History’s shifting sands

The revolutions sweeping the Arab world indicate a tectonic shift in the global balance of people power

by Mark LeVine
Aljazeera
26 Feb 2011

For decades, even centuries, the peoples of the Arab world have been told by Europeans and, later, Americans that their societies were stagnant and backward. According to Lord Cromer, author of the 1908 pseudo-history Modern Egypt, their progress was “arrested” by the very fact of their being Muslim, by virtue of which their minds were as “strange” to that of a modern Western man “as would be the mind of an inhabitant of Saturn”.

The only hope of reshaping their minds towards a more earthly disposition was to accept Western tutelage, supervision, and even rule “until such time as they [we]re able to stand alone,” in the words of the League of Nations’ Mandate. Whether it was Napoleon claiming fraternité with Egyptians in fin-de-18e-siècle Cairo or George W. Bush claiming similar amity with Iraqis two centuries later, the message, and the means of delivering it, have been consistent.

Ever since Abd al-Rahman al-Jabarti, the great Egyptian chronicler of the French invasion of Egypt, brilliantly dissected Napoleon’s epistle to Egyptians, the peoples of the Middle East have seen through the Western protestations of benevolence and altruism to the naked self-interest that has always laid at the heart of great power politics. But the hypocrisy behind Western policies never stopped millions of people across the region from admiring and fighting for the ideals of freedom, progress and democracy they promised.

Even with the rise of a swaggeringly belligerent American foreign policy after September 11 on the one hand, and of China as a viable economic alternative to US global dominance on the other, the US’ melting pot democracy and seemingly endless potential for renewal and growth offered a model for the future.

Trading places

But something has changed. An epochal shift of historical momentum has occurred whose implications have yet to be imagined, never mind assessed. In the space of a month, the intellectual, political and ideological centre of gravity in the world has shifted from the far West (America) and far East (China, whose unchecked growth and continued political oppression are clearly not a model for the region) back to the Middle – to Egypt, the mother of all civilization, and other young societies across the Middle East and North Africa.

Standing amidst hundreds of thousands of Egyptians in Tahrir Square seizing control of their destiny it suddenly seemed that our own leaders have become, if not quite pharaohs, then mamluks, more concerned with satisfying their greed for wealth and power than with bringing their countries together to achieve a measure of progress and modernity in the new century. Nor does China, which has offered its model of state-led authoritarian capitalist development coupled with social liberalisation as an alternative to the developing world, seem like a desirable option to the people risking death for democracy in the streets of capitals across the Arab world and Iran.

Instead, Egyptians, Tunisians and other peoples of the region fighting for revolutionary political and economic change have, without warning, leapfrogged over the US and China and grabbed history’s reins. Suddenly, it is the young activists of Tahrir who are the example for the world, while the great powers seem mired in old thinking and outdated systems. From the perspective of “independence” squares across the region, the US looks ideologically stagnant and even backwards, filled with irrational people and political and economic elites incapable of conceiving of changes that are so obvious to the rest of the world.

Foundations sinking into the sands?

Although she likely did not intend it, when Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, warned Arab leaders in early January that they must “reform” lest their systems “sink in the sand” her words were as relevant in Washington as they were in Tunis, Tripoli, Cairo or Sanaa. But Americans – the people as much as their leaders – are so busy dismantling the social, political and economic foundations of their former greatness that they are unable to see how much they have become like the stereotype of the traditional Middle Eastern society that for so long was used to justify, alternately (and sometimes simultaneously) supporting authoritarian leaders or imposing foreign rule.

A well known Egyptian labour organiser, Kamal Abbas, made a video telling Americans from Tahrir that “we and all the people of the world stand on your side and give you our full support”. It is a good thing, because it is clear Americans need all the support they can get. “I want you to know,” he continued, “that no power can challenge the will of the people when they believe in their rights. When they raise their voices loud and clear and struggle against exploitation.”

