Sibu’s new political awakening (2)

By Bridget Welsh | Malaysiakini

Tomorrow is polling day in Sibu. After days of quiet campaigning, there is now finally a growing sense of excitement. This non-political town is having a national awakening as both sides have gone all out to win voters over.

In Sibu square, BN leaders are making earnest appeals to the voters, while the big guns of the Pakatan Rakyat are gearing up for a final ceramah tonight and concentrating their day’s activities in the pivotal Iban areas.

Prime Minister Najib Razak is making a personal gamble by returning for the second time in the campaign period to appeal for votes, gambling that his popularity wins support.

Traditionally, local factors and perceptions have shaped the outcome in this constituency of 54,695 voters, and they are still relevant. Increasingly, however, national concerns are swaying voters as Sibuans are recognising their important role in the country’s future. And they are feeling a sense of empowerment never felt before.

?In this final lap, the opposition is gaining ground in a contest that was initially firm in the hands of the BN. The DAP, working with its Pakatan partners, now has a real fighting chance.

The BN on its part is doling out goodies, making promises and pushing its resources to the maximum for a win. The cool breeze from the Rajang River and a morning drizzle belies the real political heat on the ground.

Stark choices

Sibu voters are faced with contrasting choices for this campaign. Foremost is the choice to vote for money, or vote for change.

It is a ‘buy-election’ after all and in Sarawak, money politics are the norm. The promises for school funding, flood allocation, new land lease rates (announced last night) are all part and parcel of election promises.

To this end, BN has the advantage of access to three sources of financial muscle: access to both federal and state resources, as well as the personal resources of the candidate.

?Voters have been given ‘grants’ of RM600, longhouse tuai heads allocated RM10,000 to RM20,000 to sway residents, and ordinary voters across the races promised RM100 as an advance on a possible victory, with more cash to come. It is important to understand that these sums are not small change for many impoverished voters.

The combination of development promises – for real problems such as flooding and education – and inflows of cash present difficult choices for voters, particularly those who are less enthusiastic about the ability of the opposition to deliver substantive change.

On its part, the opposition has urged Sibuans to vote with their conscience, appealing for the need for a stronger opposition voice in government, and suggesting that a vote for the opposition will in fact bring about more engagement and resources from federal and state leaders.

The latter is doubtful as neglect of this town is deep-seated, but the reality is that the contrast in approach is becoming sharper as the campaign evolves.

BN corners itself

The BN has slowly created its own dichotomy in this campaign: a vote for delivery or vote for discussion.

Their main attack on the opposition appeals to the pragmatism of Sibuans. In their mantra label on the opposition as “all talk, no walk”, they are focusing on deliverables. This message is couched subtly in a framework that aims to discredit the opposition as a viable coalition partnership and undermine its struggling leadership.

?The defections of PKR members, the Islamic state discussion about the DAP’s partnership with PAS, the court case against Anwar Ibrahim all comprise this frontal attack on the opposition.

Many Sibuans hold deep suspicions of West Malaysia and lack familiarity with national players, and this strategy has confused many voters. This tactic to muddying the waters isn’t quite as muddy as the Rajang River, but it has gained traction as the BN has appealed for support as the prime candidate for effective governance.

Ironically, this approach backfires on BN as it opens the ruling coalition to serious questions about what it has delivered in Sibu over the past years. The decades of dire neglect in the state increase the BN’s vulnerability.

SUPP in particular is seen as weak and ineffective, and this has forced the BN to turn to Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud (who has considerable political baggage from his 29 years in office) and national leaders such as Najib in framing its engagement with the town.

For the opposition, they face a serious challenge of delivering on their promises, and have been cautious in their promises of deliverables. That caution went out the window last night in the final appeal to make sure that Sibu voters have a national voice.

Voters here are reflecting on the difficult choice of whether they want concrete deliverables or a voice challenging the lack of deliverables.

Local loyalties

?These choices are compounded by a difficult decision over the two local boys: the local candidates. It is, after all, a small town with personal and professional ties to both candidates – Robert Lau Hui Yew (left) and Wong Ho Leng (right).

The SUPP is appealing the electorate to vote for the legacy of the late Robert Lau, to remind voters of the boom years and the former tycoon’s contribution to the town.

