Bridget Welsh
Malaysiakini
Nov 5, 10
The BN deservedly should claim and savour yesterday’s victories. The combined gains in Galas and Batu Sapi show significant swings across ethnic minorities, which proved to be decisive in determining the final outcome.
This is the first major turning point in the political stalemate between the BN and Pakatan Rakyat among all of the 13 by-elections since March 2008.
From the ground, it was clear that the BN had the advantage in both seats, and I expected both wins. The results, however, are even larger than expected.
What happened?
It is important to understand that these two seats typify a particular form; they are mixed semi-rural seats, like Hulu Selangor. They represent the opposition’s political periphery – places where the opposition won unexpectedly in 2008 – and, importantly, are the current battleground for national power.
The BN’s double victories showcase their ability to win this type of seats and hold onto its dominant national position in government.
Allow me to elaborate some factors that shaped the results in what I have grouped under the ‘semi-rural’ category combined with some changes in the national political landscape.
1) Machinery and the personal touch
The BN was ready for these two battles. They had, as one party worker described, the “guns and bullets” to deliver the results. The preparation for the campaign began early and unlike the opposition which did not develop momentum until days into the campaign period, the BN was off and running from the onset.
The opposition was stretched and imported their party workers from nearby, as they lacked effective local networks. The fact that the two by-elections occurred on the same day weakened the collective Pakatan effort and points to the weakness of Pakatan nationally.
What is particular to semi-rural seats is the presence of the personal touch. BN’s strong local networks provided voters in these areas with people whom they could connect to and trust. The grassroots house-to-house approach worked well in these semi-rural areas.
In contrast, the deluge of Pakatan ‘outsiders’ did not translate into effective machinery on the ground, particularly since most came for only a few days and campaigning lacked the needed personal touch.
2) Political infighting
What weakened the opposition further was infighting, especially in Sabah. Granted, both sides had divisions, but Umno and BN were able to manage them better. They focused on their target – victory.
Cooperation was noticeably missing in the opposition, with people staying away from supporting the team. This was most obvious in Batu Sapi, where physical violence occurred at the start of the campaign, but this occurred as well in Galas, where PAS was internally conflicted about the need to win Galas and expend resources.
The divisions in the opposition extended beyond internal component parties to the relationship among the opposition actors, as tensions simmered over the choice of contesting in Batu Sapi and dissatisfaction over the pace of the campaign in both places.
One factor in particular that overshadowed the contests was PKR’s party polls. The Batu Sapi contest showed the negative impact of non-consultative decision-making. Many in PKR are still smarting from the perceived bully tactics of the West Malaysian party leaders. The failure to put aside personal ambitions and build bridges for the good of the party contributed to the losses in both places.
The electoral contest was a proxy arena for the internal party fight between an approach that is exclusionary and one that is more inclusive and decentralised. In order to win the political periphery, the opposition needs to be united. The unity in the BN made their victories decisive.
3) The role of local warlords
BN gains should also be credited to the local warlords – Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and Musa Aman. These leaders reinforced the personal touch and provided the organisational base and local understanding for effective campaigns. They minimised infighting. What is striking here is the deficit of local leadership on Pakatan’s part.
The BN has returned to its approach of working effectively through decentralised decision-making and it earned dividends.
4) Limited appeal of national leaders
The crucial role of local intermediaries stands in contrast to the minimised impact of national leaders.
While Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin was on the ground, and should be credited for his success in the campaign, the absence of Prime Minister Najib Razak due to chicken pox was striking. He won by not going to the ground and making the campaign about the BN as a whole, not his persona or personal leadership.
For Pakatan’s national leaders, their presence did not yield the expected results. This was most obvious in Batu Sapi and for PKR leader Anwar Ibrahim, who was not able to move the party’s vote share to striking distance of victory as the BN won three times more votes.
While these leaders did win support, the contests showed that they cannot do it alone. The two by-elections are a wake-up call to Pakatan leaders to move beyond focusing on their own personal successes and issues and to lay out the policies and platforms to address the needs of the electorate.
Voters are rightly concerned that for Pakatan – with the slogan ‘The road to Putrajaya’ – the focus is on winning personal power for themselves, as it remains unclear exactly how supporting them will benefit voters.
5) Better multi-ethnic messaging
This issue connects squarely with the need to have consistent and clear messages. The ‘change’ rhetoric has lost its appeal, not only in Malaysia as Tuesday’s US election results show. Now it is more about the delivery and the content of the change.
One area in particular involves multi-ethnic cooperation. Pakatan’s approach has been to showcase individual leaders from different ethnic groups as a symbol of their ability to work together across races. Yet, Pakatan has not laid out a clear multi-ethnic platform that addresses the concerns of all groups in areas of rights and religion.
