmnoB/BN in GE13
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/222578
House of cards, domino effect dat cekmates UmnoB/BN 老天有眼不會看錯
This is how the UMNO/BN suckers get rich and be millionaires! They suck projects; then they attempt to restore numerous times… Each time; they suck again and again…
All about The Malay voting pattern , let assume Dapters getting 40 seat ( 100 % win) , BN will still capture 2/3 majority eh
It’s no more races voting pattern.
It’s Malaysians and People Power pattern….and anyone still thinks like chengho that BN will capture 2/3 majority…will be like chengho….an idiot speaking…illogically…shut off from realities in life.