Meanwhile the DAP has focused on the record of Wong Ho Leng as a fighter against injustice.

The candidates have thus far acted responsibly and avoided personal attacks. The mud in Sibu has stayed in the river instead of being thrown on the campaign trail. This speaks to the shared fraternity and civility of both candidates – both lawyers in a small town – and the quiet dignity of Sibuans in how they conduct their daily lives.

This does not mean that there have not been the occasional swipes, as voters themselves have contrasted the dichotomy of rich and poor, in the upbringing of the SUPP and DAP candidate respectfully.

Both men have baggage, but Robert Lau Jr’s lack of political experience and engagement with the electorate, broadly as well as his party’s extremely poor machinery, has arguably been more weight to carry around. He has yet to capitalise effectively on his strengths as a member of a powerful tycoon family.

Najib’s personal contest

As the awakening evolved in Sibu, there is a growing recognition of the national stakes. Like Hulu Selangor, Najib has made this a personal contest. He has taken a bold risk by putting his credibility on the line.

?This shows some degree of daring from a man who has been touted as overly cautious, and signifies how important this contest in a remote town in Borneo means for his leadership. It also shows a degree of increasing confidence, riding on the impressive first quarter economic growth of 10.1 percent.

The reality is that Najib cannot implement needed economic reforms without a mandate, and cannot introduce a strong economic plan, devoid of a simplistic debate over affirmative action and the NEP, without a clear decisive win.

For Pakatan, this contest has also had real meaning, as a victory here opens up the possibility of winning national power. They desperately need East Malaysian seats to offset PKR defections in West Malaysia to build a credible national alternative.

Voters in Sibu are beginning to understand this difficult choice – to give a mandate to Najib or to open further opportunities for an opposition which badly needs positive momentum.

Deciding factors

Given the choices for voters, it is thus important to lay out what will shape the outcome on this last day.

1) Changing of the playing field

Little attention has been placed on what may prove ultimately decisive: the changing of election dynamics in Sibu.

The movement of one army battalion out of the constituency – lowering the votes usually given the BN – and the relocation of one major pro-DAP Chinese polling station to the neighbouring Lanang constituency, involves potentially over 3,000 votes.

?The movement favours the BN overall, although it may backfire as it tightens the remaining contests. This voter relocation is important in this close contest, and will put pressure on the need for a high turnout on all sides.

The opposition has strengthened its machinery, and now for the first time can assign polling station agents to areas never covered before – some with previous 99 percent victory to BN. This accountability improves the process overall.

Many voters, however, remain fearful their votes are not secret despite the Election Commission’s remarks yesterday which reaffirmed a fair process. Insecurity on the part of many voters remains, as rumours of phantom voters persist.

Tomorrow, the integrity of the election process will be put to the test and it will be the responsibility of the EC to assure that the votes of Sibuans are genuinely and fairly counted.

2) Voter turnout and mobilisation

Every vote will count. This constituency has always had low turnout, less than 70 percent in parliamentary contests, given the high numbers of voters living in remote areas and their “non-political” orientation.

Voter turnout in this race will be very important. Who and how many people come to the polls will determine the outcome.

A high voter turnout in the Malay and Iban areas will favour the BN, where it has traditionally won over 80 percent of the votes. DAP needs the Chinese voters to show up in droves, as they have secured more than 62 percent of their vote in the past.

?I predict that the final majority will be small, less than 3,000 for either side, and thus less than 10 percent of the voters could shape the final outcome.

The major contest now is winning over fence-sitters or newly politicised voters. Voters are engaging like never before, although many remain unsure who to vote for. The BN is relying on financial incentives to mobilise, while the opposition is working on building mood for change.

Given the energy at the ceramah of both coalitions last night, Pakatan is winning support on the ground. The real war will come tonight as the opposition faces off against Najib’s personal appeal.

3) Ethnic swings

The fight for votes focuses on winning key ethnic constituencies. The most contested community has been the Iban.

Usually easily bought over, there appears to be more openness to the opposition this round as concerns over poverty and more communication with younger Ibans working outside have raised questions about the relative living standards of this rightfully proud community.

?Whoever wins this contest will need an Iban swing. Here the choice for money or change is most stark.

