By Ong Kian Ming | Malaysiakini
Last Sunday, I woke up in Durham, North Carolina to the news that BN was on its way to victory in the Hulu Selangor by-election with a small majority of approximately 1,500 votes. The final majority was 1,725 in BN’s favour.
A week later, as I sit here in Petaling Jaya, I’m still somewhat surprised, perhaps not so much by the fact that BN has emerged victorious in this crucial by-election but by the way in which this seat was won.
I had earlier predicted, with some confidence, that PKR’s Zaid Ibrahim would win this tough and hard fought race by a margin of between 1,000 to 1,500 votes.
My prediction was based on the following three assumptions in regard to racial voting: (1) that BN’s Malay vote share would not exceed 60%, (2) that its Indian vote share would not exceed 50%, and (3) that its Chinese vote share would not exceed 30%.
The polling station results showed that first two of three assumptions were wrong and that the BN’s Chinese vote share was far below that which was anticipated.
I had anticipated a small swing in the Malay vote in favour of BN, from approximately 55% to 58%. The swing in Malay support is consistent with a larger, national trend of Prime Minister Najib Razak’s increasing popularity among the Malay electorate.
I had assumed that the presence of split voting in favour of Zaid and the control of the Selangor state government by Pakatan would be able to prevent BN’s Malay vote share to rise above 60%. Even the last-minute handouts to the Felda settlers did not alter my assumption since these voters already vote for BN in large numbers in previous elections.
Using returns at the polling station level, I estimated BN’s Malay support at a surprisingly high 66%, still lower than the estimated 70% garnered at the state seat level in 2008, but most definitely higher than the upper limit of 60% that I thought the BN could achieve.
The anticipated Malay/Umno backlash against the selection of an MIC candidate did not materialise. The galvanising of the local Umno machinery in support for the MIC candidate was certainly surprising, especially given the initial poisoned political environment.
Indian and Chinese go separate ways
I had anticipated the unpredictable Indian vote to break in favour of the opposition by a 55% to 45% margin. I would not have been surprised if the Indian support for BN had gone up to 50%. Instead, the BN Indian support went up to approximately 54%.
Again, the Indian backlash from local factions who were supportive of G Palanivel did not occur perhaps because the former Hulu Selangor MP was promised the position of a senator. The enthusiastic and friendly demeanour of the MIC candidate, P Kamalanathan, probably helped swing the BN Indian support above the 50% mark.
Finally, I expected the Chinese vote to swing against the BN to perhaps 30%, a swing of approximately 5%, compared to the 2008 general election. Instead, my estimation of the BN Chinese support dropped to approximately 18%.
This level of Chinese support is reminiscent of the Bukit Gantang by-election, where the PAS candidate and former Perak MB won approximately 80% of the Chinese vote.
While Pakatan was successful in limiting BN’s Malay support in Bukit Gantang to less than 60% – an important factor in accounting for Nizar Jamaluddin’s victory there – it was not able to replicate such a feat in Hulu Selangor. But still, if prior to polling day, someone had said that the BN’s Chinese vote share would fall to 20%, most people would not have anticipated a BN victory.
Finally, a short note on the youth vote. While it is true that BN won the majority of the polling streams where younger voters cast their vote, one has to remember that most of these polling streams were in Malay majority areas.
In other words, it is hard to differentiate the overall Malay swing in favour of BN from a more specific claim that the younger voters were returning to BN in disproportionate numbers.
Furthermore, there was still a significant differential between the levels of BN support among the older and younger Malay voters (even though both groups of voters supported the BN at levels in excess of 50%).
Political repercussions for PKR
I have already said that I would not play the role of Monday morning quarterback and dissect, with a fine-tooth comb, the reasons for BN’s victory (or Pakatan’s loss). I do not find the kitchen-sink approach of throwing out a bunch of non-mutually exclusive factors or reasons particularly helpful, especially when it is difficult to ascertain the magnitude of importance for these factors.
Instead, I will discuss some of the political repercussions of the result, for BN as well as for the opposition.
I have struggled somewhat in deciding whether the Hulu Selangor by-election result was more crucial to the BN or to the opposition. Again, one could make arguments for both sides. My conclusion is that Hulu Selangor hurt the opposition, especially PKR, more so than it benefited BN. I say this for a number of reasons.
Firstly, Zaid Ibrahim, a man whom many thought was capable, in the medium to long term, of possibly leading PKR, if something should happen to Anwar Ibrahim, and by extension, the opposition coalition as a whole, has taken a significant but not mortal hit.