Aren’t such lines supposed to be uttered by American presidents instead of Egyptian union activists?

Similarly, in Morocco activists made a video before their own ‘day of rage’ where they explained why they were taking to the streets. Among the reasons, “because I want a free and equal morocco for all citizens,” “so that all Moroccans will be equal,” so that education and health care “will be accessible to everyone, not only the rich,” in order that “labour rights will be respected and exploitation put to an end,” and to “hold accountable those who ruined this country”.

Can one even imagine millions of Americans taking to the streets in a day of rage to demand such rights?

“Stand firm and don’t waiver …. Victory always belongs to the people who stand firm and demand their just rights,” Kamal Abbas urged Americans. When did they forget this basic fact of history?

From top to bottom

The problem clearly starts from the top and continues to the grass roots. Barack Obama campaigned for the presidency on the slogan “Yes we can!” But whether caving in to Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, on settlements, or standing by as Republicans wage a jihad on the working people of Wisconsin, the president has refused to stand up for principles that were once the bedrock of American democracy and foreign policy.

The American people are equally to blame, as increasingly, those without healthcare, job security or pensions seem intent on dragging down the lucky few unionised workers who still have them rather than engage in the hard work of demanding the same rights for themselves.

The top one per cent of Americans, who now earn more than the bottom 50 per cent of the country combined, could not have scripted it any better if they had tried. They have achieved a feat that Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak and their fellow cleptocrats could only envy (the poorest 20 per cent of the population in Tunisia and Egypt actually earn a larger share of national income than does their counterpart in the US).

The situation is so desperate that a well known singer and activist contacted me in Cairo to ask organisers of Tahrir to send words of support for union workers in Wisconsin. Yet “Madison is the new Tahrir” remains a dream with little hope of becoming reality, even as Cairenes take time out from their own revolution proudly to order pizza for their fellow protesters in Wisconsin.

The power of youth and workers

In Egypt, workers continue to strike, risking the ire of the military junta that has yet to release political prisoners or get rid of the emergency law. It was their efforts, more than perhaps anyone else, that pushed the revolution over the top at the moment when people feared the Mubarak regime could ride out the protests. For their part, Americans have all but forgotten that the “golden years” of the 1950s and 1960s were only golden to so many people because unions were strong and ensured that the majority of the country’s wealth remained in the hands of the middle class or was spent on programmes to improve public infrastructure across the board.

The youth of the Arab world, until yesterday considered a “demographic bomb” waiting to explode in religious militancy and Islamo-fascism, is suddenly revealed to be a demographic gift, providing precisely the vigour and imagination that for generations the people of the region have been told they lacked. They have wired – or more precisely today, unwired – themselves for democracy, creating virtual and real public spheres were people from across the political, economic and social spectrum are coming together in common purpose. Meanwhile, in the US it seems young people are chained to their iPods, iPhones and social media, which has anesthetised and depoliticised them in inverse proportion to its liberating effect on their cohorts across the ocean.

Indeed, the majority of young people today are so focused on satisfying their immediate economic needs and interests that they are largely incapable of thinking or acting collectively or proactively. Like frogs being slowly boiled alive, they are adjusting to each new setback – a tuition increase, here, lower job prospects there – desperately hoping to get a competitive edge in a system that is increasingly stacked against them.

Will Ibn Khaldun be proved right?

It now seems clear that hoping for the Obama administration to support real democracy in the Middle East is probably too much to ask, since it cannot even support full democracy and economic and social rights for the majority of people at home. More and more, the US feels not just increasingly “irrelevant” on the world stage, as many commentators have described its waning position in the Middle East, but like a giant ship heading for an iceberg while the passengers and crew argue about how to arrange the deck chairs.

Luckily, inspiration has arrived, albeit from what to a ‘Western’ eye seems like the unlikeliest of sources. The question is: Can the US have a Tahrir moment, or as the great Arab historian Ibn Khaldun would have predicted, has it entered the irreversible downward spiral that is the fate of all great civilizations once they lose the social purpose and solidarity that helped make them great in the first place?