The other two major communities are important as well. DAP gains among the Chinese will give them a victory, if they can push their support level above 72 percent. This is where the issue of candidates and deliverables will be most crucial, although more and more Chinese Sibuans are thinking about the national direction in areas of religious freedom and fair representation.

For the Malay community, the stalwart BN base in Sibu, any movement will be a bonus for either side.

This contest has had less of the ultra-chauvinist overtones of other by-elections since March 2008, but it’s still there and percolating over issues of rights, corruption, distribution and charges of Malay betrayal on the part of the opposition leadership.

The BN needs their Malay base more than ever in this round.

4) Local alliances and gambling

In this heated contest tied to voter mobilisation and ethnic swings, local networks factor in.

Friends supporting friends, calling on others to vote, will matter. Indirect and direct ties to parties will matter. Discussions in the coffee shops, churches and children’s day care are intense. Women voters will be decisive as many have not voted before and are less politically mobilised.

Beyond social networks and personal connections to the parties and candidates, the role of the local imam, samseng, clan and professional associations and gambling pools will make a difference.

It is a small town after all, and local leaders and groups have an impact. Traditionally, of these local dynamics the most important has been gambling, as the gaming odds have been manipulated with financial backing to swing votes in favour of one side as voters vote to win their bets in favourable odds.

Given the antipathy of local tycoons – in which the Lau family is a major player – and the closeness of the contest itself, this could also prove important, although this time around, it may not be as crucial a factor as in earlier contests.

Sibuans deserve better

The main gamble that will matter when the contest is over is whether the PM gets his mandate or the opposition gets its momentum, and whether investing personally paid off for Najib or whether bringing in national politics in the form of a multi-ethnic alliance benefited the DAP in Sibu.

?The stakes are high and choices difficult. Sibu voters may be waking up to their national role, but are not sure exactly what they are waking up to.

Like most Malaysians, they want (and deserve) a better, more effective, fairer government that allows them to live in peace and prosperity.

They have a dream. Tomorrow they will choose who they will entrust to carry it out.

31 Replies to “Sibu’s new political awakening (2)”

  1. the underground betting still in favour of dap by 5% margin . the chinese voters > 70 % for dap and 20% from bumiputra for dap .
    BN must woo at least 5% of chinese voters from supporting dap and take another 5% from bumiputra voters .
    Vote for BN , vote for development , vote for harmony , vote for 1Malaysia
    ho leng is too busy with bukit assek no time for sibu
    Vote for Robert Lau, for for BN , vote for 1Malaysia , remember during the nomination day ho leng pumping to vote 1Malaysia..
    Sibu voters not familiar with dap partner pas,adil , ustaz hadi , tok guru nik ajis , hassan ali and especially anwar
    Vote for BN….

  2. Voting for Barisan Nasional-SUPP means :

    1. Voting for cover-up of PKFZ multi-billion scandal

    2.Voting for continuity of corrupt government

    3. voting for the ‘religious bully’ and ‘racial bullying’

    4.Voting for continuous ‘money politics’ which is a norm for UMNO and Barisan Nasional

    5. Voting for continuity of cronyism and corruption if granting of timber concession licences in Sarawak and NCR lands being robbed to by given to the political cronies for ‘plantation/development’ without adequate compensation

    6.Means you think it is appropriate for the ruling government to only allocate funds when there are elections…. no election no allocation….

    7. are you betraying your conscience -“that you can be bought over by certain party in the election?

    8. or do you think that Sarawak do not have anybody qualified to be the Chief Minister other than current chief minister….. in the office for 29 long years and still counting….?

  3. The choice is stark and simple. Voting SUPP is voting UMNO. Voting UMNO means giving them a mandate to continue to plunder the country, continue with their corrupt means and destroy the country in record.

  4. Chengho…the Malay dressed in cheongsam loves gambling.
    He should bet in favour of SUPP with all his savings.
    Loose…not big deal. Just don’t pay and offer backside……telling bookies…”take it or leave it”.
    As for me….this is a election to show how much Sibu votes values their roots and dignity…and not to be fooled by Najib RM18 million gifts to them.
    They should all feel so insulted that Najib is using OUR MONEY ..Foochows money too…to buy Foochows hearts and votes.
    Hulu Selangor is a different story. It works because FELDA Settlers are racists and think Najib stole from Chinese and gave RM100 million to them.
    Yes…..Foochow voters….. RM100 millions to Malays..RM18 million to Chinese.
    Live with the shame…if any Foochow cast ONE VOTE for SUPP…..indirectly..to support Najib and UMNO B.