A focus on personal relationships is not enough. In Galas, questions percolated about Malay rights, for example, and PAS was not able to effectively address the concerns of voters who are less politicised and less familiar with the debates.
In Batu Sapi, the concerns of older generations of Sabahans regarding the new citizens were not adequately addressed, and in fact the focus on winning the support of the new Filipino voters backfired in a reduction of support among Chinese and Malays.
In the racialised polity of Malaysia and in mixed seats, appeals to individual groups need overarching platforms on how groups can co-exist peacefully. BN’s 1Malaysia rubric – although also limited in actual substance – provided much greater security to voters. This framework provided some traction in semi-rural areas, as it did in Hulu Selangor.
Another dimension on the messaging in these two seats is the fact that many voters in semi-rural areas do not read this article. They do not use online media and are less politicised. The BN’s use of the mainstream media gave it an advantage, and allowed it to reinforce its more accessible multi-ethnic framework and slogan.
Yet, this highlights the fact that connecting to the semi-rural periphery is a challenge for Pakatan.
6) Relative economic prosperity
It is particularly a challenge given that economic conditions in many of these semi-rural areas have changed. The issues of inflation and decreased commodity prices are no longer as salient.
Palm oil, rubber and logging provided relative gains for voters in these seats, as most – except the hardcore poor – believed that conditions had improved economically and credited the BN – and Najib – with these gains. Bread and butter issues are the main concern of voters in semi-rural areas.
The Chinese swing-back to the BN, estimated at 5% in Galas, can in part be contributed to better economic conditions there. A similar swing among Batu Sapi voters did not occur, as 3% more supported alternatives in Sabah, but these votes were split and the BN won the lion’s share of 42% of the Chinese vote.
The opposition faces an uphill task winning national power when economic conditions favour the incumbent government.
7) Young generation swing
This dynamic played out especially among younger voters, who did not support Pakatan to the same level as before. There was understandably lower turnout among younger voters who did not come back to vote, given that this election happened on a weekday. Yet, even among those who voted, BN support increased.
This was most obvious in Galas where an estimated 7% of younger voters moved toward BN. In Batu Sapi, younger voters moved to BN by an estimated 5%. This is an important national trend, given the large number of younger voters nationally. They want jobs and better wages. BN has capitalised on this more effectively.
8) Goodies
This brings me to my last point, intentionally placed last. There is a tendency to focus on the ‘goodies’, and excuse losses due to the uneven playing field in the allocation of resources.
This is always a factor in by-elections and clearly took place, although many voters are still waiting for their promised items. This support only goes only so far, and cannot exclusively explain the comparatively large gains that the BN made.
Winning the political periphery
The two by-elections show that the BN is gaining ground, and Najib’s policies are having an impact. They, however, are more effective in semi-rural areas – where development concerns, comparative economic prosperity, less political engagement and information, and less machinery and connections for Pakatan are present.
The victories cannot be extended to all seats, especially in the urban areas, and they are not a national phenomenon. Yet, they do suggest that the BN’s hold on national power is stronger and gaining. The momentum for the opposition has stopped as they have failed to win the political periphery of semi-rural mixed seats.
The BN was noticeably breathing easier – Batu Sapi and Galas have given them good reason to smile. But Sarawak – with its mix of seats – will provide a much better national test.
Special thanks to Tan Seng Keat for his insightful reflections in discussions after the by-election results in Batu Sapi and Malaysiakini reporters on the ground in both by-elections for their excellent reporting. Happy Deepavali to all.
DR BRIDGET WELSH is associate professor of political science at Singapore Management University. She was in both Batu Sapi and Galas to observe the two by-elections. Welsh can be reached at [email protected].
Talking about giving people choice, what did Pakatan Rakyat offer? Confusion.
Another factor in the success of BN was that their mouthpiece Ibrahim Katak was locked away in the ICU.
PR have lost the edge after 2008…
Except in Penang, the rest of the states have been so so….
They may cry sabotage, no money, etc etc. etc…but you get this sought of chance only once a life time and no matter how tough it is …you have to make it count…
This is especialy so in Selangor, the richest state in Malaysia and should have been given to someone more aggressive in administration as in Penang.
Buisnesses in Selangor are not moving. Many government agencies are paralysed because of UMNO moles. You need to be tough like LKY to get the tough get going…..
Lost opportunity…dont see PR coming out of this disaster unlessthey get a really charismatic leader (not Anwar- he cant manage PKR, that’s for all the world to see)
NUMBER ONE REASON WHY PAKATAN RAKYAT LOST IN GALAS, GUA MUSANG, KELANTAN
PAS DEMOLISHED THE CHURCH OF ORANG ASLI!