It is still too early to say for sure, but as of today it seems that the reins of history have surely passed out of America’s hands.

Mark LeVine is a professor of history at UC Irvine and senior visiting researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University in Sweden. He has authored several books including Overthrowing Geography: Jaffa, Tel Aviv and the Struggle for Palestine (University of California Press, 2005) and An Impossible Peace: Israel/Palestine Since 1989 (Zed Books, 2009).

20 Replies to “History’s shifting sands”

  1. //Indeed, the majority of young people today are so focused on satisfying their immediate economic needs and interests that they are largely incapable of thinking or acting collectively or proactively. Like frogs slowly being boiled alive, they are adjusting to each new setback-a tuition increase,here, lower jobs prospect there-desperately hoping to get a competitive edge in a system that is increasingly stacked against them//Mark LeVine

    Mr. Mark,

    You are right on the mark, telling all the problems we Malaysians are going through and still enduring for over 50 years in just one short paragraph of your writing!

    In Malaysia, the day when we can think and act collectively and proactively is not too far away. We are waiting for the hundreds of thousands of people like cintanegara to wake-up from their deep slumber.

  2. A word of caution. Demo-crazy, can be as bad as flawed corrupted Democracy. The people of North Africa must think carefully. Mob rule is no rule. There is always a bigger mob to correct the smaller mob. It is just craziness. Mobs can be easily manipulated by hidden hands with hidden objectives. We all wish for freedom, human rights and truly elected government free of corruption. Is mob rule the way to go? My fellow citizens in North Africa, think carefully and act responsibly.

    1. But in Malaysia and in certain places we all know who actually rules. Being a politician means that you know the good people as well as the bad people which include mobsters. They are people as well with their way of thinking and their feelings and they are like anyone else except with the inclination towards the bad. They have the right to vote as well. Macau and Hongkong do not have exactly a clean record. But from Hongkong, Malaysia is learning how to fight corruption. In fact go to any western country, they have Chinatown and who is in the Chinatown if not some people with a history. Why do you think they run away to such a faraway place ? So the people in North Africa and in Middle East fighting for freedom should know what sort of freedom they need. Like in Malaysia, will the people accept and practise democracy in all its’ purest forms ? Till today, they will say no. Not the time yet. May be in the future. In the Middle East and elsewhere there has been dictatorial rule for years and years and years. The people are so used to seeing the same face year in and year out and you can just imagine if there is a new face. Do you think they can adjust themselves to this new face ? Even in Malaysia, remember how people cried when Tun Mahathir called it a day. They cannot accept the new Prime Minister that easily.

  3. Demo-crazy or not,there is no other option for the oppressive arabians who had gone through the same authoritarian rule of law like us.Imagine if malaysian with only the majority left with this getting smaller share of cake..as bad as nightmare..mamak will hurriedly get out by taking his first flight out of bolehland by dragging Mak Siti tied onto secured rope securing around her children n the older juniors.

  4. Hv we not heard of scandalous accounts of unbridled plunder, corruption n malversation of public funds, more so during an election
    NR, UmnoB/BN getting bolder n openly offer bribes 2 voters in d coming 2 buy erections
    NR n UmnoB latest secret weapon in buy erection rallies – RM!

  5. “Look at my face until you are satisfied. Do I look like a liar? I don’t, right?”
    Dis best quote of d year just won an Oscar
    Next better quotes:
    “All I ask is for 30 minutes (to vote for Syed Ibrahim). If he wins tomorrow, whatever problems you have, go and knock on his front door. If he does not do anything, tell me”

  6. That’s Rosmah talking and crying.
    This proves Najib needs mother’s help…and now wife’s help.
    Leave him alone…Najib can be very unpredictable and dangerous..to loose the election.
    Look at Dottie’s face? I say look at her EYES!!