  5. Vote for CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT.
    Vote for the freedom of young Malaysians and a democratic Malaysia.
    Vote for EQUALITY…FRATERNITY….a MALAYSIAN MALAYSIA.
    Foochow voters in Sibu will bring shame to their Chinese roots…if they cannot see the double standards of Najib government supported by SUPP.
    This time…there will be no excuse for Sibu votes to say….”I don’t know the real truth”
    Does Foochow people in Sibu honestly feel they are equal to Malays under Najib’s government….which is supported by SUPP?
    Do Foochow voters support massive corruptions…to bankrupt our country….by UMNO B supported by SUPP?
    Do Foochow voters in Sibu…love a Malaysian Malaysia…or to be divided and rule by each race…applied by Najib…supported by SUPP.
    Go and sleep and vote tomorrow with clear unselfish conscience.

  6. ///…the underground betting still in favour of dap by 5% margin/// – #1 by chengho
    If what Chengho says is true, then PR/DAP has more than a fighting chance to win.

    I am not dismissive of underground betting’s predictions. These gamblers have high financial stakes; their predictions are based on feed back from feelers on the ground. These predictions can stump even the more erudite analysis/conclusions from political scientist/analysts.

    I don’t find what the pundits predict as that incredible. After all what the PR/DAP needs to win is a mere swing of slightly more than 5% of the voters (including new/younger voters).

    So will Sibuyans embrace Change or go for Status Quo based on periodic monetary blandishments of the ruling government?

    When one talks of “Change” identified with PR versus Status Quo identified with BN, one has to ask (1) is there sentiment for change in Sarawak/Sibu and (2) who and which group stand to benefit or not benefit from change or status quo.

    On (1), there must be some sentiment for Change as evinced by May 2006 Sarawak state general election (preceding March 8 political tsunami of the 2008) when the Rocket for the first time sent 6 representatives to the Sarawak state assembly out of a total of 7 successful Opposition candidates.

    On (2), neither the Chinese (67%) nor Sarawak Bumis (22%) (whose position is hardly comparable to Bumis in Semenanjong) benefit from status quo especially the NEP or Ketuanan! We’re talking of 89% of the electorate has no great problem with change but with considerable grouses of status quo!

    Whilst DAP will get majority of the Chinese vote – its only question of whether low side 60% or high side 80% as what Kit playing “underdog” asks for – the Dayak vote may well be decisive for the outcome of the election tomorrow.

    BN’s advantage here is traditionally Taib’s control of Dayak community leaders and Tuai Rumah (something like Penghulu) making sure they deliver their longhouses votes.This is where BN’s well oiled electoral machinery esp money to Dayak community leaders including RM600 and other grants to each family of 246 Dayak long houses and other development grants are customarily effective. (To Chinese community leaders/educationists BN dishes out RM18 million for the schools).

    Afterall Money and Developmental Goodies are normal. It happens every election and by election. It doesn’t endear BN to them several notches any more. They can dish out because they control national coffers. Its an expected and predictable behaviour all these years. PR too can dish out if they become government.

  7. (Continuing)

    PR also promises if it forms the govt. 20% in oil royalties from Petronas, Sarawakians above 60 years old will receive a minimum of RM100 per annum, NCR land will be surveyed and titles issued, minimum wage of RM830 for Sarawak etc – all these but without the baggage of the NEP and Ketuanan that 89% of the electorate comprising the Chinese and the Dayaks have no advantage but instead plenty of disadvantages from!

    The fact that “Buy” elections have worked in the past and will still work to a large extrent does not mean it cannot become less and less efficacious as time goes by and people especially the younger voters change attitudes like present day….

    True about 300,000 young Sarawakians may be working in West Malaysia and Singapore and some younger Sibuyans might not make it back to cast their vote as Gawai Dayak is on the 31st May -1st June but being exposed to exposures in internet and voices for change in Semenanjong they would have communicated some of these sentiments to their friends and kinfolks in Sibu.

    So the Question : what’s new?