PAS IS WORSE THAN UMNO BECAUSE UMNO ALLOWS THE ORANG ASLI TO REBUILD THEIR CHURCH BUT PAS IS STILL TRYING TO STOP ORANG ASLI FROM REBUILDING THEIR DESTROYED CHURCH!
PADAN MUKA PAKATAN RAKYAT!
PKR & DAP SHOULD SPEAK OUT WHEN PAS ERR!
PAS, PKR forget “their” victory of during last GE was substantially because the call for People Declaration and a PR Government. They thought they are the one with the charm to attract voters.
If they cannot show the People they are working sincerely towards a PR government as per People Declaration, they cut their road or even continuation of what they are having. If they remain to be “minor” in the future, they will be taken in one by one by BN.
No more Politics, religious, power or Party-minded but to work for the People in the authentic PR way!!
Learn your lessons PR. This are the same people who will make the difference in the next GE. No more excuses. Get your act together, if you wish to get to Putrajaya.
I still blame the cause of the two lost recent by elections by the electorates.Wake up man,if u can’t,pls try to do it for the sake of ur generations who are queueing up in the lines after u.They need new good goverment to provide them the best education and opportunity to be succeed in life.No more money and greed could buy you!Change for better or stay put for the worst to come!God bless all of us.
It looks like more and more Malaysians can be bought by as little as RM250 or a dinner.
BN deserves to be happy with the results and it also can be a blessing in disguise to PR….knowing voters reject them now….and for what reasons…all have spoken.
As for me..I stay put to vote against CORRUPTIONS and true DEMOCRACY…for the sake of the young generations.
When TV3 made the 1Malaysia Hari Raya ad, who was the first one to complain?
It was PAS! PAS deems the TV3 Hari Raya ad to be too westernized, un-Islamic and Satanic!
PAS is the main reason why Sabahans and Sarawakians did not vote for Pakatan Rakyat in the last general election.
UMNO allows Adam Lambert to perform in Kuala Lumpur but PAS protested. Do you think youngsters (who are pop fans) would be interested to vote for Pakatan Rakyat? Naaah…
PAS got to change.
Another reason why PR lost is PR had failed to play the development card. PR should brief the electorate how the party is going develop the constituency once it grabs power. I believe in Chinese majority areas, it is important to brief the residents how their business or income can be improved once developments (e.g. building of roads, shop lots, hawker center etc) are being carried out.
PR are banging on the hopes that Malaysians understands UMNO B must be voted out for corruptions and applying double standards….so successfully..they were caught surprised that young generation is voting for more entertainments…sick of PAS controls of that and hawkers feel more opportunities to open more eating stalls all over Malaysia with the development plans announced by Najib.
Yes..corruptions and double standards means nothing to younger generation for they are not the victims yet.
This is certainly an uphill battle for PR.
Only DAP can deliver right now.
“Impartiality to this nation people,corruption till national coffer dry up,suppresion of every human right wisdom”=”Retarded and bankrupt nation” .We’ll soon can shake hand and make member with greece.Semua boleh,Malaysia of cause boleh..apa nama..bankrupt,,oops..
Well, with the confusion created within the Opposition and still plenty of Malaysians who do not care a damn, we will be going for the African Tour soon!!! Though the poor blokes in the rural area may be misled by a dinner or some cash, but the majority of the educated still allow things to meander along and certainly we will hit the wall sooner than we think! Even Cambodia with equally poor records in all aspects of Good Gomen got us$1.6 billion for development! And our double -tracking from Gemas to JB isn’t going anyway! the world bank indicated that the average cost of one km of rail construction is us$4 million, what is ours????? with plenty of flat land and minimal tunnel or huge rivers to cross! Maybe we should must for a while; for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar to catch up so that we can compete with them; after all the other Asean Members have alraedy galloped so far ahead, let’s wait for the laggards behind us, we are good neighbours!!
The present malaise in PKR can be attributed mostly to Anwar’s incompetence and off-hand approach in leadership. The multiple mistakes he committed in meeting the BN’s onslaught was so fundamentally flawed and quixotic. His short-gun method of capturing Putrajaya was not only irresponsible and desperate but also ventured on the realm of stupidity. How he relied on BN’s MPs to cross over and underestimated the BN’s capacity not to play dirty confound the imagination of many. And he did it with much fanfare with the revelation of plans and dates. How could a general win a war with such stupidity? This opened the door for the BN to justify their action in toppling the Perak state government. Once he couldn’t deliver on his boast his credibility was damaged beyond repair. His once-upon-a-time invincibility where he could move eyeballs both locally and internationally came a slow halt and turn him immaterial.