His inability to win over the Malay vote (or at least minimise BN’s gain among the Malays) will certainly have damaged his leadership credentials, especially among the ranks of disgruntled PKR leaders and members, who dislike Zaid for one reason or another.
It is not surprising that Zaid has chosen to contest the Hulu Selangor by-election results since this can potentially create the impression that the contest was won with ill-gotten political advantages and by doing so, salvage some of his political capital.
Zaid is down, but not out for the count. Not yet. He would probably stand a better chance of winning an urban seat in Selangor or Kuala Lumpur in the next general election where the issues which he is best positioned to bring up as a parliamentarian are more valued.
Secondly, the political pressure on Khalid Ibrahim will continue to pile, especially from within the ranks of certain PKR leaders who are hoping that he will be replaced as the menteri besar, sooner rather than later.
Unfortunately, many of these PKR leaders may not have considered the very real possibility that the battle to succeed Khalid may be a lost cause if Pakatan cannot win enough state seats in the next general election to maintain control of the Selangor state government.
Thirdly, the floundering PKR, which has suffered a deluge of defections and resignations since March 2008, did not receive the much-needed confidence boost that it needed as a sign of internal and external validation.
Perhaps, PKR will take this loss as a sign that things cannot proceed as they are within the party. But the post-election blame game has already indicated that this cannot be taken as a given.
Internal weaknesses
Ironically, PKR’s position within Pakatan may take a further hit in the unlikely, but not impossible event, that DAP manages to win the upcoming Sibu by-election.
All eyes will be on PKR to see how they respond to this electoral setback. The perception is that Anwar has somehow lost the plot in managing the party that was set up to champion his cause. The accusations that Anwar is more interested in traveling overseas to rub shoulders with foreign dignitaries than to pull up his sleeves to build his own party from within will undoubtedly continue.
Like it or not, even as PKR matures and new leaders emerge, this party is still Anwar’s to lead. If he can rally the party’s leadership around him, it is still not too late to introduce serious institutional reforms and bring in new blood within PKR in order to strengthen the party for the next general election.
The leadership of PKR would do well if they focused on their own internal weaknesses rather than to blame BN for carrying out the same by-election campaign strategies which have been part and parcel of the BN playbook for the past few decades.
ONG KIAN MING is ecstatic to be back in Malaysia for good after six years in the United States. He holds a PhD in political science from Duke University.
I insist that PR has no chance of winning GE 13. The only chance now PR has of taking Putrajaya anytime soon is for a things to turn bad first for this country before they break up. Its not impossible or even unlikely to happen.
Nevertheless, its pointless actually for people to suggest what PR or PKR should do. They have a long list that they should address. BUT all the things they do will not change anything unless this country go downhill which it will. The question is can Anwar hold PR together before that happens.
The future of this country depend on fate, not politician or anyone else hand because there is no enough talent, responsibility and courage around and BN leaders certaintly are not those things.
We have a broken system that is the bottom line and it will run into trouble. It should never have been broken in the first place and it should not have been that easy to break. A 15-yr kid out with friends at mamak store should not end with death and the police being able to deny it in the face of overwhelming evidence.
This country cannot help itself. It must suffer for its failures..I hope to be proven wrong..
The only problem with Ong Kian Ming fine professional report is….he forgot Najib used more than RM100 million to buy Felda settlers votes.
The leadership of PKR have also learn a lesson.
Khalid is doing exactly like Lim Guan Eng…..and dirty politicians are natural and found everywhere….in all huge political parties.
The bigger and stronger that party becomes…the more possibilities of some trying to upset and weaken it…is there.
PKR leaders have learn few lessons….but that does not mean the overall support for change i government have weakened.
By-election and General Election…two entirely different prospecting and scenarios with different results….for it is impossible for Najib to bribe all Malaysians.
So go and talk in campaigns….what have Najib and his hypocrites got to say….drinking and gambling again…to smart voters?
Yes…it boils down to voters who can feel for Teoh Beng Hock….Mongolian model….Kugan and 15 year old Amin…just to name a few.
It boils down to voters…..are they concluding PKR politicians are liars and UMNO B politicians are all Saints.
It boils down to voters….thinking as Malaysians first and his race second….wanting a Malaysian Malaysia…true unity and no corruptions.
It boils down to voters vote selfishly for personal benefits and way of life….and not unselfishly for the country and people.
It boils down to voters…can see clearly….UMNO B..MCA and MIC…against keDAILan…DAP and PAS.
