Mohd Ariff Sabri Aziz | August 23, 2012
Free Malaysia Today
Johor has always been touted as the bastion of Umno, but one wonders if it really is so, given the inroads the opposition made in 2008.
In the 2008 general election, there was a 14% swing to the opposition. What has happened to that swing? It is increasing and getting stronger.
And this has got the menteri besar worried, intimating to his Umno division heads in one meeting that he expects at least nine parliamentary seats and up to 16 state seats to fall to the opposition in the 13th general election.
That means he has not discounted fully the swing to the opposition.
He has acknowledged that, at best, with all the efforts and the bribery that Umno has carried out, the party has only managed to claim back some 5%.
That means there is still around a 9% swing with the opposition.
Based on that conservative assumption, the nine parliamentary seats are indeed in jeopardy.
My personal view is that Pakatan Rakyat can win the nine parliamentary seats and more.
Umno and Barisan Nasional is dicey in at least six more seats – Tanjung Piai, Gelang Patah, Pulai, Pasir Gudang Tebrau, Simpang Rengam and Parit Sulong.
Which really means, Pakatan could end up with between nine and 15 seats.
Will Shahrir contest?
Having said that, there is also the Johor Baru seat to consider. JB has a sizeable Chinese population which should prove to be a boon to Pakatan.
The determining factor here would be Umno’s choice of candidates. If Shahrir Samad chooses to retire, then JB will fall to Pakatan.
Shahrir can only be persuaded to stand if the Umno people can stoke his contempt for Anwar Ibrahim.
Shahrir himself is not that confident. He has said privately that most of the faces he sees in JB are not familiar to him.
The other seat which I am interested to see is Pulai. It’s currently held by UDA Holdings Bhd chairman Nur Jazlan Mohamed Rahmat.
Nur Jazlan is a decent fellow but has recently been the victim of Umno’s habit of practising infanticide. It kills off its young talent.
When Nur Jazlan came up with a strategy of raising money for UDA with the redevelopment of the Pudu Jail area, he became a victim to the ravenous appetite of Umno warlords ever on the lookout of using government to make tons of money.
And that has not gone down well with him and his supporters.
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The writer is a former Umno state assemblyman but joined DAP earlier this year. He is a FMT columnist.
So Maahathir is so wrong again:
Malaysians are indeed better off without the BN devils we know (which he acknowledges).
But where he got so awfully wrong is to impute that we don’t know about PR. Looking at PR in Penang and Selangor, for instance, Malaysans dare say loudly, we are worlds better off with the angels we know in PR than the noisy devils in BN.
Aiyyooo…yo, Mahathir, you are becoming like semi-value alreadylah.
All the losses contributed by BN would help, but the states that would make the real difference would be Sabah and Sarawak. That’s the real battleground.
Don’t forget to field Teoh Beng Hock’s sister in Labis. That should put an end to the aspirations of Chua Jr.
Johore …..the sure sure BN State has become quite sure…sliding daily towards…not so sure for UMNO b.
The “Angel” must be succeeding to deliver the good news to Johoreans… to open their eyes and minds not to be fooled by crooked racists anymore.
Truths is working very well in Johore.
In the cities..in Muar..Batu Pahat…Kluang…Segamat….Mersing….and Johore Baru….almost all voters want change of government from yesteryears till now.
Malaysians are sick of race and religion politics and the 9% swing to PR is the starting of a greater swing at 13th GE.
UMNO started from Johore.
Te original founders are Johoreans…not Tunku.
UMNO b should start all over again from Kedah…..Mahathir’s hometown.
However…even a small by election…Kedah folks rejected him…7th position amongst 8 contesting…so shameful…..but we all know how thick his skins are.
Now his son is pleading to Kedah folks not to shame his father anymore and vote him in 13th GE…so that he can be MB when BN govern again.
What a childish dreamer he is..asking all to ignore how he became a multi billionaire with his father stealing RM1.2 billion EPF money … to bail him out.
I cannot forget how Mahathir answered CNN lady reporter…how his son got the billions..and he answered….”My son is smart.” ..insulting all smart hard working Malaysians in the private sectors.