    Well we have Najib’s personal charm and people orientated approach making 1st time, albeit “hello good bye” fleeting 3 minute visit to Tua Pek Kong temple with his 1 Malaysia approach. However Sibuyans are parochial and arguably not that enamoured with West Malaysian politician’s charm perceived interfering with local politics especially if his local comrade-in-arms – the white haired Rajah (Taib) – is less popular and waning influence. Whatever inclusiveness in 1 malaysia message is seen neutralised by UMNO’s acquiescence to TDM/Perkasa’s well publicised efforts to counteract it.

    Whats new again (for or against BN or PR) in relation to Dayak vote that may well be decisive???

    It may or may not be the “Allah issue” so far down played. The BN bungled here, the effects will be seen in this by election if it proves a political cost to swing – and thats all it takes – slightly more than 5% of the total votes, or otherwise.

    More than 50% of the 54,695 Sibu voters are Christians. The Dayaks forming about 22 per cent of the voters, and whose votes are decisive, are primarily Christian using the word ‘Allah’ in their worship. They have to reconcile how they benefit from recent developments of the Bahasa Indonesia holy Bible being burt and the use of the word Allah being legally/politically challenged in East Malaysia.

    Will this tip their support even in the face of money being thrown at them through their community leaders and Tuai Rumah?? PR/DAP only need support for this community to make up overall slightly more than 5% of total votes to swing the deal!

    Best of Luck for tomorrow that the Pundits are right!

  8. “Like most Malaysians, they want (and deserve) a better, more effective, fairer government that allows them to live in peace and prosperity.”

    A vote for BN is a vote for Ketuanan Melayu and all you Chinese suckers will pay through your nose, one way or the other.

  9. Give first and take back later…

    Before you know it, you would have paid many times more than the RM23 million that you have received. Money just don’t fall from the sky.

  10. Let’s see whether the Christian community will forsake Jesus Christ for the sake of RM23 million! If they do, let’s not talk about the Allah issue anymore because it is all too hypocritical.

  11. I will not use religion to fight religion.
    This is falling into Najib’s trap.
    UMNO B have misused Allah. Let them do it.
    We need people to vote with clear conscience for a change in government….for a united Malaysian Malaysia….leaving religion out..as religion is not free under UMNO B.

  12. Najid 1Malaysia is just an eye wash scheme to get votes from the non-malays .At this age we should not be fooled by such simplicity acts of entrapment, misconception of reality like saying the economy is having more than 10% growth when the country is running at deficit for more than a decade even china now an economic giant has not reached it.

  13. Sibu voters are faced with contrasting choices for this campaign. Foremost is the choice to vote for money, or vote for change.// Welsh

    A cliché we so often heard. If we vote for change (i.e exercise our vote correctly), money which are legally ours would come naturally. If you vote for money (which to me is quick fixes to structural problems), a year or two down the road, you will be facing the problems all over again. If you vote for money, you will be par!ah again after the election, sitting by watching helplessly the plundering and pilferage that will go on ad infinitum. People must be told of the right choice, not that there is a choice between money and change.

  14. monsterball :I will not use religion to fight religion.This is falling into Najib’s trap.UMNO B have misused Allah. Let them do it.We need people to vote with clear conscience for a change in government….for a united Malaysian Malaysia….leaving religion out..as religion is not free under UMNO B.

    Even a rocket scientist would not understand what the sh!t you are talking about. Stop polluting this blog, can or not, whitered balls.

  15. SUPP in particular is seen as weak and ineffective//welsh

    All component parties of BN except UMNO must not only be seen weak and ineffective, they have to be weak and ineffective. In fact subservience and yielding are the must. That has be the raison d’être of Alliance and BN since its inception (you can ask Lee Kuan Yew about that). The issue is how to stop greedy and stupid people from participating in an arrangement that they cannot win.

  16. Many voters, however, remain fearful their votes are not secret despite the Election Commission’s remarks yesterday which reaffirmed a fair process.’’welsh

    It is a fact that votes are no longer secret either individually or collectively. If they can announced which longhouse, which village, which road and street have voted for PR in the past (as in Hulu Selangor), is that not an intimidation to the voters that the big brother is watching.