  7. The wind of changes for Muslims are surely blowing towards Malaysia.
    Najib ignored Hilary Clinton reform advises..and quoted her saying how happy she was seeing Malaysia progresses.
    He also forgot Hilary’s advise to him to get rid of corruptions.
    Najib is trying to fool Arabs in Middle East ..with his usual half truth and nonsensical talks.
    He was speaking to politicians.
    If he spoke at the road side…he will be stoned.
    Yes…Arabs are waking up and well educated.
    And when Muslims are getting better in Education…it spells the end of jungle laws and corrupted dictators.
    Muslims are fighting hard to be at par with Europeans…right now…and be respected at par..once and for all.
    The moment all racists Muslims supporting Najib wake up to think sensibly….it is time to get rid of corruptions..races issues.
    Malaysia have been a sick country…far too long under UMNO B.

  8. // In the Middle East and elsewhere there has been dictatorial rule for years and years and years//

    history has taught us dictatorial rule does not work anywhere on this planet, so we should continue with it until the people here revolt? you might as well keep on using the square wheel until you grow smart one day while everybody else is using the round wheel. Yes continue with your crutches and nep until your grandchildren are paying for it in the future.

    the time for half measures are gone. we live in an era where constant change is a must to survive. Only the dinosaurs like mamak and the umno goons don’t understand this bcos of their gross corruptions. they are drunk with it and kept us all under their immoral grip of fear and emergency laws. like mobarak, gaddafi and all those tyrants, the fear they tried to impose on the people is backfiring on them. they are living in fear now instead of the people. it just shows if people are united they can overthrow any tyrants with weapons in just 2 weeks or so.

    so will pakatan learn from the Arab revolution? be united and stop the bickering over small crumbs on the floor.

  9. “Look at my face until you are satisfied. Do I look like a liar? I don’t, right?”

    The best answer to the above question is : “You don’t look like a liar but you have the word ‘LIAR’ written all over your face”.

    George W Bush and Tony Blair do not look like murderers, but look at their blood-stained hands.

  10. Old Viagra Chua does not look like an ad#lterer, but look at his dvd.

    Old mamak looks like a mamak, but he claims he is a malay.

    Old Ling Long Sick and Chan Kong Choy look like angels, but look at how PKFZ’s RM12.5 billion disappeared.

    You cannot judge people by looking at their faces.

  11. //But in Malaysia and in certain places we all know who actually rules. Being a politician means that you know the good people as well as the bad people//-cemerlang

    Yeah, we sure as hell know who actually rule Malaysia. They are the Melayu celup who use race and religion to fool the Melayu tulen into believing that without them as their ‘goalkeeper’ the si mata sepit and the si kaki botol will take over the government and they will become powerless like the Melayu Singapura. The reason is of course, so that they can continue to plunder the country’s wealth and stashed their ill-gotten billions in foreign countries including Singapura-a country which the crooks themselves ”accuse” of oppressing its Melayu citizens!

    Those Melayu celup a.k.a UNMOputras are shameless and view matters in different lights. To them ”good people are bad people, truths are lies and lies are truths and those who support the opposition are traitors while those who support UNMOB are patriots” They are the fools whose thinking faculty needs greasing, but most need to be overhauled.

  12. // you cannot judge people by looking at their faces//-k1980

    But sometimes we can with a high degree of accuracy. Whe Mamak first became PM, I viewed him as someone dis honest and cannot be trusted. Look as ‘deceitful eyes’ and that famous sinister smile when he talks. The Chinese say: ‘kan sin’ Very frightening O

    As for RM, her face does not expose her lying tendency, partly maybe to her years of experience in telling lies. But the very frichtening part is her facial features have a starkn semblence to Mamak’s. Both can be outrigt cruel when situation demands it. All you out there be very careful O. But one thing for sure RM look like Angela Yam-sweet when in a relaxed mood.

