The five-day 66th UMNO General Assembly, which a critic has described as “A five-day orgy of sound and fury”, ended with the UMNO leaders breathing confidence that UMNO/BN are headed to “a resounding electoral victory” – winning back the two-thirds majority in Parliament as well as state power in the Pakatan states of Kelantan, Penang, Selangor and Kedah in the 13 General Election and retaining illegal and unconstitutional power in Perak.
However, the speeches of UMNO leaders after the UMNO General Assembly, particularly the UMNO “eminence grise”, Tun Dr. Mahathir do not bear out this confidence.
Be that as it may, the battle for Putrajaya in the 13GE is going to be a very close one and whoever wins the majority of the four million “middle ground” voters will have the upper hand.
Pakatan Rakyat should focus on winning the over four million “middle ground” voters if we are to succeed in the battle for Putrajaya in 13GE.
For the 13GE, the electorate has increased to slightly more than 13 million voters. There are approximately 3 million new voters in the electorate, 60% of whom are under the age of 30. New voters will comprise 25% of the electorate in the next general election.
The new voters, together with the 10% or so of the swing voters from the 2008 GE, will constitute about 4 million voters in the next GE. These voters will decide on who will govern in Putrajaya after GE13.
It is not sufficient for Pakatan Rakyat to win over the majority of the 3 million new voters to reach Putrajaya. Assuming that the % of votes won by BN and PR among the GE2008 voters remain the same, even if PR wins 70% of the nett new voters, PR can only win 109 parliamentary seats out of 222 parliament seats (Table 1 below)
Table 1: BN and PR parliament seats if PR wins 55%, 60% and 70% of nett new voters since GE2008
| PR’s share of nett new voters since GE2008 | BN | PR |
|---|---|---|
| 55% | 132 | 90 |
| 60% | 129 | 93 |
| 70% | 113 | 109 |
Under the Scenarios in Table 1, PKR would remain the largest party followed by DAP and PAS (Table 2 below)
Table 2: # of PR seats by PR parties if PR wins 55%, 60% and 70% of nett new voters since GE2008
| PR’s share of nett new voters since GE2008 | PAS | PKR | DAP | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 26 | 34 | 30 | 90 |
| 60% | 26 | 36 | 31 | 93 |
| 70% | 32 | 43 | 34 | 109 |
To get to Putrajaya, PR must also convince a larger % of the GE2008 voters to switch their vote to PR. Only if PR manages to win 70% of nett new voters since GE2008 and an additional 3% of GE2008 voters can PR reach Putrajaya with a somewhat comfortable majority of 7 parliament seats (119) (See Table 3 below)
Table 3: BN and PR parliament seats under different scenarios (PR’s share of nett new voters since GE2008 and additional GE2008 voters)
| PR’s share of nett new voters since GE2008 + additional GE2008 voters | BN | PR |
|---|---|---|
| 55% of new voters + 1%GE2008 | 132 | 90 |
| 60% of new voters +2%GE2008 | 124 | 98 |
| 70% of new voters +3%GE2008 | 103 | 119 |
Under the scenarios in Table 3, PKR would remain the largest party followed by DAP and PAS (Table 4 below)
Table 4: # of PR seats by PR parties under different scenarios (PR’s share of nett new voters since GE2008 and additional GE2008 voters)
| PR’s share of nett new voters since GE2008 | PAS | PKR | DAP | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% of new voters + 1%GE2008 | 26 | 34 | 30 | 90 |
| 60% of new voters +2%GE2008 | 28 | 38 | 32 | 98 |
| 70% of new voters +3%GE2008 | 34 | 48 | 37 | 119 |
The factors that have hurt Opposition unity in the past include the following:
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Multi-corner fights as a result of not being able to agree to seat allocation probably cost the opposition at least 2 parliament seats in Sarawak and 2 parliament seats in Sabah in 2008 and perhaps as many as 5 state seats in Sabah.
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PAS passing the hudud legislation in the Terengganu state legislature in 2001 did not stop BN from regaining this state by winning 28 out of 32 state seats and 7 out of 8 parliament seats in Terengganu in the 2004 general election. The hudud issue led to the dismantling of the Barisan Alternative and it took the historic 2008 general election to bring together the three parties again.
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The focus should have been on the ongoing corruption and abuse of power within the BN rather than to push the Islamic state agenda which does nothing to win over the middle ground and swing voters
The emphasis for PR to succeed in the battle for Putrajaya is to win over the swing voters/middle ground by focusing on national issues of importance.
For the new voters and for the swing voters, niche issues which are probably not that important to them will not win them over. For them, the focus is on national issues, including:
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Whether PR or BN can manage and reduce corruption in the country;
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Whether PR or BN can show a new path towards genuine national unity and inter-racial harmony;
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Whether PR or BN can govern more equitably with social justice and economic efficiency;
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Whether PR or BN can reduce poverty among the native population in Sabah and Sarawak and bring more sustainable development to both of these states; and
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Whether PR or BN can usher in a new era of governance where democracy is developed and deepened.
Pakatan Rakyat should not let itself be distracted by narrow issues but focus on the larger picture to win these swing voters and to capture the middle ground to win the battle for Putrajaya in the 13GE.