It boils down to voters…hungry for CHANGE….or NO CHANGE.
VOTERS for CHANGE are daring and confident…level headed Malaysians.
VOTERS for NO CHANGE are illogical or lack of confidence to be man enough to try something else…that guarantees no corruptions.
It boils down to Malaysia….being laughed at..by the whole developed world or respected sincerely….as clearly seen from non corrupted country.like Singapore who does not have any natural resources…except good given sincere non corrupted government.
We can see….all countries around us have grown by leaps and bounds against Malaysia…due to CORRUPTIONS….taken very seriously.
Can you imagine Malaysia sending few to death for cheating consumers…like we know China was doing….on the milk case…that killed few babies?
That’s how serious China is to corruptions…and look at what it is today…with more than RM1.2 billion population.
If you look at the whole world and can understand….our country with 27 million population have so many sick men of Asia…truly sick men..created by the devil reincarnated UMNO B founder.
Yes…those UMNO B politicians should be the best Muslims and proud of their achievements….making Malaysia the sick country of Asia.with weaklings….all singing their tunes…like zoombies..or living dead..no feelings..no souls….making Malaysia the happiest country for Lucifer to live in.
My observation on this Hulu Selangor p-by-election is that, PKR is bringing down the whole of PR. DAP can’t do nothing to right the wrongs in PKR. Obviously, PKR needs a major overhaul. I would be very frustrated with the campaign machinery which was very ineffective. Zaid as a candidate also did not do much to recover himself of all the accusations against him. I guess he knew that, there was nothing he could say that can change people’s perception of him. In the end, it was easy to say, I repent and let the people determine-so cliché yea?
I am just wondering what has been done to address the internal problems that occur in PR. But the root comes from the party leadership i believe.
As for PAS, it has shown its commitment to assist in the by-e. Even so, Nik Aziz’s presence still couldn’t garner the support needed to win the by-e.
But in the end, one knows that Kamala, though new that he is compared to Zaid, people prefer him. Not because zaid’s character assasination, but because kamala is a clean politician- i bet. in the end also, people vote for kamala shows that, race does not matter, as in color, or whatever your upbringing is. In the end, too, morality flourish, and that is the direction we want our voters to realize.
PR must now highlight the defects of the GST on the general population once it is implemented. Draw up a table of the prices of goods and services before and after the imposition of GST. Show the adverse effects of GST on the poor in those countries which has implemented it. Then only can PR attract voters to its campaign to oust BN from power.
Was told by reliable source that B-end paid millions to Indian gansters on the eve of HS buy-election to make them to ensure majority Indian voters to vote against Zaid!
Zaid Ibrahim lost because of race-based consideration. UMNO supporters wanted UMNO to continue controling BN candidates to pursue racist policies. Indians voted for Indian candidate whether realising or not that they are only in parliament to vote UMNO policies.
The quality of PKR candidates is suspect and that would affect the final outcome of a general election when the people might not have sufficient information to judge the PKR candidates selected. PKR is not the cause of the failure in the present case as Zaid Ibrahim is known for his past.
A lesson to be learned from HS result. Home ground lost is a setback!
PR is not ready to mount a serious challenge against BN on the road to Putrajaya as a cohesive coalition. When election campaign started, PKR seem overconfident to win HS with little support from PAS election machinery. It seem that PKR led election did not seek support from PAS on the Malay ground; one PAS MP responded this when ask why PAS did not fully activate its machinery.
PKR leadership must continue to rely on PAS machinery for the Malay area in any other election.
The next GE13 result is about how much support PR able to garner from Malay votes; must obtain 45% to reach Putrajaya. PAS role is very significant to achieve this goal.
No doubt that BN won by ill-gotten political advantage
Just a battle lost for PR at this stage
Get your act together PR and come of age
To be ready by GE13 to emerge
As the winner and set a new page
As a ‘govt of the people, by the people and for the people’ adage
‘Finally, a short note on the youth vote. While it is true that BN won the majority of the polling streams where younger voters cast their vote…”
Line 3 and Line 4 belong to BN for all ballot boxes…..the young people believe in 1Malaysia
Najib reach to the young voters….
NOW this is a very serious reason why we MUST vote out the BN in the next elections.
Taking commissions for various purchases can be considered a crime in most countries but most of us can live with some corruption.
When the proposed nuclear power station BLOWS UP or LEAKS, no one is going to survive!
http://malaysiawatch4.blogspot.com/2010/05/say-no-to-nuclear-power-in-malaysia.html