His credibility was further damaged when his party, PKR that was supposed to be the guiding light of the coalition was racked with dissension. While the house was on fire, Anwar went AWOL. His refusal to assume the presidency of the party and still wanted to be the de facto leader through a remote-control mechanism exposed his strategy to ridicule. His inherent and naive belief that the BN has any modicum of decency led him to relax on his vigilance against treachery and trickery by both enemies and fair-weather friends. The Sodomy II trial distracted and tied him down unnecessarily and the BN was intent to prolong his agony right until the time when it is safe to call for the general election. Most probably after gaining back their two-thirds majority, the BN would see no further need to pursue the case further. This will appease international critics.
Anwar initial brilliance in forging an alliance and giving the BN a black eye could not be replicated with his yen for grandstanding. From a conquering hero he has become a serious liability. Whether he realises this or not, the coalition is now on the brink of irrelevancy.
As to the double-whammy blows suffered by Pakatan there is no point in crying out wolves anymore because all three parties have not heeded to the peoples’ call for unity and have degenerated into greedy politicians looking only after their narrow short-term interests.
Yeah, nothing much 2 say, what needs 2 b said had been spoken
Just get ready d priest 2 administer d last rites 2 PR, RIP
N d pendatang, get ready boats n gold nuggets 2 leave as boat people on d high seas
The only reason why BN won is because Pakatan Rakyat cakap tak serupa bikin.
It’s final! PR BLEW IT!!!! big time… now the 3rd force by RPK it is
Mr. Lim, To be honest, PR need SAPP because SAPP’s presence will make Sabahans feel that they are well represented in PR. If PR intend to get the votes of Sabahans, PR & SAPP must work together. No more 3-corner fights..
and hopefully PR states government can shows more credibility and results starting from now.. Don’t wait until 13th GE..
just a humble opinion from a Sabahan
The rakyat is getting restless. They are getting anxious at hearing all the infighting especially in PKR and also in DAP Perak. They are wondering if Pakatan can deliver the promises made to the people.
For many, RM 300 for voting BN at this time is better than having no money in the pocket. If Pakatan does not improve on its internal governance, then the next GE can be easily bought by BN. It will be the mother of all buy-elections, but will give Najib the mandate he is craving for.
What the use of crying or blaming!
It’s not the end yet for the real battle starts only in the next GE and that’s the “battle of Putrajaya”.
To win a war, we’ve to play by strategy.
We’ve to confuse the enemy and sometimes make them unaware before we attack them by chance.
Just like in the case of the two by-election.
If PR were to win in any one of them, it’ll only create awareness among BN and could even delay this coming GE as well.
Most of us really can’t wait any further and we’re hoping that the snap election could even be held by tommorrow.
Losing in those two by-elections could also warn PR leaders not to be too selfish and take things for granted.
They’ve to change and play by rules and not act like those dirty Umno fellas.
To all PR team and supporters, let’s accept the defeat as a blessing in disguise and to BN team and supporters, get on boasting and celebrate till the final round, for the “war” is not over yet!
It is very disappointing that the PR did not make use of the chance given to it by the 12th GE mandate to potentially overthrow BN. Internal squabble, complacency and unprofessional conduct led to its natural demise.
8 Reasons? – I think we had already 50 reasons earlier, why Anwar, alas, can’t become PM.
Someone needs to club (no, I don’t use the word ‘beat’ here) the over-arching UMNO-spirit out of him. I think, Anwar is serious, but nobody dares telling him off, telling him that down to his instincts everything is UMNO-molded. It is unbecoming of a coalition of change that some unelected, de-facto, boss decides whom he wants as VP, whom he wants as candidate (Batu Sapi); against all odds. Especially in the relevant East-Malaysian states, people are suspicious of arrogant conquerors from the peninsular. BN is much better placed here, due to some parties with a ‘local’ touch and still delivering the votes.
Yes, this shows how gullible the hare-brained majority of East-Malaysians are: They do vote for some presumed local hero to represent them, though later on will support all BN policies that do not serve Sabah and Sarawak. Be it the Allah-issue, oil-royalties, or whatnot.
My question: What has PR to counter this? As of now, an ‘arrogant’ West-Malaysian flying in and deciding who he wants to represent the electorate of Batu Sapi. I myself would have voted for a decent house-wife instead!
Apart from the Razali factor in Galas and the widow factor in Batu Sapi, there is also a major problem PR’s choice of candidates. The candidate for Galas is badly overweight and lethargic and people see him as unhealthy and slow-moving hence questions on his ability to champion the people’s causes arise. Not to mention the scandal surrounding his recent marriage. In Batu Sapi, PR was desperate in working with YTL, a person who is tainted with corruption and gargantuan gambling debts. Wrong choices of candidates were also made in the last GE, many of whom turned out to be disloyal. I hope PR learns from its mistakes before its too late.