  17. This contest has had less of the ultra-chauvinist overtones of other by-elections since March 2008, but it’s still there and percolating over issues of rights, corruption, distribution and charges of Malay betrayal on the part of the opposition leadership.// welsh

    It is that simple, it is a Chinese and Iban majority area so BN would not over play the racist card too much. But the fact remains that BN is racist, favoring one particular community – namely the Malay/Melanau throughout the country and not just in Sarawak. In Sabah it is even worse. Otherwise why you think the Malay/Melanau need no convincing while they have a tough time with Chinese and Ibans.

  18. Congratulations to DAP and PKR for the Sibu victory.

    The people have spoken and they have spoken very loud and very clear. The message is ‘All Malaysian get ready and all PKR components get your act together for GE13!’. With the Sibu victory, the catalyst for the outsed of Umno is ignited!. Come that ausipious date, we the rakyat will drive these thieves and murderers from putrajaya.

    PKR must not be complacent as Umno et al will fight back with all they got in their dirty armoury but with the rakyat behind PKR will triumph.

    Well done people !!!!!!

  19. Sibu win – what does it signifies? Three things.

    First, I take it to be an inroad into east malaysia. It is a tiny step. After all sibu is only one of the many many constituencies there. A lot of work is still needed. Nevertheless, the win signifies one important fact; that the doorway to sabah and sarawak could well be opening up to pakatan – that the cry for change is still very much alive and is now taking root in east malaysia. We must keep up our online effort (like monsterball) and must not lose sight of our objective – the two party system for the country. Keep telling people the truth for truth does not change its colour.

    Second, and of equal importance is the fact that the win will surely rock and shatter the misconceived and misplaced confidence which umno has of its own popularity. Without all the election promises of great things and sans the postal votes, the margin of defeat for umno would have been more significant and decisive. The RM94,000 per vote win (total investment RM160m for 1700 votes) umno secured in HS was bad enough and was in fact no comfort at all. The sibu loss would make them shit in their pants.

    Third and my guess: the loss would now more than ever intensify umno’s internal mud-slingings and would bring them out into the open. Perkasa, ibrahim ali and dr mamak will be made to bear the brunt. Jib would be challenged by din for being too soft towards non-umnoputras esp chinese.

  20. End of Election!!
    Start of Education of Morality, Credibility and What and How the Government should be.

    Morality
    1. How many vote with their consciousness of Rights & Wrongs?
    2. Or, just led by someone or parties or religions?
    3. Or, just led by the physical Angpow? or the Angpow promises by those who had failed their jobs?

    With 50 years of dictatorship, corrupted but play dummy government, why should Sibu only vote out the BN so marginal? A government of worms!!! Because, in the heart of the People, many had got worms as well!!

    Any sincere Party should give Sibu a clear picture of
    a) what had been taken from the People of Sibu or Sarawak or Malaysia
    b) What were budgeted to be used for the area
    c) What had actually been used
    d) MOST IMPORTANT are What they should cost!

    How Transparency is each Municipal on Administration, Budget and Legislation?

    Will DAP. PKR, PAS be Transparent?
    Or, how transparent they are on their existing winning States?

    If PK dare not touch those dripping holes of BN, how could People be convinced that they will administrate the States or Country as it should be and NO Politic??

    MPPJ/MPSJ OWES Subang Jaya a Town Park!!
    MPPJ/MPSJ had helped the Developer in misappropriation of the Common facilities (a Club House and recreational area) of the Wangsa Baiduri in Subang.
    But the Assembly Lady sitting in MPSJ took the old shoes of LHB using their so called Resident Representative (appointed by MPSJ by zones) to so call represent the Residents to manipulate Housing Approval.

    PK government should perform NOW and not to wait until Election than come with promises which have yet to be justified for years to come!!

    PK governments have to handle Complaints and not just having Deaf Ears and Blind Eyes!!
    If they really care to prove their good Governorship and not just Politicians with words!!

    A change of Wine and NOT ONLY BOTTLE!!

  21. Mahathir and Perkasa is now advocating abandoning the Chinese vote. They are not reader of Chinese history. What happens when the Chinese towkays work with the proletariat? We have a long strong history when the gloves comes off and pretention stop. Or what happens when the Jews were persecuted by the most successful despot in the 20th century?

    Go ahead Mahathir and Perkasa – see what happens when you strip off the racist pretension.

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