  13. Economic imbalance between races alone and without more does not cause racial friction and more importantly, it will not bring the government of the day down. Look. The collapse of the suharto government was not caused by racial economic imbalance. The friction in all likelihood is caused by politicians who decided to stoke racial resentment for personal milege. That is what umno as a political party have been doing officially for decades in this country to maintain its power base. So far so good for umno despite having actively and openly stoked racial resentment for so long.

    But economic imbalance between the people and elite politicians will definitely bring about deep resentment that leads to uprising against the government. And when the people rise the government of the day must fall, even military governments. People’s power is mightier than the guns! That is the lesson we all can learn from the on-going mid-east crisis. So umno. Beware and learn something.

    When a man on the street who has to work 16hrs a day to earn three may be four thousand ringgit a month sees an umno man with no relevant experience or background securing projects after projects worth billions he would be deeply resentful. And when he having got himself drenched in the rain and then dried in the heat of the day sees a certain short fat rose marching into an upmarket complex with a stream of police and bodyguards tailing, he would be burning with hate. He can be anyone now standing in the crowded street. How many are there in the crowded street who share his resentment and burning hatred? No one knows precisely. Then again until 5 weeks ago, no one knew the extent of anti-government ground swell in the various mid-east countries. Events of recent weeks tell us that it must be astronomical. The calm surface tells one nothing about the strength and ferocity of the undercurrent down below.

  14. Sotong….you can keep on have negative thoughts.
    Since Merdeka time…we are Malaysians..equal to all Malaysians.
    Someone wants to make you a servant or a coolie or a slave?
    What are you going to do?…keep complaining or do something.
    If you do not have the guts…to fight for your freedom….go lick Najib bolas and be safe.
    We read nothing but complaints by you…like a sissy.

  15. ///Instead, Egyptians, Tunisians and other peoples of the region fighting for revolutionary political and economic change have, without warning, leapfrogged over the US and China and grabbed history’s reins. Suddenly, it is the young activists of Tahrir who are the example for the world, while the great powers seem mired in old thinking and outdated systems.///–Mark LeVine

    The people in the Middle East are able to show the people’s power because they are Muslims. Islam is not just a religion, it is a way of life and a very political one. The spontaneous gathering could only occur when they were sure of who their real enemy was. Najib and company was convinced that because UMNO had taken actions since NEP to mold Malays into thinking that non-Malays are their natural enemies, corruption by politicians is fair game. Indeed unless Malays in Malaysia decide that democracy should ensure fair share of national resources, rather than crumbs left over by UMNOputras, they would support status quo. Nevertheless the Malays here do not have to move to Tahrir square of Malaysia since they can decide in private at the voting booth in GE 13.

  16. ///The top one per cent of Americans, who now earn more than the bottom 50 per cent of the country combined, could not have scripted it any better if they had tried. They have achieved a feat that Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak and their fellow cleptocrats could only envy (the poorest 20 per cent of the population in Tunisia and Egypt actually earn a larger share of national income than does their counterpart in the US).///–Mark LeVin

    Statistics is the best tool to create warp thinking. It sounds bad to have one percent of the top earners earned more than 50% of the country combined as if that one per cent hoard all the food, medicines and essential of life and deprived the 50% of their rights to live a full live. If that one per cent did not obtain government monopolies, and they created wealth through the provision of goods and services what are beneficial to those who are interested to purchase one can neither fault them for their ability to create wealth. It would be quite a different matter if they have operated the AP system there. Besides the top earners pay taxes, and many give to charity.

    Egypt and Tunisia seems to have better share of the country’s wealth than the corresponding Americans. Curiously, there has not been any migration from the US to Egypt and Tunisia. In this particular comparison, the absolute number of average income in any currency unit would make better comparison. Yes, get the price level involved too, and compute the purchasing power of the different currencies for proper comparison.

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